Please remember historical data relative to a comparison of sequential gains from FQ4 to FQ1 may no longer be an accurate guide for many reasons including but not limited to:

Apple’s Mac unit shipments were skewed during the Intel transition as various Mac lines completed the transition at different times. FQ 4 ‘07 (the most recent September-ending quarter) was a blow-out quarter for back-to school sales. I’m not expecting the same historical percentage lift from FQ4 to FQ1 this period.

The iPod line has undergone a serious revision. While we may not see the same percentage lift in iPod sales, ASPs in the December quarter should be higher.

In this topic I provided an historical look at Mac unit shipments for the past two years with an estimate of the outcome this fiscal year should Apple maintain a 35% YOY gain in shipments. 

With a 35% gain in YOY Mac unit shipments, sequential Mac sales in the December quarter would be flat. This is essentially Apple’s guidance for the quarter. While I think we will see an uptick sequentially in Mac unit sales, we need to be careful when using historical data for forward assumptions.

Apple’s quarterly sales mix has shifted significantly over the past couple of years.

DawnTreader, congratulations, you are famous. You have been quoted in this Fortune article:

http://tinyurl.com/2b4hyg

“Apple Q1 earnings: How big the bounce?”

excerpt:

“Gross margins. As the AFB moderator who calls himself DawnTreader puts it: “Volume is nice. But high-margin volume is better.” He’s watching how much of each sales dollar flowed to cover operating costs and to the bottom line after manufacturing costs.”

The article discusses what to look for in the earnings report and contains a link for listening to the webcast live.

[quote author=“aapljack”]DawnTreader, congratulations, you are famous. You have been quoted in this Fortune article:

http://tinyurl.com/2b4hyg

“Apple Q1 earnings: How big the bounce?”

Thank you.

The AFB is a collaborative effort and everyone’s posts and points of view are important. Working together, the AFB is gaining more and more respect and recognition. I’m happy to see excerpts from here posted in new and well-respected places. The AFB provides an important service to the AAPL-investing community. Each of you contribute to the AFB’s success.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“aapljack”]DawnTreader, congratulations, you are famous. You have been quoted in this Fortune article:

http://tinyurl.com/2b4hyg

“Apple Q1 earnings: How big the bounce?”

Thank you.

The AFB is a collaborative effort and everyone’s posts and points of view are important. Working together, the AFB is gaining more and more respect and recognition. I’m happy to see excerpts from here posted in new and well-respected places. The AFB provides an important service to the AAPL-investing community. Each of you contribute to the AFB’s success.

As a newcomer to AFB I can just say thank YOU, DawnTreader, Tommo, and all the others from whom I am learning. AFB is wonderful resource. I am constantly amazed and delighted not only at the expertise and insight but at the good writing and humour (sorely needed these days!)

Thank you all for your comments. Let’s get ready for our own Super Tuesday with Apple’s quarterly results and the conference call with analysts.