From Repubblica.it (Italian)

1: the new iPhones will 9.2mm thick (thinner than the current version).
2: 8GB and 16GB models.
3: Two colors: red and white.
4: June or November introduction dates.
5: iPhone will be locked to original operator (TIM or Vodaphone) for 9 months. After 9 months, an unblocking fee can be paid to free the iPhone, after 18 months, no unblocking fee.
6: Flat data and voice rates.

Points 1-4 are probably standard rumor mill, points 5 & 6 are more reliable.

Tullio, PlayUltimate, please trim the annoyingly long URLs: they are making me (and others) scroll horizontally. See the BBCode help on how to do it properly.

Sorry, didn’t even notice the URL in the quote. It’s been deleted. 

Regarding phone buyers in India:

Don’t underestimate emerging economies by thinking such consumers are unable to afford an iPhone. The best value proposition may very well be to buy a smartphone instead of a home computer. I think it’s appropriate to wonder if the iPhone will empower many in emerging markets via mobile email, web, media, and a powerful smartphone complete with third-party apps in support of mobile computing tasks. In other words, can the iPhone make a small step towards helping to level the playing field between developed and emerging nations? Could the iPhone be a better deal and better overall value compared to a home computer coupled with a throw-away phone? Remains to be seen, but I’m optimistic.

Regarding the importance of India:

Cell phone subscribers in India are expected to triple during the next few years, making it one of the world’s fastest growing markets.

Last year, the number of subscribers nearly doubled to 149.5 million, up from 85 million in 2005, according to iSuppli Corp. About 5.5 million Indians are signing up each month, which should drive subscriber numbers to 484 million by 2011.

The Vodaphone announcement is big news because (a) it includes India, and (b) it formally confirms the multiple-carrier strategy in Italy (and elsewhere) moving forward. Time to think less about iPhone revenue sharing and more about iPhone global market penetration.

OS X is going to be in a whole lot of homes, hands, and pockets around the world within the next few years. The implications of this are important for developers and for Apple brand awareness globally. Here’s hoping the iPhone halo effect remains in full force.

[quote author=“lumi”]
OS X is going to be in a whole lot of homes, hands, and pockets around the world within the next few years. The implications of this are important for developers and for Apple brand awareness globally. Here’s hoping the iPhone halo effect remains in full force.

Handled well, five years from now more OS X-based products will be in the hands and homes of consumers than Windows-based products. Still, there’s much work to be done. IMHO the overwhelming interest among developers in the iPhone will lead to thousands of new Mac- OS X-based solutions across all of Apple’s product platforms. That kind of success will bring its own challenges.

Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster calculates that the Vodaphone deal nearly doubles the size of the iPhone’s available market, from 153 million potential subscribers today to 293 million once the 10 new countries are on board.

[quote author=“lumi”]Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster calculates that the Vodaphone deal nearly doubles the size of the iPhone’s available market, from 153 million potential subscribers today to 293 million once the 10 new countries are on board.

Thanks lumi. nice pickup. Now we wait for the China shoe to drop

Leaked AT&T memo points to 3G iPhone release in late June?

A friendly neighborhood AT&T employee forwarded us a purported memo for AT&T retail store employees that could provide a rather telling clue about the next-gen iPhone’s release date this summer if it proves true. A similar memo went out last year around this time requesting that employees not take any vacations between June 15 and July 15, and this year those dates are June 15 and July 12—which seems suspiciously early, but that’s what the man says. The memo cites “an exciting Summer Promotional Launch,” which we’re guessing doesn’t refer to some new Motorola flip phone. Also telling is the fact that employees might be able to take some vacations later within that window when things die down a bit, which seems to imply that Apple could be aiming for a launch date right around the iPhone’s one year anniversary of June 29th. How romantic.

Based on the AT&T memo willrob linked above, one could speculate that:

(A) Fri, June 27 could be the launch date (2 days shy of 1 yr anniversary)
(B) The 2.0 version could be announced before this date to build momentum/buzz
(C) The June 9 keynote at WWDC is a prime candidate for a 2.0 announcement
or
(D) Instead of WWDC, could a separate, not-yet-announced special event also be a candidate for the announcement of 2.0 and the June 27 launch?

Only seven weeks until June 27
Only five weeks until June 9
Only _?_ weeks until any potential special event/announcement?

We’re likely to see new all-time highs before May is over.

[quote author=“lumi”]Based on the AT&T memo willrob linked above, one could speculate that:

(A) Fri, June 27 could be the launch date (2 days shy of 1 yr anniversary)
(B) The 2.0 version could be announced before this date to build momentum/buzz
(C) The June 9 keynote at WWDC is a prime candidate for a 2.0 announcement
or
(D) Instead of WWDC, could a separate, not-yet-announced special event also be a candidate for the announcement of 2.0 and the June 27 launch?

Only seven weeks until June 27
Only five weeks until June 9
Only _?_ weeks until any potential special event/announcement?

I’m gong for the 20th with SJ announcing on the 9th with Iphone 2.0 and one more thing, developers can buy a beta 3G iphone this week to test your software the App store opens on the 20th.  The 27th will work, but it’s my anniversary so no way will my wife let me stand in line all night

Pat
We’re likely to see new all-time highs before May is over.

[quote author=“lumi”]Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster calculates that the Vodaphone deal nearly doubles the size of the iPhone’s available market, from 153 million potential subscribers today to 293 million once the 10 new countries are on board.

Also interesting to me is this Munster quote by way of Appleinsider:

“This announcement is both sooner and more expansive that we were expecting,” he explains. “With the announcement of these 10 additional markets, the iPhone’s international rollout is about 6 months ahead of our original expectations.”

Find it here , about halfway down the article.

If Gene Munster’s calculations were off by half a year on iPhone 2.0’s rollout I wonder about the impact it will have on his sales and price estimate.

(As I wrote that last line, my stereo had John Fogerty singing the line from Proud Mary ... “big wheels keep on turning”.

hehehehe

What to make of the Synchronoss (SNCR) statement May 6 regarding actual iPhone activations falling below earlier estimates?

From Eric Savitz’ post on SeekingAlpha: CEO Stephen Waldis says the company has “materially lowered” its growth expectations for 2008 “due in part to reduced revenues associated with the iPhone, which masks the underlying growth and momentum of the rest of our business.” The company provides AT&T (T) with transaction management services, including the registration of new Apple (AAPL) iPhone users.

Waldis stated “the gap between the number of iPhones expected to be sold and the actual number that we are activating continues to be significant, and we expect this trend to continue. As a reminder, Synchronoss is not paid on the number of iPhones that are sold, but rather the number that we activate. And as a result, we are materially adjusting our expectations as it relates to revenue related to the iPhone during 2008. To put these factors into perspective, we currently expect our related transaction revenue from the iPhone to decline by approximately $30 million in 2008 compared to 2007.”

I am unable to process the last sentence of the above paragraph. Either (i) the number of activations will be significantly reduced in 2008 compared to 2007, or (ii) the fee per activation will be significantly reduced.

I suppose a third choice is possible, combining (i) and (ii). In any event, I don’t understand how SNCR will realize declining revenues from iPhone activations in 2008 in light of the anticipated 3G release. So this suggests a fourth choice, that T is not going to use SNCR for activations of the next-gen iPhone.

One more puzzle piece. I will try to find some answers tomorrow, but I thought this information warranted a post as is.

[quote author=“chartguy69”]What to make of the Synchronoss (SNCR) statement May 6 regarding actual iPhone activations falling below earlier estimates?

My theory about this is in the news thread…

The fifth beta version of the iPhone SDK is now available.

I can’t help but think that some of these stories are going to provide some FUD from our friends in the news that either A) get it wrong B) purposely get it wrong C) just can’t get their tiny little heads around these rapidly changing business models. Hell, most of them couldn’t even get a handle on the deferred rev. model until recently. So, some buying opportunities or not? The rush to get in on iPhone 2.0 might be huge and trample any FUD attempts.

Also, on the Synchronoss news. To me, one of the strengths of the iPhone was the ability to bypass the normal activation nightmare normally associated with cells. I hope it means that ATT is going with someone else. Very strange bit of news…

It may simply be that the unexpected level of unlocking in the past quarter meant that SNCR cannot reliably model future iPhone revenues, and therefore must not include them in forward guidance.

It is also said that the per iPhone fee has dropped to match other phones (Apple were paying a premium, not sure why).