DH still hasn’t gotten a 16GB, and is pretty bummed about it.  He has been to the AT&T store the past three mornings and so far, no cigar.    Today, they said they were out of iPhones and didn’t know when they would get more.  He said they weren’t very helpful about when that might be.  He’s not a very happy camper, just now.

Are you too far from an Apple store in Florida?

d

Husbands are like that. 

It’s part of the package and it’s been that way since the dawn of humankind. It’ll pass as soon as he has one. Within a month he’ll forget his brooding. 

Are you too far from an Apple store in Florida?

d

Unfortunately, the closest Apple store is about 1 1/2 hrs away.  He’d probably be willing to drive there to get one, but I’m out of town in our car that’s highway drivable.  I told him I might be able to stop at the Apple Store in Houston, on my way back to Florida.  He said that might be an option.

Plenty for sale on eBay….

Going price is around $875 bucks for a 16G - not ASKING, but GETTING.

I wonder how on earth some of these guys got five or six of them to sell?

Anyway, if eBay is any indication, people will pay $200 BUCKS NOT TO WAIT IN LINE.

Pay attention here Apple, for the 4G offer a concierge service, for $300 extra, an “Apple Genius Jr” will come to your house by appointment, set it up for you, and give you a 1/2 hour operating lesson.

Best Buy has their “GEEK SQUAD” we need our “MACGOONER’s”

Whatchallthingaboutit?

[quote author=“roontoon”][quote author=“stkstalker”][quote author=“Play Ultimate”][quote author=“omacvi”]any thing over 600k this weekend would be great

The issue is that there were no online sales

I think each Apple store sold at least 500 per day

And each Att store sold 75 per day

You do the math

We still are in good shape

ATT = 75 * 3 * 2200 =  495,000
Apple= 500 *3 * 200 = 300,000
Total = 795,000 US only. 

Seems high but . . .

BTW, last year’s numbers got so out of hand ridiculous that . . .

Congrats dude and sponge - you were referenced in PED’d Fortune article.

Fortune’s been Sponged. 

d

It feels good to be recognized by a premier magazine.  Especially as an anonymous mac addict on an obscure website.

checked with a ATT store in Temecula CA and they sold 140 on Friday, 80 yesterday and they don’t know when they will get more.

My buddy wanted to get one but the line in Century City was too long for him.  He said there were about 50 people in line yesterday.

This product is hot and hard to get a hold of. 

It feels good to own lots of aapl.

Looks like the number of Apple’s stores short of stock is pretty high this evening, Hard to give an exact number without counting all the dots (someone with a 7 year old give them a buck to count them ). Maybe 70% or so? Calif. is very well stocked but the rest of the US is in a lot shorter supply.

[quote author=“omacvi”]any thing over 600k this weekend would be great

The issue is that there were no online sales

I think each Apple store sold at least 500 per day

And each Att store sold 75 per day

You do the math

We still are in good shape

I think that is right.  12 hour day times 10 Apple staff checking times 4 phones per hour (15 minutes for each sale) is 480 phones at one store.

I’ll save you the dollar. Here is what i counted for stores with phones:
8 GB: 74/188 (39%)
16 W:  84 (45%)
16 B:  52 (28%)
95 stores (51%)  had at least 1 model in stock

It was a quick 10 min count, I am sure i’m off by a store or two somewhere, but at least you get a general idea and i was curious.

Looking at tonight’s availability charts, there’s a lot of inventory to fill.

I’m surprised shipments have not kept up with demand by late Monday.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]Looking at tonight’s availability charts, there’s a lot of inventory to fill.

I’m surprised shipments have not kept up with demand by late Monday.

DT, my thinking is that Apple had a run of 2 mil and held back some to ship to hot areas. Ga has plenty available last time I looked. After this week I would think that each store would get at most 2 deliveries per week. By the end of next week production should be streamlined to match demand. JMO of course. This qtr’s numbers will be nice because of the initial channel fill, ohh nice padding.

[quote author=“mbeauch”][quote author=“DawnTreader”]Looking at tonight’s availability charts, there’s a lot of inventory to fill.

I’m surprised shipments have not kept up with demand by late Monday.

DT, my thinking is that Apple had a run of 2 mil and held back some to ship to hot areas. Ga has plenty available last time I looked. After this week I would think that each store would get at most 2 deliveries per week. By the end of next week production should be streamlined to match demand. JMO of course. This qtr’s numbers will be nice because of the initial channel fill, ohh nice padding.

Considering the global roll outs to come, it may be awhile before the channel is filled with a couple/few weeks of inventory.

[quote author=“mbeauch”][quote author=“DawnTreader”]Looking at tonight’s availability charts, there’s a lot of inventory to fill.

I’m surprised shipments have not kept up with demand by late Monday.

DT, my thinking is that Apple had a run of 2 mil and held back some to ship to hot areas. Ga has plenty available last time I looked. After this week I would think that each store would get at most 2 deliveries per week. By the end of next week production should be streamlined to match demand. JMO of course. This qtr’s numbers will be nice because of the initial channel fill, ohh nice padding.

I think there were 1.25 million available on Friday. The 1 million figure includes all 3g iphones shipped to carriers and SOLD in Apple stores by Sunday night. The .25 million includes all 3g iphones still in inventory at Apple stores Sunday night. By Monday night, many Apple stores were out of stock and were not going to be restocked for today. Therefore, there are no 3g iphones left to ship to carriers or Apple stores. I agree with P.E.D.

One explanation for the discrepancy is that Apple counts its own sales at the register but sales to partners when they leave the shipping dock. In other words, some of those 1 million iPhones may still be in transit.

The questions are:
How many 3g iphones can Hon Hai produce in a day?
In my life, I used to be plant manager at a number of different food plants. If you wanted 10,000 frozen pizzas or 40,000 bottles of BBQ sauce, not a problem. Give me two days to change production schedules, get raw material inventory. You want 50,000 frozen pizzas 0r 250,000 bottles of BBW sauce?
Hold on, that is going to take a while.
The same thing with Hon Hai.
Steve said Apple sold 1 million 3g iphones in 3 days.
The first iphone took 74 days to sell 1 million.
Apple sold 6 million iphones up until March of this year.

Let us say Hon Hai can produce 30,000 3g iphones a day. That would be 3 shifts of 10,000 per shift. Hon Hai does not make a huge profit assembling an electronic product. They make small profits on huge volumes.
Hire more people. Build more production lines. This takes time and MONEY. A big production line can easily cost $5 million. Hon Hai may have built a second iphone/ipod touch line. I think Hon Hai is capable of 250,000 3g iphones per week. It will take at least a month to make an additional million 3g iphones.

Are all 3g iphone parts readily available? This may be the biggest constraint. IFX reported some difficulties with production for a major customer at their last earnings call. I think that customer was Apple. IFX’s other major customer for this chip I believe is RIMM.

In conclusion, I believe production constraints will prevent Apple from selling more than 1 million per month of the 3g iphone.

[quote author=“artman1033”]In conclusion, I believe production constraints will prevent Apple from selling more than 1 million per month of the 3g iphone.

Where does the production limit of 1M/month come from? I had been assuming best estimate of planned capacity was 3M/month. At 21 countries it looks like 2M/month will be needed. When it’s over 70, 3M/month looks plausible.

Why would Apple plan a production level that won’t meet the 10M in CY 2008 that’s been more or less stated as fact?

[quote author=“sleepygeek”][quote author=“artman1033”]In conclusion, I believe production constraints will prevent Apple from selling more than 1 million per month of the 3g iphone.

Where does the production limit of 1M/month come from? I had been assuming best estimate of planned capacity was 3M/month. At 21 countries it looks like 2M/month will be needed. When it’s over 70, 3M/month looks plausible.

Why would Apple plan a production level that won’t meet the 10M in CY 2008 that’s been more or less stated as fact?

SG, my thoughts exactly. With the above scenario you could not even have a new launch. The above stated cost of 5 mil for a new line is a drop in the bucket. I don’t know how much automation is involved in the iphone production, I also don’t have any idea about the quality controls. The one thing that does make sense is that the production line would be set up for at least 3-4 mil/month. If there were not any phones held back and Apple went into the launch with no backup then that is another problem. This is where Deagol and his serial number tracking will come in.