Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer, July 21, 2008:

We will be delivering state-of-the-art new products that I cannot discuss today that our competitors will not be able to match.

OK, what are our best guesses about the “Brick”?  Entirely new technology/application/market?  New twist on an existing product?

Here are my guesses and why I’m thinking that way:

“Brick” is a code word, yes, but there is usually at least some cryptic reference to the actual product when companies devise code names for projects.  Based on that observation I’ll assume it’s a product that is not self contained, but hooks up to something else, since “brick” implies something that does not interface with human beings by itself.

Now, what product could Apple be working on that is not self-contained and why?  Apple has a proclivity for producing all-in-one objects where it makes sense.  So let’s assume all-in-one doesn’t make sense for this product.  Why?  Because what it connects to, and what interfaces with human beings already exists.  That would include things like video displays, keyboards, networks, sound systems, and digital TVs.

Out of all of this, two likely candidates emerge as potential “bricks”.  The first is a consumer CPU tower that would fit into the product line somewhere between a Mac mini and a MacPro.  Apple really needs something customizable in the price/performance slot in between those two products.  The iMac is there, but is limited performance-wise by its form factor.  Many folks want a traditional form factor that uses higher performance components, and can use their existing (formerly Windows) monitor and other peripherals.  I suspect that there are a large number of potential switchers who don’t want a Mac mini, can’t justify a Mac Pro, and don’t want to abandon their expensive displays and other peripherals.  So yes, a consumer level tower would help accelerate the move from Windows to Mac.  Such a product would likely be greeted with luke-warm enthusiasm by analysts and investors, but I believe it would quickly prove to be the item that finally breaks the switcher logjam, producing a flood of new Mac users.  If that product actually replaced the iMac that would account for Apple discontinuing orders for some classes of chips and Apple’s recent statement about margins being reduced due to “product transitions”.

On the other hand, Apple has a product designed to be a “brick” already.  It’s called AppleTV.  It has lain pretty much dormant for a year or so now, existing in that state of product limbo peculiar to Apple products that are part of future ecosystems that don’t yet have the rest of the pieces in place.  If AppleTV is waiting for the rest of it’s ecosystem to emerge, what are the factors that dictate that timing?  Let’s look at what we know will happen, but hasn’t yet happened:

1.  Analog TV disappears forever in Feb 2009.  Why try to develop a system prior to that event if that system would have to deal with both analog and digital TV?  Wait until analog is dead or taking its last gasp, then release a product for digital only.

2.  The iTunes store has only recently added features like movie rentals that would fit an AppleTV ecosystem, but what is not yet there is a high speed distribution system that is not dependent on one of Apple’s content vending competitiors, like Comcast or Verizon.  Both have shown a willingness to throttle competitive content when they can get away with it and in the case of AppleTV suddenly adding millions of downloads per hour they could justify it.  But how can Apple get content from iTunes to AppleTV without going through hostile territiory?

3.  WiMax is the answer to the question posed in #2.  Wimax is fast, with up to 70Mbs speeds, and it has a range of up to 30 miles.  In addition to the 2.5 GHz band already licensed to WiMax developers, the 700 Mhz licensed frequencies being cleared by the demise of analog TV in February will be available to WiMax.  A few years ago Apple acquired massive amounts of physical server space that it has yet to announce that it has put to use.  Seems to be some opportunity for synergy there.

4.  WiMAx is about to go commercial in several test markets, like Reno and Portland.

5.  Sprint has balked at continued development of WiMax with Clearwire.  Clearwire owns massive amounts of WiMax frequency licenses and needs a new partner/buyer.  Apple needs the technology and has lots of cash.  Never forget that Craig McCaw built and sold the system that is now AT&T Wireless.  I don’t think he has ever had intentions of doing anything but selling Clearwire at the appropriate time.

So does the “Brick” refer to some new evolution of an AppleTV based content delivery system based on WiMax?  Does Apple become the buyer for Clearwire?  A partner to replace Sprint?  I don’t know.  I don’t have all the pieces.  This one is a long shot, but who knows?

Funny - but perhaps that is exactly what Apple are thinking.

Thanks for the laugh!

Great post, Zeke.

My belief is that the brick refers to breaking of windows; we shall see.

For some time I have been expecting an 11” laptop for $899.  Since Apple has no entry in the under $1,000 segment, this represents a growth opportunity if it can be done without cannibalizing the existing Macbook.  But unlikely this is the Brick.

I like the idea of a tower both in the context of it being a Windows killer and because I would like to buy one.  (My next computer, if I have to choose from current products will be a MacPro that I just don’t need.)  Assuming this is the “amazing product with features competitors cannot match”, what would those features be?  We are not likely to see major software changes announced until January, if then.  So, what can be done with tower hardware that would be a game changer?

I believe that Apple has new video conferencing capability coming, but January or even next June is maybe the time for that.

Maybe it is AppleTV, Zeke.  That does fit the calendar perfectly. 

I am puzzled.

[quote author=“capablanca”]Great post, Zeke.

My belief is that the brick refers to breaking of windows; we shall see.

For some time I have been expecting an 11” laptop for $899.  Since Apple has no entry in the under $1,000 segment, this represents a growth opportunity if it can be done without cannibalizing the existing Macbook.  But unlikely this is the Brick.

I like the idea of a tower both in the context of it being a Windows killer and because I would like to buy one.  (My next computer, if I have to choose from current products will be a MacPro that I just don’t need.)  Assuming this is the “amazing product with features competitors cannot match”, what would those features be?  We are not likely to see major software changes announced until January, if then.  So, what can be done with tower hardware that would be a game changer?

I believe that Apple has new video conferencing capability coming, but January or even next June is maybe the time for that.

Maybe it is AppleTV, Zeke.  That does fit the calendar perfectly. 

I am puzzled.

Thanks for the well thought out reply.  I’d love for it to be something with AppleTV that would start a whole new market.  The potential is definitely there and the timing couldn’t be better.  But the more likely and doable item is the mid-range, customizable desktop tower.  It just makes a lot of sense, for many of the same reasons that the Mac mini made sense as a switcher machine.

You can see a brick as the perfect weapon to break windows BUT you can also see it as something to build a wall.

I’ll make a Nostradamus of myself here and predict that the Brick will be a replacement for the AppleTV and the Mac Mini, incorporating PVR functionnalities and acting as an hdmi hub. You’ll hook your Brick to Apple’s Cinema Display successor, the Wall, a 1080p LCD tv/monitor with an isight camera built-in, cable-card slot… If Apple is listening, start discussions now with Nintendo to make the Brick being able to play wii games.

I think it will be AppleTV MK II. Maybe a combo of macmini and AppleTV including blueray player?  A launch before christmas will kick butt, even more when it is a true consumer product…video, music..stuff like that. The market for such a product is a lot bigger than it is for macs. It could be the last trojan horse put in place… iPod…iPhone…AppleTV, maybe with a new name?! Next step would be the connection between those 3. Hmmm..i wonder how new displays will fit in?? Full HD displays as addition?  Any thoughts folks?

It could also be an Apple TV with real gaming capabilities.

Current game consoles have been including some aTV like features over the last years, so why not aTV could evolve to the gaming world? I think this would be huge, and the model for developers could be similar as the current App Store for the iPhone, which has proven very successful.

This device could also use directly other physical media such as existing DVD and stuff. Then, truly and at last ALL digital media will be finally integrated in the most convenient way.

After all, current game consoles already look as a brick!

I dream of some wimax multitouch tablet with mobile OS X.

And Apple creating or joining (with a financial stake) a wimax network.

unfortunately, if true AAPL will tank

[quote author=“Hamourabi”]I dream of some wimax multitouch tablet with mobile OS X.

And Apple creating or joining (with a financial stake) a wimax network.

unfortunately, if true AAPL will tank

This would be cool but dont you think it would be a ..uhmm somewhat niche product compared to a redesigned AppleTV?

[quote author=“MacB”][quote author=“Hamourabi”]I dream of some wimax multitouch tablet with mobile OS X.

And Apple creating or joining (with a financial stake) a wimax network.

unfortunately, if true AAPL will tank

This would be cool but dont you think it would be a ..uhmm somewhat niche product compared to a redesigned AppleTV?

for many of us it could replace macbook+iphone

Northern Exposure?

The last time I heard of The Brick was on Northern Exposure. So make some metaphors for Bar & Grill and see what comes from that. I do like the “brick breaks windows” better, however.

brick to break windows

could the brick to break windows simply be a leopard retail box - to install on any pc?

Re: brick to break windows

[quote author=“applecore99”]could the brick to break windows simply be a leopard retail box - to install on any pc?

Welcome to AFB applecore99. I had a similar thought and talked it over with someone with Apple who says its possible technically. Talked to Tommo who disagrees. Tommo BTW is ok but is busy battling with bankers and licking his chops (his words) over buying the 2011 LEAPS.
Back on subject. I keep thinking of all those legacy PC’s and a box that could give them the Mac experience is pretty exciting. Being a Tech idiot I cannot spec on what it would take. However it might fit in to what Oppenheimer said on last CC…

Re: brick to break windows

[quote author=“SNIPUS”][quote author=“applecore99”]could the brick to break windows simply be a leopard retail box - to install on any pc?

Welcome to AFB applecore99. I had a similar thought and talked it over with someone with Apple who says its possible technically. Talked to Tommo who disagrees. Tommo BTW is ok but is busy battling with bankers and licking his chops (his words) over buying the 2011 LEAPS.
Back on subject. I keep thinking of all those legacy PC’s and a box that could give them the Mac experience is pretty exciting. Being a Tech idiot I cannot spec on what it would take. However it might fit in to what Oppenheimer said on last CC…

I think it is technically possible. But what is the advantage to Apple for doing this? The battle over OS has largely been won by Msft. (To think that the battle is still being fought is so ‘90s) Further, Mac OS’ market share continues to grow along with new hardware sales. And due to this growth, it has reached a point in which software developers are creating Mac OS software (which was the main reason for growing Mac OS share).  By offering Mac OS to any PC, they will lose hardware sales and lose hardware/software integration. Look at the difference in developer response between the iPhone and Android.
Apple is doing just fine and does not need to have 50%+ OS market share to be successful.

Going off the board…

I’m going completely on a limb and away from the above suggestions:

The brick is a device in the size range between a Mac Mini and portable drive. It is intended to be light weight and highly portable, but also entirely dependent on other devices to operate.

It will:

1) Serve as a complete repository for a users information (think of the Home on iPod, where a home folder and all settings were retained on an iPod for portability).

2) Potentially include a low-end processor and connectivity to other devices i/o (monitor, keyboard, mouse). The processor could be scaled up dynamically (think x-grid) if connected to another host computer.

3) Or be entirely dependent on the processor of the device it’s connected to (tower, laptop, iPhone), allowing the user of the “brick” to have complete access to all their data, apps and settings no matter what computer they’re using.

Target customers would be those in creative fields who frequently move among computers, ie:

1) photographers, who work with Mac Pros in the office/studio, but MacBook Airs in the field

2) video pros, who are on location with MBPs, but in the office with MacBooks

3) creative pros, who need access to lots of data, but could suffice with their iPhones to run a presentation on the “brick” while it is connected to a projector.

From a sales perspective:

1) Facilitates the ability for a person to seamlessly move from a primary computer to multiple computers (ie: “now that I can make a MB Air fit into an easy work flow with my tower, it makes sense to buy one.”)

2) All the iPhone users have the ability to buy a “brick”—which can either be an accessory for their iPhone, but also be a “try me” mac when connected to their existing monitor, keyboard mouse (like the mini)