My bets ...

1) There will be no announcement of a 3G iPhone. Period. Apple is too preoccupied with rolling out the current model, and the next iteration roadmap puts its introduction probably after the summer.

2) There will be announcements concerning the next upcoming national rollouts ... probably several. Jobs will want to maintain momentum, demonstrate negotiation wins to those markets that will be the most difficult to win concessions in down the road (already Canada, China, others). He wants to get the press in local markets to do his bidding for him, to build anticipation, to get near-term buyers to wait till iPhone arrives.

3) Lots of hoopla on the SDK. He will not only show how it works, but will have a few new applications good to go (”... and you can download them today”).

4) Probably an announcement of a major iPhone firmware upgrade to support several new functionalities Jobs will introduce (” ... and the new firmware is available today”). Jobs wants to stand good on his promise that regular updates are forthcoming, but importantly, meaningful updates that make the iPhone better (WiFi/.Mac syncing, Bluetooth connection to laptops for use as modem, other stuff)

5) THE big question in my mind is will he announce a new iPhone model targeted at the lower end (again, not a 3G model). iPhone is in a race to get itself established and claim a critical market share BEFORE competitors such as Nokia, others, can roll out a reasonable response to it. There are lots of people who want an iPhone but just can’t afford it the current model and attendant subscription rates. It probably overserves their needs anyway. Jobs will rollout iPhones in a segment-by-segment manner as he did with iPod, careful to minimize disruption to the existing iPhone and not to cannibalize the ongoing iPod lines.

I hope he has a lower end version of iPhone good to go but it may still be too early. Apple may have to have 20-30 operator agreements already established and functioning correctly, other distribution arrangements in place that are necessary to touch more people in more locations, and have the manufacturing and logistics challenges worked out to producing a higher mass-market version of the iPhone.

Of course, Jobs will tout the success of the iPhone to reassure shareholders and to build pressure on operator organizations that they may miss out if they don’t cut a deal soon with Apple.

Other views appreciated.

Mike in Helsinki, welcome to the AFB!

Re: iPhone @ MacWorld

[quote author=“Mike in Helsinki”]5) THE big question in my mind is will he announce a new iPhone model targeted at the lower end (again, not a 3G model). iPhone is in a race to get itself established and claim a critical market share BEFORE competitors such as Nokia, others, can roll out a reasonable response to it. There are lots of people who want an iPhone but just can’t afford it the current model and attendant subscription rates. It probably overserves their needs anyway. Jobs will rollout iPhones in a segment-by-segment manner as he did with iPod, careful to minimize disruption to the existing iPhone and not to cannibalize the ongoing iPod lines.

I hope he has a lower end version of iPhone good to go but it may still be too early. Apple may have to have 20-30 operator agreements already established and functioning correctly, other distribution arrangements in place that are necessary to touch more people in more locations, and have the manufacturing and logistics challenges worked out to producing a higher mass-market version of the iPhone.

I think you answered your own question. I see it as a bit too early to release a lower cost phone. Remember, Apple cancelled the 4GB iPhone soon after release.

I see more products in an iPhone line once most of the developed nations have seen the product introduced. I know in my case, I wouldn’t mind a lower cost phone (without the need for a data plan) for more members of my household. It would bring AT&T more business and Apple a bit of margin. However, I view it a bit like the iPod shuffle. It was introduced to fit a price point otherwise left to competitors but released only after the iPod had reached critical mass in all of Apple’s intended markets.

Mike in Helsinki,

Assume you’re the frequently-cited poster on MacDailyNews who tips those good folks over there to many of the stories they end up linking or commenting about. Welcome—you’ll be a great addition to this board and I think you’ll find it to be a good match for your obvious interest in digesting all of the latest AAPL news.

I agree with you about no 3G announcement at MacWorld. I think total silence about this subject would be problematic, however, so I expect Jobs will once again repeat that 3G is a power hog and that Apple will release a 3G version as soon at it makes sense to do so.

I tend to agree with most of what you wrote regarding the SDK release. We already know Apple is working with some trusted developers and I wouldn’t doubt that some select native 3rd party apps could be demonstrated or possibly even available immediately—even if the SDK isn’t released until Feb or March. This will be a bigger deal for the iPhone than many realize at this time. I say no to iPhone nano (yet) and unfortunately no to AppleTV 2.0 (yet) due to rentals not being in place (yet). I suspect that where there’s smoke (rumors) there’s fire with regard to either a sub-notebook or a tablet.

Opinions and guesses only. Could be dead wrong on all counts. Regardless, glad to have you posting here.

“Assume you’re the frequently-cited poster on MacDailyNews who tips those good folks over there to many of the stories they end up linking or commenting about.”

Hi Lumi ... I do admit that I am the one sending MDN the links when I see something worthwhile to post.

Thanks, glad to join in here.

Hey, just as a side note, your name ‘lumi’ does mean ‘snow’ in Finnish. Any connection there?

Re: iPhone @ MacWorld

[quote author=“Mike in Helsinki”]My bets ..............Other views appreciated.

Welcome to AFB, Mike.  I find your iPhone MacWorld speculation cogent.

Like both you and lumi, I judge a 3G announcement highly unlikely.  I do think we will see some new features that are operating system dependent.  For example, I’d be surprised if we don’t see some of the “missing” features like ability to edit documents.  We know that there was much pressure to get the phone out on time, and surely there were cuts made to make it possible.

I do think we will see news on the SDK and early examples of iPhone 3rd party products. I don’t think Apple is near the finish line on the functionality of this version of the iPhone. I think there is more to come and thus more reasons for consumers to buy the device.

I seem to recall that Intel’s 3g chip isn’t due until the 3rd or 4th quarter.  I don’t have any knowledge of it personally, but I do recall a thread on another site that contended it was headed for the iPhone.  They were especially excited about it’s low projected power usage. Ever since then I’ve assumed that the phone wouldn’t show up until late next year.  Power requirements have always been the reason Jobs gave for not shipping one out of the gate.

Which, if true, mean no matter how much people b*tch and holler, it’s the chip availability that may determine the product release date. So…let’s get on with enjoying our iPhones and let the calendar take care of the rest.

Re: iPhone @ MacWorld

[quote author=“Mike in Helsinki”]My bets ...

1) There will be no announcement of a 3G iPhone. Period. Apple is too preoccupied with rolling out the current model, and the next iteration roadmap puts its introduction probably after the summer.

2) There will be announcements concerning the next upcoming national rollouts ... probably several. Jobs will want to maintain momentum, demonstrate negotiation wins to those markets that will be the most difficult to win concessions in down the road (already Canada, China, others). He wants to get the press in local markets to do his bidding for him, to build anticipation, to get near-term buyers to wait till iPhone arrives.

3) Lots of hoopla on the SDK. He will not only show how it works, but will have a few new applications good to go (”... and you can download them today”).

4) Probably an announcement of a major iPhone firmware upgrade to support several new functionalities Jobs will introduce (” ... and the new firmware is available today”). Jobs wants to stand good on his promise that regular updates are forthcoming, but importantly, meaningful updates that make the iPhone better (WiFi/.Mac syncing, Bluetooth connection to laptops for use as modem, other stuff)

5) THE big question in my mind is will he announce a new iPhone model targeted at the lower end (again, not a 3G model). iPhone is in a race to get itself established and claim a critical market share BEFORE competitors such as Nokia, others, can roll out a reasonable response to it. There are lots of people who want an iPhone but just can’t afford it the current model and attendant subscription rates. It probably overserves their needs anyway. Jobs will rollout iPhones in a segment-by-segment manner as he did with iPod, careful to minimize disruption to the existing iPhone and not to cannibalize the ongoing iPod lines.

I hope he has a lower end version of iPhone good to go but it may still be too early. Apple may have to have 20-30 operator agreements already established and functioning correctly, other distribution arrangements in place that are necessary to touch more people in more locations, and have the manufacturing and logistics challenges worked out to producing a higher mass-market version of the iPhone.

Of course, Jobs will tout the success of the iPhone to reassure shareholders and to build pressure on operator organizations that they may miss out if they don’t cut a deal soon with Apple.

Other views appreciated.

Mike—i think you are spot on what will and won’t be talked about in MacWorld….

I took am fascinated by the iPhone nano idea—we know its in plan—just when!!  i think its probably too early for the reasons that you mention, they want to finalize commercial contracts in each country… and thats going to be a long slog during 2008 as well, but it will be worth it in the long run…

One other thing i expect, is some movement updates re: Apple TV, its long overdue, and if nothing is announced in 2007, it has to be mentioned in 2008, and naturally the rumors of the new form factor MacBook / Tablet / Touch.  I think we all expect a WOW factor moment in MacWorld… and its going to come from a new Mac form-factor unit.

Welcome aboard Mike, keep posts like these coming!

What exactly does the Nano phone bring to the table outside of a lower price? The beauty of the iPhone IMO is that it has a large touch screen that takes advantage of great software to create the best all around user experience. If it’s a much smaller form factor, thus limiting the size of the interface, how will that affect the user? How will the Nano set itself apart from any other similar sized phone? Also, at a smaller size, what features would they have to drop in order to make it work - could it still have a touch interface or would it have to go to some sort of iPod interface?

Cheers,
Mac

Beautifully small
Touch interface
All iPod/iTunes capabilities
No Safari
Widgets
... did I mention beautifully small?

.. just think iPod nano functionality (but in this case with a touch-screen) vs iPod touch.

There are lots of people who want an iPhone but just can’t afford it the current model and attendant subscription rates. It probably overserves their needs anyway.

The Touch fills this niche nicely. No subscription.

[quote author=“danthemason”]

There are lots of people who want an iPhone but just can’t afford it the current model and attendant subscription rates. It probably overserves their needs anyway.

The Touch fills this niche nicely. No subscription.

And there are also people who already own a basic mobile phone that want the phone functionality but not the internet feature. So I believe that a iPhone nano featuring only phone+iPod would have a significant audience.

Hey, just as a side note, your name ‘lumi’ does mean ‘snow’ in Finnish. Any connection there?

No, but I was happy to learn this.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“ChasMac77”]What exactly does the Nano phone bring to the table outside of a lower price?

Beautifully small
Touch interface
All iPod/iTunes capabilities
No Safari
Widgets
... did I mention beautifully small?

.. just think iPod nano functionality (but in this case with a touch-screen) vs iPod touch.

T, how do you envision the touch interface working on much smaller screen? Obviously they’re going to have to make some sacrifices. I’m trying to imagine the virtual keyboard at half the size…

Mac