Calling ALL 3G iPhone OWNERS!

  • Posted: 24 November 2008 04:32 AM #271

    Purchased by Brother in law…Santa Fe, NM ATT store.

    BIL -

    IMEI:  011772005885xx
    Serial No.:    87841xxxxxx
    Purchased/Delivered: 11.06.08


    SIL -

    IMEI:  0117750026710xx
    Serial No.:  88840xxxxxx
    Purchased/Delivered: 11.06.08

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    I don’t mind being wrong…,I just hate being wrong so FAST!

         
  • Posted: 26 November 2008 09:31 PM #272

    Another Friend Bought an iPhone!

    Another friend of mine just bought an iPhone.  Here is the info:

    16GB Black iPhone Purchased on November 16.

    Serial No: 88842xxxxxx
    IMEI: 01 177200 9834723

         
  • Posted: 26 November 2008 09:39 PM #273

    [quote author=“andyzaky”]I think Apple is starting to mess with us to be honest.  I see their IP address on my website every single day.  I think all the press on IMEI data might have gotten Apple to change its IMEI numbers to make it more difficult to estimate thier iPhone sales.  I would be surprised if management wasn’t aware of the google spreadsheet.

    I believe Apple has set aside a production run, to be shipped to the US only.  These are being given production weeks that correspond not to the week produced, but to the week shipped.

    That’s due to our limited reach to new iPhone users (US/UK).  All other production is being shipped to the other 68 countries Apple has distribution deals with, and where our sources are virtually non-existent.

    Just look at how many TACs have been identified. Thirteen.  Each TAC represents ~1,000,000 handsets, therefore ~13,000,000 iPhones have been produced for the TACs we have identified.  That puts us way ahead of a 6.5 million unit quarter, as estimated all over the place.

    I had previously estimated 16 million units for this quarter, but have slimmed that down to 10 million, not because of actual economic weakness, but the fear that exists about it.

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  • Posted: 26 November 2008 10:24 PM #274

    I think 15 TACs have been identified smile

         
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    Posted: 26 November 2008 10:34 PM #275

    IBO,

    Which TACs are missing from this list?

    15 TACs discovered.
    161200
    161300
    161400
    171200
    171300
    171400
    174200
    174300
    174400
    177100
    177200
    177300
    177400
    177500
    177600

    Edit:  Added 177300 and 177400.  Changed 13 to 15 TACs.

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  • Posted: 26 November 2008 11:59 PM #276

    [quote author=“Mace”]IBO,

    Which TACs are missing from this list?

    13 TACs discovered.
    161200
    161300
    161400
    171200
    171300
    171400
    174200
    174300
    174400
    177100
    177200
    177500
    177600

    Actually, I see 177300 and 177400 on the spreadsheet itself.  Thus, there are apparently 15 TACs discovered.  See spreadsheet.

         
  • Posted: 27 November 2008 09:42 AM #277

    [quote author=“andyzaky”][quote author=“Mace”]IBO,


    Actually, I see 177300 and 177400 on the spreadsheet itself.  Thus, there are apparently 15 TACs discovered.  See spreadsheet.

    Then Apple has 15,000,0000 IMEIs assigned to it so far.  Subtract what was seen (but not claimed as sold by Apple) and it would appear that Apple will produce, at minimum, 15,000,000 units, which is getting pretty close to my original estimate (16,000,000).

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    Posted: 28 November 2008 04:29 AM #278

    [quote author=“Gregg Thurman”][quote author=“andyzaky”][quote author=“Mace”]IBO,


    Actually, I see 177300 and 177400 on the spreadsheet itself.  Thus, there are apparently 15 TACs discovered.  See spreadsheet.

    Then Apple has 15,000,0000 IMEIs assigned to it so far.  Subtract what was seen (but not claimed as sold by Apple) and it would appear that Apple will produce, at minimum, 15,000,000 units, which is getting pretty close to my original estimate (16,000,000).

    If we are already seeing 15 TACs I would expect at least 17 TACs by the end of December Qtr.  The low end of any production week estimates was around 500K so even if Apple has slowed production from 800K to 500K they will build 2M more.  As far as sales we should be in good shape compared to all the analyst estimates.

         
  • Posted: 28 November 2008 06:36 AM #279

    [quote author=“pats”]
    If we are already seeing 15 TACs I would expect at least 17 TACs by the end of December Qtr.  The low end of any production week estimates was around 500K so even if Apple has slowed production from 800K to 500K they will build 2M more.  As far as sales we should be in good shape compared to all the analyst estimates.

    Except that we are only seeing TACs 11771 through 11775 here.  That would be 5,000,000 units, and if I’m correct that Apple has set aside those TACs for distribution in the US/UK, we won’t “see” anymore TACs here.

    Otherwise I agree with your observation.

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    Posted: 29 November 2008 08:45 AM #280

    IMEI 0117740043285xx

    serial no: 84844xxxxxx

    purchased 11/29/08 at ATT store in Greater Boston.

         
  • Posted: 29 November 2008 09:35 AM #281

    There may be a wide disparity between the number of iPhones we document as sold to consumers and what Apple reports as sold for the quarter when one considers the 2 millions units in the channel at the end of the September quarter. A big wild card in the mix is how Apple manages channel inventory during the quarter.

         
  • Posted: 29 November 2008 10:27 AM #282

    [quote author=“DawnTreader”]There may be a wide disparity between the number of iPhones we document as sold to consumers and what Apple reports as sold for the quarter when one considers the 2 millions units in the channel at the end of the September quarter. A big wild card in the mix is how Apple manages channel inventory during the quarter.

    Not all that big.  Apple doesn’t like to keep more than 6 weeks inventory of ANYTHING.  The 3G was on sale for 11 weeks during Q4.  That works out to ~4,000,000 units in six weeks.  Apple already has 2 million on the books as ending inventory.  So the disparity between current production and sales should only be 2 million units.

    Apple’s cache, word of mouth, iPod advertising and the generally negative reviews of the Blackberry Storm are going to increase iPhone sales this quarter.  I’m sticking with my estimate of 10 million units, but am biased to the sunny side of that number.

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    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 29 November 2008 10:52 AM #283

    [quote author=“Gregg Thurman”]Apple’s cache, word of mouth, iPod advertising and the generally negative reviews of the Blackberry Storm are going to increase iPhone sales this quarter.  I’m sticking with my estimate of 10 million units, but am biased to the sunny side of that number.

    Considering the economy and the beginning inventory numbers, I’d be quite happy (and a bit surprised) to see 10 million iPhone shipments this quarter. One thing to consider is the iPod touch as an iPhone gift alternative.

         
  • Posted: 29 November 2008 11:50 AM #284

    [quote author=“DawnTreader”]There may be a wide disparity between the number of iPhones we document as sold to consumers and what Apple reports as sold for the quarter when one considers the 2 millions units in the channel at the end of the September quarter. A big wild card in the mix is how Apple manages channel inventory during the quarter.

    Apple HAD 2M in the channel @ 9/27. By Oct 21, Apple reported they had surpassed 10M for CY08, thus at least ~700k were sold, and I am thinking probably more like 1M. Therefore, I would surmise the channel inventory reported at qtr-end had a huge dent in it by the time of the earnings release.

    The key issue is what level will Apple end this qtr ? I’m thinking possibly more than 2M given the additional POS that will have come online since end of Q4, notable Russia. I also think many units will be sold days right before 25th, and the days after, opposed to weeks leading up, since handsets have to be activated at time of purchase.

    I think Apple has changed how it assigns IMEI numbers- likely to make it more difficult to track production.

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  • Posted: 29 November 2008 12:07 PM #285

    [quote author=“turleymuller”]

    Apple HAD 2M in the channel @ 9/27. By Oct 21, Apple reported they had surpassed 10M for CY08, thus at least ~700k were sold, and I am thinking probably more like 1M. Therefore, I would surmise the channel inventory reported at qtr-end had a huge dent in it by the time of the earnings release.

    The key issue is what level will Apple end this qtr ? I’m thinking possibly more than 2M given the additional POS that will have come online since end of Q4, notable Russia. I also think many units will be sold days right before 25th, and the days after, opposed to weeks leading up, since handsets have to be activated at time of purchase.

    I think Apple has changed how it assigns IMEI numbers- likely to make it more difficult to track production.

    TM, I appreciate your points. smile

    I do expect heavier iPhone sales in the days leading up to and the days following Christmas for a number of good reasons. I’m not so sure though of how Apple plans to handle ending channel inventory. I can see plenty of inventory to be maintained in the Asian channels due to the Lunar New Year celebrations beginning in late January as well as two to three weeks of channel supply for post-Christmas sales.