Calling ALL 3G iPhone OWNERS!

  • Posted: 02 August 2008 06:35 PM #31

    Week 30s! Oh happy day.


    :D 8-)  LOL

         
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    Posted: 02 August 2008 07:24 PM #32

    heres mine

    Black 16GB

    Serial: 83830
    IMEI: 0116140058982

    Just picked it up today 8/2

    Still need to get my dads info from him

    Mine is from Fort Lauderdale location by the way.

         
  • Posted: 02 August 2008 08:40 PM #33

    As an aside, referencing the numbers posted in this topic , should Apple maintain a manufacturing/sales rate of 600k per week, the company will reach the 10 million iPhones in CY 2008 at or before the end of the September quarter.

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 12:05 AM #34

    [quote author=“howlongtoretire”]Week 30s! Oh happy day.


    :D 8-)  LOL

    Can you increase the column width for IMEI and Sequence columns?  Thanks.

    BTW, I really appreciate your efforts.  Good job.

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  • Posted: 03 August 2008 12:11 AM #35

    [quote author=“Gregg Thurman”]It would also be very helpful if your readers included the model purchased.

    That can be determined from the serial number. It corresponds to each of the three available iPhone models.

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 01:07 AM #36

    [quote author=“howlongtoretire”]

    I am hesitant to project sales right now, since we don’t know if Apple has been setting aside units for the August launch. It’s possible they are setting aside a unique tac as well. Just don’t know.

    What do others think?

    Think?

    I wouldn’t worry about it one bit. Assuming continuing strong demand, it’s more important to determine manufacturing rates than sales rates. We can assume all handsets manufactured and shipped will be sold through to consumers by the end of the quarter.

    It’s the end of quarter channel fill and channel replenishments that will provide for amazing September quarter results. Even if Apple keeps eventual channel inventories on the low end of its usual levels (three to five weeks), even three weeks of sales inventory for non-Apple resellers on a global scale adds to the quarter’s tally.

    Again, I wouldn’t worry about sales at the moment. That said, a few numbers from buyers in the August release territories should answer the question. smile

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 03:34 AM #37

    [quote author=“DawnTreader”]

    That can be determined from the serial number. It corresponds to each of the three available iPhone models.

    Not that I can see. I’m seeing the same first three digits across models in some cases. Identifier could be later, but we haven’t tracked past the first five digits.

    I read on Apple discussions that maybe the first part was factory number (87, 88, etc.) and the third digit was the year). Dunno.

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 03:35 AM #38

    [quote author=“howlongtoretire”]I am hesitant to project sales right now, since we don’t know if Apple has been setting aside units for the August launch. It’s possible they are setting aside a unique tac as well. Just don’t know.

    What do others think?

    I think it’s extremely unlikely. What possible reason is there? The sensible thing is to switch 100%, very near the date. One week’s production would be enough, and the new countries can be 100% free of any launch issues (software bugs; cracked back cover).

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 03:42 AM #39

    [quote author=“sleepygeek”] One week’s production would be enough, and the new countries can be 100% free of any launch issues (software bugs; cracked back cover).

    600K to launch 20 more countries? Of course production could be higher by then, but still…

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2008 03:51 AM #40

    [quote author=“howlongtoretire”][quote author=“sleepygeek”] One week’s production would be enough, and the new countries can be 100% free of any launch issues (software bugs; cracked back cover).

    600K to launch 20 more countries? Of course production could be higher by then, but still…

    Which countries are they? A lot will depend on the expected volumes. For example, they will sell a lot less in Panama than China or Russia.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 04:07 AM #41

    Further points: It looks plausible that 500K were prebuilt with a component missing and set aside. When the part began to arrive, IMEI numbering recommenced at, say 700,000. This was prudent so it’s easy to tell these units from later ones, since the serial numbers are only allocated when manufacture is completed. It leaves a space just in case any more had to be part-built before launch. Thereafter IMEI’s give every appearance of being sequential.

    So that would give us minimum 2488490 units that could have reached end-users in the first 3 weeks. Given the shortages, it seems unlikely there are 400K in the channel, so they have been selling at 700-800K a week since launch. Apple are probably making more gross margin from cellphones than Nokia already!

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 05:49 AM #42

    OK, found out where some folks on the Apple Discussions boards have been going to find out info based on serial numbers only (no imei). Seems it has been running for years as a resource for pretty much any Apple product.

    Unfortunately (coincidentally?) the site is down. I took a look at google’s cached version. It has one input box for your Apple product’s serial number. Based on that, it tells you:

    (actual data from a post on apple forum)

    Factory: 88
    Production year: 2008
    Production week: 28 (July)
    Production number: 18595 (within this week)

    Interesting that the weekly production number can be determined from the serial number.

    Site (in case it comes back online):  

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 06:51 AM #43

    [quote author=“DawnTreader”]

    I wouldn’t worry about it one bit. Assuming continuing strong demand, it’s more important to determine manufacturing rates than sales rates. We can

    Again, I wouldn’t worry about sales at the moment. That said, a few numbers from buyers in the August release territories should answer the question. smile

    If the supply stays strong (and it appears so with US Apple Stores), we might estimate (or corroborate) #‘s sold in U.S. by the speed at which they leave the store.  Assumptions about # of Apple staff, time to sign a customer up, and # of Apple stores are very estimable—which is how I KNEW our friend Gene Munster was way low for the first 3 days.  Admittedly, it only helps with U.S. sales and AT&T stores are a wild card. 

    Probably best used to corroborate what manufacture rates indicate.

         
  • Posted: 03 August 2008 09:46 AM #44

    [quote author=“Mercel”]Probably best used to corroborate what manufacture rates indicate.

    I think we can safely assume there’s no channel inventory build out at the moment. smile

    An shipments to T owned stores is being used to fill pre-orders at the moment. Please remember a “sale” occurs at the moment ownership of the handsets change hands so any shipments to non-Apple owned distribution points may be considered sold at time of shipment. Inventory turns at each point of sale must be phenomenal and eventual channel inventory build-out at T stores in the States and retail outlets for other global service partners will provide at least a one-time bump to sales. In other words, while sell-through is important, at this point in the product’s sales cycle the manufacturing numbers are far more important. We’ll eventually get some activation info from T as a lagging and corroborating indicator of consumer sell-through since all phones are activated at time of purchase.

         
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    Posted: 03 August 2008 09:54 AM #45

    16gb black
    s/n: 85828XXXXXX
    imei: 01 161300 4874 XX
    July 28
    The Netherlands