The wise choice here is that the current iPhone becomes the “nano” and that Aapl introduces 3G and other more featured phones at a higher price point. I would bet that this is going to be the direction.

I think it would be a public relations mistake to release a new iPhone in January, just a month after the holidays. We’re going to have a lot of pissed off people who gave or received outdated iPhones. It would make more sense, imo, to wait until at least April if a 3G phone really is in the works.

I’d be surprised if Apple tried to raise the price for a iPhone ... I think they have found the magic price point .... No doubt a 3G phone is in the works ... but I assure you it will NOT be announced early at Macworld ... it would KILL existing phone sales .... I’d bet Spring ‘08 ... Phones will be in stores the day of the announcement and old phones will be blown out at $259 .... 

I don’t think it’s in Apple’s best interest to offer several models of phones ... the iPhone will be the only phone in the lineup .... 

IMHO  

Here you go.

Eight Predictions for MacWorld 2008

by David Sieger

On Dec. 3rd 2007, Macworld Expo and Conference officially announced the itinerary for MacWorld ‘08 featuring Steve Jobs as the keynote speaker, as previously expected. Keeping in mind that MacWorld is usually the place Apple (AAPL)introduces new lower priced hardware to encourage continued post holiday consumer purchasing, here’s a rundown of products that may be officially unveiled:
- Shuffle replacements - the 3G Shuffle is nearing the end of its product life cycle; we already know Apple is working on replacements, and online retailers reflect substantially less consumer interest in this model versus other iPods as evidenced by sales figures, all leading me to believe new models are on the way.

- New iPods - earlier than expected updates to Classic, Nano and Touch models including higher flash capacities ( 16GB Nano and 32GB Touch ) and other updated hardware features may be possible.

- Entry model iPhone - already confirmed by my insider as to its existence and eventual introduction in 2008. MacWorld may provide an ideal timing and setting for this announcement. More details on Apple iPhone plans from me coming very soon.

- Mac sub-notebook - a number of Apple rumor sites have reported that an ultra-light, 13 inch notebook featuring solid state storage is in the works and may be introduced at MacWorld. While I have no specific insider knowledge on this, a 7-12 inch ultra light notebook with limited solid state storage under $800 ( along the lines of ASUS Eee model ) is sure to spark a lot of interest in the Mac platform by new converts and old Apple followers alike.

- Mac mini - an old favorite of OSX converts, the mini is not being phased out, according to many rumor sites, and will likely receive a total facelift and substantial hardware upgrade. The mini would actually compete for the same consumer dollars as the rumored cheaper sub notebook so expect one or the other but not both.

- A new WIFI connected portable device platform - the chances of this being introduced at MacWorld are slim but Apple is working on one and I’ll have more on this topic very soon.

- Displays - a totally revamped cinema display lineup, including a new 36 inch model, may be introduced. Display refreshes, however, are usually reserved for mid-year and are announced quietly via press releases as these models have a specific target audience.

- Expanded ITMS video downloads - NBC may be out, but according to several Apple rumor sites, a deal with FOX may be announced.

I expect the introduction of at least 2 new pieces of hardware as well as a number of additions to ITMS. We may also get more clarification on the success of iPhone abroad during the holiday season.

twodales, welcome to the AFB!

[quote author=“twodales”]The wise choice here is that the current iPhone becomes the “nano” and that Aapl introduces 3G and other more featured phones at a higher price point. I would bet that this is going to be the direction.

I respectably disagree.

Welcome by the way

I don’t see Apple introducing any new iPhones until late summer.  We will see a 3G but only for the European and Asia markets.  A 3G phone to me is not really new.

Once most of the major industrial countries of the world have the iPhone, Apple will then start to introduce new models.

They will not lower the price but rather introduce a more expensive model.

The nano will not come until 09.  I think they will follow the same road map as the iPod.  The cheaper models came 3 years after the first model.  Apple is not out to make huge market share gains with the iPhone. They said they want 1% and I think they will be very happy with 4%, which I think they can get with the current model.

Macworld will be about video, new MacPros, and cool applications for the current iPHone, along with a possible new device. 

With laptops making such big gains, I am doubtful that Apple is ready to introduce a new ultra portable.  We could see one later in the 2nd half of 08.

just my 2c.

[quote author=“omacvi”]I don’t see Apple introducing any new iPhones until late summer.  We will see a 3G but only for the European and Asia markets.  A 3G phone to me is not really new.

There’s no way a 3G phone would be introduced in Europe and Asia and not the States. Forget it.

There would be such an outcry and damage done to the company’s domestic reputation it wouldn’t be worth it. Seriously.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“omacvi”]I don’t see Apple introducing any new iPhones until late summer.  We will see a 3G but only for the European and Asia markets.  A 3G phone to me is not really new.

There’s no way a 3G phone would be introduced in Europe and Asia and not the States. Forget it.

There would be such an outcry and damage done to the company’s domestic reputation it wouldn’t be worth it. Seriously.

You are correct.

Here is an interesting piece.

SAN FRANCISCO (Dow Jones)—Apple Inc.‘s (AAPL) iPhone may be new to Europe, but concerns about the product’s exclusive distribution contracts aren’t.

Investors and Wall Street analysts have long pointed to how Apple is cloistering the red-hot gadget by striking lucrative deals to give a single operator per country the exclusive rights to sell it.

Now, recent iPhone developments in France and Germany are providing fresh evidence of the longer-term downside of Apple’s exclusive deals, and the conflict between preserving the riches Apple gets by striking them and the sales gains from breaking with that strategy.

Even with its exclusive sales strategy, Apple has sold nearly 2 million iPhones since its debut in late June, according to published figures. That’s despite limiting factors such as a relatively steep price of around $400 and a required multiple-year service contract.

But over the last few weeks, thousands in Germany and France have purchased iPhones that work on virtually any cell network, even though they couldn’t take advantage of exclusive iPhone services the operators created and the iPhones cost four times what they would normally with the preferred service contract.

The brisk business caught people’s attention. In France, 20% of iPhones sold were unlocked despite the exorbitant premium. To some, that’s suggestive of how Apple’s missing out on a much bigger payday by not reaching deals with multiple carriers in each country or selling a more reasonably priced unlocked iPhone.

“From a distribution standpoint, Apple clearly benefits long-term from selling phones that aren’t locked to a single carrier’s network,” said Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research.

Apple declined to comment for this story.

An Argument Grows Louder

Concerns about Apple’s iPhone sales strategy have been around since the iPhone first went on sale in the U.S. through AT&T Inc. (T) on an exclusive basis.

In the U.S., AT&T charges $400 for the phone and requires buyers to sign a two-year service contract, with fees starting at $60 a month.

Apple also has reached exclusive deals with T-Mobile in Germany and France Telecom (FTE), and is expected to reach exclusive deals with operators in Russia and China.

As each deal surfaces, critics contend Apple is better off making iPhone available to as many people as possible. Rather than limit the potential audience through exclusive arrangements, these voices say Apple needs to expand distribution, given how cellphone industry giants are fighting back with cellphones of their own to counter the iPhone.

Apple’s closed system also runs counter to an industry that’s slowly opening itself up, as exemplified recently by Google Inc.‘s (GOOG) open cellphone programming and a move by Verizon Wireless to open its networks to unlocked phones. Verizon Wireless is a venture between New York telecommunications company Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) and U.K. wireless carrier Vodafone Group PLC (VOD).

Of late, these voices have grown more numerous and louder. They point out that in Germany, residents took advantage of a rare opportunity over the last three weeks to buy an iPhone that is free to use on most other cellphone operators’ networks. The unlocked version was the result of a decision by a Hamburg court in early November. Sales were healthy, despite the unlocked iPhone’s $1,465 price tag, which is more than four times what it would cost with a two-year service contract. On Tuesday, after the court reversed itself, things were back to normal, and the unlocked iPhone was pulled from the market.

Meanwhile, telecommunications operator France Telecom reported Wednesday that nearly a fifth of all the iPhones it has sold so far were of the unlocked variety. French law requires operators sell unlocked versions of cellphones.

Earlier this year, AT&T said some 15% of those that purchased an iPhone in the first three months of sales didn’t buy an AT&T service contract, suggesting their intention to unlock it and use it on another network.

“Apple could blow away competitors like Nokia and Sony-Ericsson for years to come if they were not tied down to these exclusive deals,” said Mike Demmick of the London-based cellphone market research firm Dialed-In.

Apple’s Sticking With Strategy

Despite the mounting evidence, Apple and its carrier partners have been doing everything to fight anything remotely threatening these exclusive deals. These exclusive arrangements represent an extraordinary revenue opportunity for a cellphone maker. To win exclusive sales rights, carriers are paying Apple up to 40%, or more than twice the industry average, of what their customers pay for the devices and their service contracts, according to various estimates from Wall Street analysts.

It appears from various estimates, not from Apple, that should Apple hit its goal of selling 10 million by the end of 2008, the exclusive deals will generate about $2 billion, or 6% of Apple’s expected 2008 sales.

Moreover, there are arguments against buying an unlocked phone. Certain iPhone features might be missed out on in order to make the phone compatible to all services. Meanwhile, Apple’s exclusive operator partners have created shortcuts on their network that other, more universal phones can’t incorporate.

It seems, in the short term, nothing is likely to derail iPhone sales. For now, the iPhone is Apple’s fastest seller ever, no easy feat considering Apple makes and sells the iPod digital media player. But despite the short-term positives, there’s a larger concern about Apple potentially blowing a longer-term opportunity.

“I can’t understand why they are doing this,” Demmick said.

Sponge, thanks for the artile. Oh boy - this guy’s resurfacing!

“From a distribution standpoint, Apple clearly benefits long-term from selling phones that aren’t locked to a single carrier’s network,” said Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research.

I knew it was time to stop taking the article serioulsy at that point.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Sponge, thanks for the artile. Oh boy - this guy’s resurfacing!

“From a distribution standpoint, Apple clearly benefits long-term from selling phones that aren’t locked to a single carrier’s network,” said Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research.

I knew it was time to stop taking the article serioulsy at that point.

TRIP Chowdhry…. a short voyage to poverty

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Sponge, thanks for the artile. Oh boy - this guy’s resurfacing!

“From a distribution standpoint, Apple clearly benefits long-term from selling phones that aren’t locked to a single carrier’s network,” said Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research.

I knew it was time to stop taking the article serioulsy at that point.

I saw the same quote and I knew we would get a comment from you.

SJ is a marketing genius.  Without the exclusive contracts there is no way Apple can charge $1000 a phone. 

Most of that 15% sale of unlocked phones is to those who are in countries with no contracts at all. 

He thinks unlocking would increase that number.  what a fool

[quote author=“SNIPUS”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Sponge, thanks for the artile. Oh boy - this guy’s resurfacing!

“From a distribution standpoint, Apple clearly benefits long-term from selling phones that aren’t locked to a single carrier’s network,” said Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research.

I knew it was time to stop taking the article serioulsy at that point.

TRIP Chowdhry…. a short voyage to poverty

A reminder of who we’re talking about:
Link to Trip’s bio

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“SNIPUS”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]Sponge, thanks for the artile. Oh boy - this guy’s resurfacing!

“From a distribution standpoint, Apple clearly benefits long-term from selling phones that aren’t locked to a single carrier’s network,” said Trip Chowdhry, an analyst with Global Equities Research.

I knew it was time to stop taking the article serioulsy at that point.

TRIP Chowdhry…. a short voyage to poverty

A reminder of who we’re talking about:
Link to Trip’s bio

unnecessary tommo.