[quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“appleforever”]Does anyone have a guess how Apple might profit from the SDK other then the obvious additional iPhone and iPod Touch sales?

Will Apple continue to operate iTunes at break even or could this be an additional source of revenue? I would think software companies would pay handsomely for the access to 20-30 million potential YOY users.

To me it seems like the inverse of the music/movie deals.

I can almost guarantee iTunes is profitable and growing more profitable by the day. I’m not worried about making money off of the SDK, I’m interested in monthly contract service revenue from iPhone users.

I agree with you that Apple’s accounting of the iTunes store vs. reality… is they are making more $ than we might suspect, but don’t you think the SDK could become another source of revenue?

Even a small cut per app could be huge!!

I’m starting to feel that the event will be the roadmap to the final SDK release later in the year. Tim Cook’s “exciting” things will be revealed, most of which are part of the roadmap for now..and betas will be given to certain developers..but not the entire thing. My $0.02.

[quote author=“appleforever”]Does anyone have a guess how Apple might profit from the SDK other then the obvious additional iPhone and iPod Touch sales?

Will Apple continue to operate iTunes at break even or could this be an additional source of revenue? I would think software companies would pay handsomely for the access to 20-30 million potential YOY users.

To me it seems like the inverse of the music/movie deals.

I view the development cost of the SDK like an investment in infrastructure. Apple will profit from it, but primarily indirectly as it will generate more interest in iPhone and will broaden its reach into the marketplace.

The profit from selling apps on iTunes is secondary. I see this delivery model more as Apple’s way of controlling the user experience, and also of monitoring the iPhone application space. Profits from iTunes commerce will follow along.

Just my $.02

The developers who distribute iPhone/Pod software are not the same type group that sells cases and skins licensed through Apple. A small segment of iPhone buyers would purchase with the intention of making a fashion statement with a tutquoise case.

The developers providing apps are driving device sales. And we know the numbers AAPL makes off each sale.
I don’t see AAPL doing more than covering costs in the software distribution via iTunes. There are bigger fish to fry.

Look at the newer bigger R & D staff they get. These people need to be stroked, not gouged.

” More power Mr. Scott”

” Aye Aye Captain…”

[quote author=“superbaka”]I’m starting to feel that the event will be the roadmap to the final SDK release later in the year. Tim Cook’s “exciting” things will be revealed, most of which are part of the roadmap for now..and betas will be given to certain developers..but not the entire thing. My $0.02.

Yep that’s how I feel this will play out.. the big news will be software partners signing up, big names like IBM, SAP, Salesforce, Microsoft, etc.. some with demos etc. A beta of the SDK will be released to allow smaller developers to play, but it will run in emulation mode on the Mac rather than the iPhone.

The main SDK will be released concurrent with a new iPhone or iPhone OS 2.0 instead of 1.1.6 or whatever, and at that point the entire development community, rather than just the “chosen few” keynote partners will be able to write and sell applications for the iPhone.

I don’t believe Apple will lock small developers out of the SDK. They are already developing like crazy with an alternative tool chain. Apples relationship with the individual (including developers) is the core of its business. What I think may happen is that there are two environments on the phone. A secure phone (default config) only accepts signed, approved apps delivered via itunes. But some form of jailbreak (“open” iPhone) is explicitly provided for anyone who wants to do development, or live dangerously installing uncertified apps. A slightly more sophisticated version would have developers needing to register a public key with which their apps are encrypted. iTunes would validate the key before allowing install on an “open” phone. Thus there would be no guarantee an app was safe, but it would be traceable to a registered developer. Like HDCP, such a key could be revoked.

The only restriction for this model is that you must be on the internet when installing apps, so that the key can be authenticated.

Apple has talked about using a model similar to what Nokia uses.  If the Iphone SDK uses a similar model, then there will be 4 levels of applications.  Unrestricted, User Grantable/self certificate, Developer certificate, and Licensee or platform approved.  Each level opens up additional APIs to the developer.

I think for the last two levels Apple will have to do some independent testing so they will probably charge for the service. 

Pat

[quote author=“pats”]Apple has talked about using a model similar to what Nokia uses.  If the Iphone SDK uses a similar model, then there will be 4 levels of applications.  Unrestricted, User Grantable/self certificate, Developer certificate, and Licensee or platform approved.  Each level opens up additional APIs to the developer.

I think for the last two levels Apple will have to do some independent testing so they will probably charge for the service. 

Pat

Thanks for that insight and your observations.. interesting.

Fortune comments on the iPhone SDK rumour-mongering

One thing is for certain. The SDK will lead to more sales of the higher capacity models, which will lead to even higher capacity models (when affordable chips become available). As the iPhone approaches more and more the “computer” end of its trajectory, the phone capability will become almost secondary. Then a big market opens for a full scale touch tablet—somewhere between the IPhone and the Air.

It’s also possible that a gGoogle web app approach can be possible. No need to have apps on the phone itself if they can be accessed via the always available network. Then the extra capacity can be used for more music and movies.

Nice Tommo but the comments are really derogatory… someone should say something nice on his site….Christ he is refreshing compared to most bloggers on Apple

Nice Tommo but the comments are really derogatory… someone should say something nice on his site….Christ he is refreshing compared to most bloggers on Apple

I think he deserves some support.. AFB members in agreement should start leaving positive comments in his comments section as of now. He’s a decent writer with a bit of integrity and is a damn lot better than most of the paid shills out there working at some of his competitors.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]
I think he deserves some support.. AFB members in agreement should start leaving positive comments in his comments section as of now. He’s a decent writer with a bit of integrity and is a damn lot better than most of the paid shills out there working at some of his competitors.

he’s currently getting shot down by comments, yes… But we might be doing him a disservice if we start posting all-positive statements just for the sake of defending him.

[quote author=“MaCroissant”][quote author=“Tommo_UK”]
I think he deserves some support.. AFB members in agreement should start leaving positive comments in his comments section as of now. He’s a decent writer with a bit of integrity and is a damn lot better than most of the paid shills out there working at some of his competitors.

he’s currently getting shot down by comments, yes… But we might be doing him a disservice if we start posting all-positive statements just for the sake of defending him.

I don’t mean outright defending of the comments left, just intelligent posts on his articles and polite rebuttals of some of the more obnoxious and inaccurate posts left on his blog.

iLounge has this “news” today:

Phone/iPod SDK: Apple to approve, distribute apps, limit add-ons
Feb. 29, 2008 | Category: iPhone Software

According to several sources familiar with Apple’s iPhone and iPod touch software development kit (SDK) plans, the company will use a March 6 event in Cupertino, California to formally announce a number of potentially controversial limitations on application development and publishing. Our sources spoke on the condition that their comments were not for attribution, independently confirming the following details, and offering differing opinions of their importance. We include both the details and opinions below for your reference.

iTunes Store as hub. Least controversially, Apple plans to require that all mobile applications be distributed through its iTunes Store, making the Store a necessary hub for those interested in browsing or purchasing iPhone and iPod touch software. While one source suggested that a company’s well-trafficked website or product packaging would be considerably more practical places to distribute certain types of software, another source lauded the Store as a logical place for Apple users to locate and purchase applications.

Apple as application picker. The most controversial aspect of Apple’s SDK plan is its intention to formally approve or deny all SDK-based software releases for its devices. Our sources confirm that Apple will act as a gatekeeper for applications, deciding which are and are not worthy of release, and publishing only approved applications to the iTunes Store; a process that will less resemble the iTunes Store’s massive directory of podcasts than its sale of a limited variety of iPod Games. While one source saw this as a positive for major developers, suggesting that Apple will be choked by application submissions and forced to give priority to releases from larger companies, another source disagreed, stating that Apple’s current approval processes for third-party products have resulted in lengthy, needless delays. It is unclear whether Apple will need to approve subsequent bug fixes and feature additions to accepted applications, another issue that could clog the approval system and postpone important improvements.

No accessory connectivity. Under current plans, SDK developers will be prevented from interfacing directly with Dock Connector-based accessories connected to the iPhone or iPod touch—a decision that we are told could cripple development of new accessories such as physical keyboards, traditional add-ons, and more ambitious, creative accessories such as Delphi’s iPhone car control prototype. One source described this limit as a guarantee that SDK-developed applications would be nearly as limited as current web-based ones, while consuming more of the device’s storage capacity. Yet integrated iPhone or iPod touch features such as the phone, Wi-Fi, and camera will be developer-accessible, certainly permitting development of programs that weren’t possible before. It is presently unclear whether Bluetooth 2.0, which is included in the iPhone but crippled to permit only monaural phone call streaming, will be opened to permit stereo audio streaming and data functionality as well.

Sources told iLounge that the collective impact of Apple’s decisions will be to control and stifle third-party development at a critical juncture in iPhone and iPod history, limiting what could be an open, thriving Mac-like collection of applications and accessories to a smaller, more stagnant iPod-like controlled environment. Consequently, a source suggests, developers who “jailbrake” iPhones and iPods to develop applications will be at an advantage relative to those who use Apple’s official tools. Even after extensive discussions on the subject, however, iLounge remains open-minded to the idea that Apple’s plans will result in net positives for the iPod and iPhone community, and optimistic that the company will loosen its planned restrictions to accommodate the Apple community’s demonstrated, impressive creativity.

According to our sources, Apple will use the March 6 event to tout the benefits of the SDK to selected media, analysts, and developers, releasing an incomplete, “beta” version of the kit that was originally promised for February. The actual kit will now ship in June, coinciding with Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference event in San Francisco. Additional announcements regarding iPhone compatibility with popular enterprise software, including Microsoft Exchange and Lotus Notes, will also take place, in an effort to convince corporate users to adopt the iPhone despite reservations over its on-screen keyboard and e-mail functionality.