The Mac Observer

 
   
4 of 4
4
Sticking with AAPL in 2008: investing beyond Macworld
Posted: 08 January 2008 05:10 PM [ Ignore ] [ # 46 ]
stars_5
Total Posts:  2468
Joined  2006-04-17
[quote author=“RCooper”]mtdoc , I don’t play the option market so your experience can come in handy here , but it seems to me if there was a large number of call options for the month over puts options then whoever held large profits in these calls would be targets for hedge funds to short the stock , making the holder of the , in the money calls , dump their position in order to lock in and secure as much profit as possible before the shorts ran the stock down to much . Then with the herd all trying to unload their , in the money calls , it would drive the stock down that much farther and quicker . Please fill free to clear me up on this if thats not the way a stock can be manipulated by hedge funds using the stocks option position .In fact ,  I wish some of forum members experienced in shorts , selling and buying options , and any other form of investing would start a thread , titled ” stock manipulation 1101 ” and explain how these forms of stock investing can be used to whipsaw a stock and manipulate the stock price ?

RCooper-

Just getting caught up on AFB after working too much and at the same time trying to trade to protect my portfolio at the same time - not very successfully BTW roll eyes

If you read my current post in the options thread you’ll see that I’m no fan of conspiracy and manipulation theories when it comes to AAPL following the broad market down.

My view is that large numbers of calls being traded can be either bullish or bearish - for lots of reasons - calls can be bought or sold to establish both bullish and bearish positions.

Were it does come in to play is when there is a large open interest of calls above the market price. This becomes a hurldle to get over as expiry approaches because market makers need to hedge the closing of those positions by selling stock so they can stay neutral and not be subject to big losses if the price moves up or down unexpectadly.

The closer to expiry you get - the closer 1 call gets to equalling 100 shares of AAPL ( you need a undertanding of option Greeks for me to explain this better - but take my word for it)

So if I’m an option market maker and am forced to buy a bunch of calls the day before expiry (due to selling by owners of those calls who want to book profits and minimize their risk) then I can only stay neutral by selling an equivalent amount of stock- thus putting downward pressure on the stock.

Variations of this fundamental option dynamic - that occurs for both calls and puts - is responsible for stocks tendency to get pinned to high open interest strike prices and for those strikes to act as a barrier to be overcome - to rise past for a high call open interest strike or fall below for a high put open interest strike.

IMO the only conclusion you can make about a high number of calls being traded 2 weeks before expiry is that the underlying stock is very actively traded - with a very active options market and a lot of volatilty - a description that fits AAPL perfectly.

smile

One point to add - I’m fairly certain that most option open interest is held by big funds and not by retail traders - that might help clarify things.

 Signature 

Anger and intolerance are the twin enemies of correct understanding.
- Mahatma Gandhi

Profile
 
 
Posted: 08 January 2008 10:00 PM [ Ignore ] [ # 47 ]
stars_2
Total Posts:  209
Joined  2007-11-28

mtdoc ,  Thanks for the explanation . Even though I am 55 years old there is a lot of investment areas that I know very little about so your comments are always welcome .

 Signature 

keep your friends close but your enemies closer

Profile
 
 
   
4 of 4
4
 

Apple Stock Quote (AAPL)

Loading...

Hot Topics

TMO Express

Join the TMO Express Daily Newsletter to get the latest Mac headlines in your e-mail every weekday. Find out more!

Top Deals From DealBrothers.com

Recent Features

Support The Mac Observer

We noticed you may be running AdBlock on your computer. It takes real money to run this site and to deliver the news, tips, and opinions you love to read.

If you wish to block the ads that pay for the creation of our content, we ask that you instead support TMO Directly, either with a $5 monthly recurring contribution, or a one-time donation of any amount of your choice. Thanks!

Subscribe with Paypal Donate with Paypal