[quote author=“Mace”]
SNIPUS,

Which price did Doug Kass said AAPL would double from? $150, double=$300.  $200, double=$400.

the Real Money column was published Jan 2 so the price had to be around $195 so he is talking $400.00

[quote author=“SNIPUS”][quote author=“Mace”]
SNIPUS,

Which price did Doug Kass said AAPL would double from? $150, double=$300.  $200, double=$400.

the Real Money column was published Jan 2 so the price had to be around $195 so he is talking $400.00

We have to invite him to the party 2008.  We, the ultra bullish AAPL investors, are thinking of $300, and he, the papabear, is forecasting $400 .

xumbra - Thanks.  You describe a wave four pattern that should end by Jul follows by a sustained rally and then a party in DT home.

[quote author=“xumbra”]But this will also encourage the now fully nuke-armed Wilde Bears into a daily-routine triple-speed AAPL nonstop full shorting mass-mastubation and mass terror.

This will mean wilde rollercoaster outbreaks and movements @ the speed of light -> frequently pulverising most peaceful dayTraders tools and rules, like toothpicks in the mouth of a Moby Dick. High voltage danger -> nukes -> no rules

Layman’s terms indeed, 

Sirozha, you have to remember that the majority of people in this forum are very pro Apple, me included. That being said, these are just our opinions, which have been formed by extensive research and analyzing all available information. I understand your dilemma, since I was once there many years ago. I started investing when I was 24 and I am 44 now. I know you want to make it fast, but the fast buck usually involves higher risk, with this higher risk comes larger swings in price. Many members here count their shares in the thousands so you have to understand the investment . I look at Apple having superior products, coupled with the best CEO in recent history, maybe ever. This is a formula for success regardless of the product. This is a company that operates with zero debt and the sexiest balance sheet on WS coupled with a R&D team that is 2 years ahead of the competition. I have a business degree so you can understand my attraction to this company. This company operates the way I do my own household (no debt) and as you can see with Apple’s growth has been very successful.  You have to determine your own goals and how you think the best way to get there is.  I truly wish you the best of luck going forward, but I can’t tell you to buy or sell and I do not believe any other member here will either. Mark

Great post mbeauch, spot on.

I have to wonder how much of Friday’s disaster is due to a lot of new investors to AAPL and then bailing in panic? Apple has gotten a lot of press lately for busy stores, upcoming MacWorld surge and soon to be outstanding earnings. Look at the number of new posters we have here. What does that all mean? Got me really except that it might be adding a little fuel to the fire. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the tree shaken a bit more tomorrow. I just find it hard to believe that buyers wouldn’t step up soon with all the good news just around the corner.

Mac

I think AAPL will perform well throughout 2008 and going into 2009.  I don’t think MW08 will impact the stock or its perceived value a great deal at this point.  In other words, I think the products introduced at MW08 will be great and sell well, however I don’t think they will be perceived as “game altering” or have the “market potential” as an iPhone.  I think 2QE will substantially and positively impact PPS.

AAPL is really at the leading edge of being a different type of company on many fronts in addition to great and innovative products.  They are at the cutting edge in terms of finance/business models as well.

But let me expand on the products first and then come back to the finance component.  Products wise, AAPL has several, not just one product, at the early growth phase of the product life cycle.  I would even argue that the iPod, with their constant innovations, remains in the growth stage, but not in the early stages of growth.  The bottom line is that the iPod is not in or near the maturity stage.  Translation….the company’s earnings are going to increase.  Even the retail operations are in the growth stage.  Keep in mind these growth stages are not US centric only, they are on a global scale.

In terms of finance, AAPL is not only selling hardware but it is getting residual income from what can be done with its hardware, software and brand strength.  It’s leveraging its brand, R&D, and intellectual property across product lines and revenue streams.  It is deferring income over time to even out peaks and valleys.  It is posting impressive growth numbers WITHOUT taking on debt or acquiring companies.  This growth is organic.  This is a company with a $150+ billion in market cap, but still acts like an entrepreneurial entity.  This is rare.

I seriously doubt there will be a stock split.  There is no need for it.  AAPL sits on a ton of cash; makes a lot of money and doesn’t really need to raise capital at this point.  The downside is that the PPS is getting rich for the average investor and being bought more and more by the big guys.  As a result, I think it is subject to large fluctuations and computer trading.

The downside is this is a different type of company than WS is used to evaluating.  It is a company that is combining hardware, software, technologies, consumer behavior and brand strength to create completely new business models unlike any other company in technology, phones, or media, let alone the combination of all three industries.  SJ/Apple even recognized this and thus eliminated “computer” from their name.  I suspect other companies will try to emulate this over time, but, in the meantime, it’s different and, as a result, it will take some time for it to make sense on WS.  It will also take some time for WS to figure out how to evaluate it.  The good news is there is one common denominator everyone, including WS, understands – earnings.  Apple’s earnings, I believe, will continue to increase.  I don’t think AAPL is completely immunized from the US economy but I think it can weather the storm with great products in growth stages and increasing sales overseas.  However, I think it will take some time for WS to recognize this.

I think a large part of the challenge for PPS is psychological.  I think WS still has memories of AAPL from the ‘80’s and Scully.  I think even then WS saw great potential for AAPL (not necessarily Scully), but thought it didn’t pursue market share, therefore it did not reach its full potential.  I also think WS is having a very difficult time swallowing AAPL current market valuation in relation to its market share in PCs and phones.  The anecdote to this problem will be earnings, earnings and earnings.  This will be coupled with increased market share too.

I also think WS is coming around to better understand SJ.  SJ, I feel is a great visionary, leader, communicator and he truly understands consumer behavior.  I also feel he has matured a lot since his days of starting and running Apple in the ‘80s.  I think his time and Apple’s is coming to fruition right now and will continue for a while.  He has a very clear vision of products and consumer behavior.  To me he appears to be concentrating on products and software that are a part of everyone’s life and entertainment – music, photos, video entertainment.  This too will help weather a downturn, because people will always want to escape and be entertained.  I think SJ’s biggest challenge will be, at some point, convincing the market and Apple enthusiasts, like those on this forum, that Apple will continue to be Apple with SJ.  In the meantime, I feel, he will lead Apple to increased earnings.  This will help win over more and more on WS and thus lead to higher PPS.

[quote author=“ChasMac77”]Great post mbeauch, spot on.

I have to wonder how much of Friday’s disaster is due to a lot of new investors to AAPL and then bailing in panic? Apple has gotten a lot of press lately for busy stores, upcoming MacWorld surge and soon to be outstanding earnings. Look at the number of new posters we have here. What does that all mean? Got me really except that it might be adding a little fuel to the fire. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the tree shaken a bit more tomorrow. I just find it hard to believe that buyers wouldn’t step up soon with all the good news just around the corner.

Mac

I think Friday was panic selling and computer trading.  I also think you are hearing from a lot of new members (like myself) because of the volatility, not because they recently bought AAPL.  In my case, I have been in and out of AAPL since it traded at $20/share (many moons ago).  I think a lot of people are seeking answers/guidance during this period of volatility.  I also think the warm tone and desire of all AFB members to help each other has encouraged many lurkers (me included) to join the dialog. Thank you AFB members.

[quote author=“2Coasts”][quote author=“ChasMac77”]Great post mbeauch, spot on.

I have to wonder how much of Friday’s disaster is due to a lot of new investors to AAPL and then bailing in panic? Apple has gotten a lot of press lately for busy stores, upcoming MacWorld surge and soon to be outstanding earnings. Look at the number of new posters we have here. What does that all mean? Got me really except that it might be adding a little fuel to the fire. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the tree shaken a bit more tomorrow. I just find it hard to believe that buyers wouldn’t step up soon with all the good news just around the corner.

Mac

I think Friday was panic selling and computer trading.  I also think you are hearing from a lot of new members (like myself) because of the volatility, not because they recently bought AAPL.  In my case, I have been in and out of AAPL since it traded at $20/share (many moons ago).  I think a lot of people are seeking answers/guidance during this period of volatility.  I also think the warm tone and desire of all AFB members to help each other has encouraged many lurkers (me included) to join the dialog. Thank you AFB members.

Welcome 2coasts, you put a lot of thought into your post and it is very appreciated. There are so many lurkers out there and I wish more would join you in coming forward to provide their personal insight. The more participation we have the better informed we become. A highlight from your post and mine is the lack of debt and amount of cash. These facts alone separate Apple from most all other companies. Welcome again and I look forward to reading your postings.

The key to sucess is information.  We collectively may possess an understanding of AAPL’s long term appreciation potential base on our strategic insights, but unfortnately we (most posters)do not possess either the tactical information or the resources of the professional traders, MMs, option writers or hedgefunds.  Therefore it is perilous for the weak to fight the strong by short term trading. (Reading posts about selling AAPL to scalp a few points and buying it back at lower prices I find puzzling.  I do not understand how US taxpayers can have any LT success after paying 15% of any profit to the IRS.)

I strongly believe over the long-term that the fundementals win out.  I agree that in a recession, even when there is a flight from equities, some equites will be bought as safe havens.  AAPL could well be one of those select few.  With the continuing weakness in the dollar, stocks like AAPl will look particularly cheap to holders of strong currencies.  Personally I see current weakness as a buying opportunity and I am buying 2010 leaps.  Why margin when leaps provide sufficient leverage.

As an aside I am also accumulating INTC for similar reasons.  Last week’s drop was painful, but when INTC has the world-wide monopoly on computer CPUs, buying more at a 15 p/e is a simple decision.  And following Intel’s well publicised road map simply has increased my confidence in AAPL.  Nuff said, let’s see what Monday’s markets look like.

Someone in the forum reported that last week or the week before the volume of January call options was 600,000 for Apple . I don’t know how to confirm this . But if this is true that is why Apple took a 15 point hit Friday . As soon as this option expiration week is over Apple stock will go right back to 200 . With MacWorld coming up and earnings , only a fool would be out of this stock . If I had any money left I would be buying the s**t out of Apple stock this coming week .

[quote author=“RCooper”]Someone in the forum reported that last week or the week before the volume of January call options was 600,000 for Apple . I don’t know how to confirm this . But if this is true that is why Apple took a 15 point hit Friday . As soon as this option expiration week is over Apple stock will go right back to 200.

Not sure I follow you on this. Can you explain?

mtdoc , I don’t play the option market so your experience can come in handy here , but it seems to me if there was a large number of call options for the month over puts options then whoever held large profits in these calls would be targets for hedge funds to short the stock , making the holder of the , in the money calls , dump their position in order to lock in and secure as much profit as possible before the shorts ran the stock down to much . Then with the herd all trying to unload their , in the money calls , it would drive the stock down that much farther and quicker . Please fill free to clear me up on this if thats not the way a stock can be manipulated by hedge funds using the stocks option position .In fact ,  I wish some of forum members experienced in shorts , selling and buying options , and any other form of investing would start a thread , titled ” stock manipulation 1101 ” and explain how these forms of stock investing can be used to whipsaw a stock and manipulate the stock price ?

Hey guys, as another lurker finding this thread really invaluable, I wanted to contribute a bit as well:

Sure, new products are not a guarantee for increasing stock prices, but nevertheless - it is 99.9% certain that SJ will present a really superslim sub-notebook “iBook Nano” with power-saving Flash-Harddisk containing no moveable parts and iPhone-like touch controls. That name could be only a temporary codename, but could be final as well. Yeah, many of you may have heard that rumor already. Technically nothing really new with Tablet-PCs and Flash-Harddisks in Sony and Toshiba notebooks already around for some time (just as my Windows Mobile Pocket PC phone with touchscreen, more powerful CPU, GPS, tons of 3rd party software, etc.) - but not yet in that combination and with supersleek Apple design yet. So it could still create quite some “whoaaa”-effect, expecting SJ to present it - as usual - theatrically (never doubted his marketing skills). So it’s nothing really new, except that it is almost close to 100% that it will be presented at the MW2008 with already finished prototypes, but just wanted to share it with you anyway.

Despite of that I’m not sure yet whether to add up some more shares or to wait for a couple of days until the sell-off from Friday is really over.

[quote author=“connecta”]“iBook Nano”

Welcome, connecta.

The iBook name was extinguished 18 months ago. It’s MacBooks for the foreseeable future. I’m certain that we will see a smaller a notebook with a flash drive. In the same way that Apple ditched floppy drives and went to USB, I expect that this is the year that notebooks start to go flash-based.

[quote author=“macglenn”][quote author=“xumbra”]But this will also encourage the now fully nuke-armed Wilde Bears into a daily-routine triple-speed AAPL nonstop full shorting mass-mastubation and mass terror.

This will mean wilde rollercoaster outbreaks and movements @ the speed of light -> frequently pulverising most peaceful dayTraders tools and rules, like toothpicks in the mouth of a Moby Dick. High voltage danger -> nukes -> no rules

Layman’s terms indeed, 

Yea indeed, today I could as well lay myself on the bed screaming !! This present riot is simply nuts. Man! -  this is the first real trading day of the year - I could build giant wooden windmills with these shark-saw-tooths. Simply nukes! Grrrrrrr