edit: posted in wrong thread.

A second factor is that iPhones are going to 21 countries, and more than 21 carriers, with the software install, and the box contents (instructions, power adapter) different for each. In addition there is the possibility that a last minute software update is needed. It makes sense to hold back part of the launch stock until it can be allocated to the most appropriate countries. This factor was entirely absent from last year’s launch in the US only.

In order to manage this, Apple may be still holding large stocks of iPhones which await configuration, serial numbering, packing and shipping. This is likely to impose a one week delay on product arriving. If the launch stock had lasted an extra 3-4 days, there may not have been any interruption of supply.

[quote author=“sleepygeek”]A second factor is that iPhones are going to 21 countries, and more than 21 carriers, with the software install, and the box contents (instructions, power adapter) different for each. In addition there is the possibility that a last minute software update is needed. It makes sense to hold back part of the launch stock until it can be allocated to the most appropriate countries. This factor was entirely absent from last year’s launch in the US only.

In order to manage this, Apple may be still holding large stocks of iPhones which await configuration, serial numbering, packing and shipping. This is likely to impose a one week delay on product arriving. If the launch stock had lasted an extra 3-4 days, there may not have been any interruption of supply.

I’m sure there’s amply inventory or supply of product. Delivering the correct product to the correct places and to do so in a timely manner is the challenge. I still expect 5 million units to be sold by August 11, 2008.

[quote author=“DawnTreader”]I’m sure there’s amply inventory or supply of product. Delivering the correct product to the correct places and to do so in a timely manner is the challenge. I still expect 5 million units to be sold by August 11, 2008.

Mr. Munster, in a note to investors obtained by iPO, forecasted that Apple would sell 4.1 million iPhone 3Gs by the end of September. The demand for the new Apple smartphone must be tempered by constrained supplies, he said.

[quote author=“artman1033”][quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“sleepygeek”]
In order to manage this, Apple may be still holding large stocks of iPhones which await configuration, serial numbering, packing and shipping. This is likely to impose a one week delay on product arriving. If the launch stock had lasted an extra 3-4 days, there may not have been any interruption of supply.

I’m sure there’s amply inventory or supply of product. Delivering the correct product to the correct places and to do so in a timely manner is the challenge. I still expect 5 million units to be sold by August 11, 2008.

I disagree. I just got back from an Apple store and an AT&T store I stopped by on Sunday. At AT&T I was told the wait for credit approved and charged customers was now 8-10 days up from 3-8 days on Sunday. This particular AT&T store has received 80 3g iphones on Friday. Sold out in the first hour. Not every one in line got one. This particular store has not received any more product. At the Apple store, two apple pros agreed with me that there were no more 3g iphones in the US (except for the stock in some Apple stores). They agreed with me that the final packaging occurs in China where you pay the employees $1.00/ day as compared to the US, where it might cost $20.00/hour.

Artman I will then have to tell you your data is not all correct my father just got back from an ATT store in South Georgia where he just signed up for his new black 16gb iphone (which I was supposed to be buying for him, but have been unable to do so due to some car problems I have been having).

They told him they just received a new shipment of phones in their store this afternoon but that he would be able to pick his phone up in 5 days.

Obviously it is different everywhere, and I doubt any specific employees in a retail Apple store know the full availability of iPhones. They do not need to know that info they just need to know what their store will be receiving.

http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2008/07/15/iphones-sold-out-in-21-states-long-lines-continue-elsewhere

The comments tend to support the theory that there is a very limited supply currently in the U.S.  I’d be surprised if we didn’t hit 2 million by next week - especially with a France rollout and (hopefully) some shipments over the next few days.

I also visited an AT&T store today and the sales person told me they sold out friday, had received some today and were looking for more on Friday.

Visited a local AT&T store today- they said they were supposed to receive a shipment today around noon and didn’t get any product.

I think we have a very tight supply.

Almost forgot, the AT&T kiosk in our big mall had an iphone display. I can say I do like the feel of my metal case better. I do like the speed also, I think they must do something in those stores to speed them up because the one I tested was lighting fast.

[quote author=“artman1033”][quote author=“DawnTreader”][quote author=“sleepygeek”]
In order to manage this, Apple may be still holding large stocks of iPhones which await configuration, serial numbering, packing and shipping. This is likely to impose a one week delay on product arriving. If the launch stock had lasted an extra 3-4 days, there may not have been any interruption of supply.

I’m sure there’s amply inventory or supply of product. Delivering the correct product to the correct places and to do so in a timely manner is the challenge. I still expect 5 million units to be sold by August 11, 2008.

I disagree. I just got back from an Apple store and an AT&T store I stopped by on Sunday. At AT&T I was told the wait for credit approved and charged customers was now 8-10 days up from 3-8 days on Sunday. This particular AT&T store has received 80 3g iphones on Friday. Sold out in the first hour. Not every one in line got one. This particular store has not received any more product. At the Apple store, two apple pros agreed with me that there were no more 3g iphones in the US (except for the stock in some Apple stores). They agreed with me that the final packaging occurs in China where you pay the employees $1.00/ day as compared to the US, where it might cost $20.00/hour.

I know… a relative of a co-worker who once dated the sister of an Apple store employee told his 3rd cousin twice removed there’s a shortage of iPhone in the US and it’s because Chinese laborers are paid $1.00 per day. Right. It’s all a conspiracy by the Chinese to disrupt the economy ahead of the Olympics. 

There’s product in the US. There’s product in China and stores will be restocked as quickly as possible.

By the way, it doesn’t matter if the goods are in China, Alaska, LA or NY. It doesn’t matter if there isn’t a single unsold iPhone anywhere in the US at this minute in time. The phones can be delivered to retail locations as quickly as tomorrow morning from wherever they might be now.

Went to a downtown nyc att store on Friday morning. There must have been approximately 150 people on line in front of me, so I didnt bother waiting.

Came back later and paid for a 16gb model that is supposed to be shipped to me within 7 days, at least thats what was told to me.

Here is Tuesday night and still waiting. oh well….

Apparently, now the wait time for the iphone is 8 - 10 days.

Things are getting out of hand:

http://cgi.ebay.com/WHITE-Apple-iPhone-3G-AT-T-16-GB-BRAND-NEW-in-HAND_W0QQitemZ160261632388QQihZ006QQcategoryZ3312QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

No more iPhones of any kind here at the Victoria Gardens Store.

I know this mornings they showed all the models were available.

It appears those who did not get them in the last 5 days may now have to wait.   even longer

I’m in Cleveland, Ohio.  There is NO stock in the state’s three Apple Stores.  In fact, the closest stock is six hours away in Chicago.  There’s nothing in Pennsylvania (except just outside of Philly), Michigan, Indiana or Kentucky.  Amazing!  Just amazing!

In the past, Apple seems to have mostly caught up with demand of each of its new products within 45 days of launch.  This is going to be different.  The demand for this product at this price point is overwhelming.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Apple does not catch up with demand until January 09. 

For the next couple of months at least, iPhone sales are going to be solely a function of supply, not demand. 

The four cylinders of Mac, iPhone, iPod and iTunes are firing so rapidly now my head is spinning trying to cap the potential.  I could not be more bullish if I grew horns.