Need some help here.  I’m putting an article together and urging several prominent members of the media to push this story out on Monday morning before the bell. The article I want to write and want others to write as well is, “Apple Sold its 10 Millionth iPhone.” Or “Apple reached its 10 million iPhone Goal Way Ahead of Expectations.”

To do this, I need to find out what IMEI number would be highly suggestive of such a claim.  I need something overwhelmingly indisputable.  I would appreciate it if someone could get back to me soon.  I’m having a bunch of buddies go on a witch hunt across the country.  Im going to probably buy the iPhone and take a picture of the number to be added to the article.  Any help would be great.  If we could get this article put together, I think I might be able to get Jim Goldman to push the article, and might be able to persuade Philip Elmer-DeWitt to push the article as well.  Im also going to try to reach Apple for comment.  Which will never work.  I’ll call investor relations.  They’ll at least pick up the phone.  I need your help.  This story could considerable help Apple’s stock price.  The stock is just itching to explode to the upside.  So many people are sitting on the side-lines itching to get into this stock.  One good news story could send Apple parabolic.

I think its a given that having sold 6M 1st gen iPhones, at least 4M are in the bag with the TAC series being in the 6 (or is it 7) million for the 3G version.

The evidence is virtually indisputable.

Frankly, I doubt the market gives a damn. I love your articles, and you analysis and I’m a big fan of yours Andy, but right now Mr Market couldn’t give a toss about whether Apple has sold 10M or 20M iPhones. Its too busy liquidating stock to raise cash for redemptions and margin calls, unfortunately.

Colour me cynical, and sorry if you think I’m pissing on your bonfire, but that’s the way I see it right now. Any rally off the news will be sold very, very hard because the assumption is that we’re going into recession/depression and the 10M number would be “backward looking” and not indicative of future growth blah blah blah.

You’ve a worthy goal, and a month ago it would have had a discernible impact (and maybe a long lasting one at that). Right now, after this incredible churn, I’d actually prefer to see the stock fall further, wash out, flatline, and then see accumulation take place from conviction long-term buyers rather than the hedge fund fcckers who have screwed the stock up and down like a yo-yo for the last few years..

Any rally here, in any stock, unless there’s some broad market miracle, is simply going to be a rallying call - for the sellers and shorts.

Having said that I’d obviously love to be proven wrong; personally I believe that including the original iPhone, Apple have now sold up to around 15M+ iPhones (most people forget that product shipped into the channel excluding Apple’s own stores count as product sold, and the roll-out to 50+ countries is a lot of channel fill sales in the bag), but Mr Market couldn’t care less.

Tommo is right.

We get sold on bad news and even more on good news.

Everybody is selling their winners to raise money I would guess, and many of the institutions have bought AAPL probably much lower than it is now, so it makes sense for them to sell it when they need liquidity. And also the shorts are a factor. Just my opinion.

It is maybe a possibility for brave people who have money left to get rich.

Depending on my year bonus I will have yet to decide if I am brave. Or maybe by the time I have money, this opportunity is in the rear view mirror.

Anyway, good luck with the article. The iPhones are selling quite well in Slovakia despite the stupid plans they are sold with (1GB data on T-Mobile and 2GB data with Orange) and despite the fact there is no iTunes Music Store here yet and that the AppStore does not accept embossed debit cards but only credit cards - most Slovaks have debit cards, we do not use credit cards much.

sorry to stray offtopic

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”]I think its a given that having sold 6M 1st gen iPhones, at least 4M are in the bag with the TAC series being in the 6 (or is it 7) million for the 3G version.

The evidence is virtually indisputable.

Frankly, I doubt the market gives a damn. I love your articles, and you analysis and I’m a big fan of yours Andy, but right now Mr Market couldn’t give a toss about whether Apple has sold 10M or 20M iPhones. Its too busy liquidating stock to raise cash for redemptions and margin calls, unfortunately.

Colour me cynical, and sorry if you think I’m pissing on your bonfire, but that’s the way I see it right now. Any rally off the news will be sold very, very hard because the assumption is that we’re going into recession/depression and the 10M number would be “backward looking” and not indicative of future growth blah blah blah.

You’ve a worthy goal, and a month ago it would have had a discernible impact (and maybe a long lasting one at that). Right now, after this incredible churn, I’d actually prefer to see the stock fall further, wash out, flatline, and then see accumulation take place from conviction long-term buyers rather than the hedge fund fcckers who have screwed the stock up and down like a yo-yo for the last few years..

Any rally here, in any stock, unless there’s some broad market miracle, is simply going to be a rallying call - for the sellers and shorts.

Having said that I’d obviously love to be proven wrong; personally I believe that including the original iPhone, Apple have now sold up to around 15M+ iPhones (most people forget that product shipped into the channel excluding Apple’s own stores count as product sold, and the roll-out to 50+ countries is a lot of channel fill sales in the bag), but Mr Market couldn’t care less.

Generally speaking, I agree on you theory on market behavior.  I’ve been trading for like 10 years now and I’ve seen the markets and how bad things could get.  Yet, I do think the market is about to rally in a huge way right now despite hedge fund liquidations.  There is so much money on the sidelines and there’s even more money on the sidelines waiting for one excuse to jump into Apple.  Right now, no one expects Apple to have sold the 7.5 million iPhones necessary to reach the 10 million 2008 iPhone goal.  I think that such news story, widely published might cause a piling in on the stock.  Especially given the severity of the decline to the down side.  Remember when GOOG reported earnings and jump over 100 points?  Its because too many people were too bearish and on one side of the trade that it cause mass hysteria to the upside.  Just as when a stock has ran 70% in a year, bad news could cause a major sell off, so too in bear markets extraordinary news can cause a major rally.  Even if its for a day.  There are so is much money on the sidelines waiting for any excuse to get into the market.  I think earnings season is going to lead to a rally of epic proportions.  Earnings season led to the massive rally between march and may and it will probably lead to a massive bear market rally between October and December.  That’s just my opinion.  I would like to try. 

That being said, I need to know how to interpret the IMEI analysts done on this board.  Also, I need to know how probative the evidence is that Apple has indeed sold as many iPhones as suggested in the chart.  I already have a number of prominent members of the media waiting for my report on the issue.  I need to get a write up by Sunday night.  So how does one read this chart:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pUwZATIrXuTeCVdJHkQY1Zg&gid=0

And what should I take from it?  I’m having a hard time seeing what this chart means.  If someone could give me a summary of how to read this chart and what the numbers mean, it would be greatly appreciated.  If you’ve been in huge market slides in the past, you’ll know that these things often turn around on a dime.  Apple could easily rally $30 next week. Case in point, it rallied from $120 to $144 in two days two weeks ago.  Maybe not on the iPHone news, but if earnings don’t disappoint as bad as everyone is anticipating that it will, Market could rally.  Case in point, it rallied from $120 to $144 in two days two weeks ago. 

Markets rarely just go straight down without a meaningful multi-month rally.  Apple could easily see $160 by December.  Actually, its very likely that we’ll see such a rally because the hedge funds who happen to be alive, will want to make their profit before year-end.  October-December rallies is how they get there.  I know a few fund managers and they tend to make their money during that time frame - usually using low float stocks that they could manipulate by forcing short covering. 

We have to take a shot here.  If anything, it might help Apple get over $100.00.  You don’t want Apple to get too comfortable sitting under $100.00 a share.  That’s when things could get nasty.

don’t quote me because I could be wrong, but I think 11746xxxxxxxx would get us to 10 Million.

WHy would that be?

The last thing I want is to go into earnings with the market expecting 10 million + iPhones.  We could get a pop of maybe $10-15 in the short term, but would be let down at earnings if they announce less than 10 mill or even just barely 10 million. 

I would much prefer to see us going into earnings where we are now with Gene predicting 5 million and most others predicting even less. I think we would get a much bigger pop at earnings and would build up some sustainable momentum to carry us right into the holiday season where Apple will be a ton of attention.

[quote author=“WillyPitt”]The last thing I want is to go into earnings with the market expecting 10 million + iPhones.  We could get a pop of maybe $10-15 in the short term, but would be let down at earnings if they announce less than 10 mill or even just barely 10 million. 

I would much prefer to see us going into earnings where we are now with Gene predicting 5 million and most others predicting even less. I think we would get a much bigger pop at earnings and would build up some sustainable momentum to carry us right into the holiday season where Apple will be a ton of attention.

True. But sometime you need pre-report good news.  The idea is to try and get Apple up above $100.00 Trust me on this.  You don’t want Apple to be too comfortable sitting under $100.00 or things will get nasty.  As the bailout news is behind and a fed cut is imminent, I think the market is going to rally over the next few weeks.  Getting the 10 million iPhone news out there today can put a floor on the stock.  Moreover, Im less concerned about the initial rally than I am with getting stability in the stock price.  Look at GOOG.  Complete stable now.  It falls with the markts, but doesn’t get completely pulverized like Apple.  Goog is down just 10 from where they were when Apple was sitting at $160.  The stock has support now.  Apple falling $32.00 in 5 trading days should be a cause for concern.  I think that a 10 million iPhone surprise will at least put Apple under some solid grounding.  That way when they report, they can move up in a measured pace.  10 million iPhones will be baked in on earnings, but EPS and guidance won’t be.  When EPS is reported way above expectations and if Apple has the balls to offer in-line or above consensus guidance, then we’ll get a nice move to the upside.  That’s the way I see it.  I urged investor relations to for a buy-back at the same time MSFT offered one.  If that happenend, Apple would be sitting at $130.  It may not have moved the stock, but it would have put some solid grounding in Apple.  Look at MSFTs performance before the buyback.  It barely moved on some of those big down days over the past few weeks.  Moreover, MSFT was actually green when the market was deep red on two separate occasions.  Its all about putting support under the stock price.  I buyback or 10 iphones sold news will help do that.

Explanation?

Im simply looking for someone to explain what the data points signify in this chart:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pUwZATIrXuTeCVdJHkQY1Zg&gid=0

Is this U.S. only Im assuming or does it include the rest of the planet?

I would like a cliffs notes version of what these numbers are and how probative the numbers are for estimates.

Re: Explanation?

[quote author=“andyzaky”]Im simply looking for someone to explain what the data points signify in this chart:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pUwZATIrXuTeCVdJHkQY1Zg&gid=0

Is this U.S. only Im assuming or does it include the rest of the planet?

I would like a cliffs notes version of what these numbers are and how probative the numbers are for estimates.

Nobody know for sure how Apple assign IMEI and serial numbers. Apple is known to be quite secretive about its activity and any use of such data is bound to be deceptive.

Analysts and other evidence (web market share of iPhone) point to less than 5M G3 sold during Q4. Furthermore it looks like the pace of G3 sales slowed dramatically during the month of september (web share was up 0.1% in august and 0.02% in september (that is 5 time less!).

Best is to wait for Q4 results and I am not really optimistic for Q4 and Q1 09 perspectives. iPhones are luxury devices in a time of economic doom and are facing now some real competition form Google, Nokia, Samsung and Rimm.

I would really like to be proven wrong but should we be in denial of a really sad situation?

Andy count me as one of your fans.  However I have to agree with some the guys above. 10 million this year is a given and s bit of a surprise doing it before the end of the quarter. More impressive is IMO how many 3G phones were sold in the quarter and the highest analyst I think is 5 million but the guesstimates from this board and Sanity board run from 6 million to 10 million for the quarter.
We probably get a press conference on the 14th and if SJ does not announce iphone sales we will get them from Oppenheimer on the 21st. Your story will give the stock a pop but it will be short lived as the funds will sell into it as they unwind. That is my personal opinion and I would bet the stock would not stay over $100 for a day. But what you are doing is terrific and I hope you are right about a rally soon. You might want to send it to Briefing.com as well as the collapse on Friday really got underway when the SJ heart attack FUD was published there. If no one has explained the chart to you the guy to do it is a member here and the creator of the Apple Sanity board howlongtoretire or HLTR as he is known

[quote author=“andyzaky”][
That being said, I need to know how to interpret the IMEI analysts done on this board.  Also, I need to know how probative the evidence is that Apple has indeed sold as many iPhones as suggested in the chart. I already have a number of prominent members of the media waiting for my report on the issue.  I need to get a write up by Sunday night.

Could that mean that those media have been bought the task of some AAPL pumping by the hedgies?

Obviously it is needed to organize some profitable sell off after Q4 results!

Andy, I’d sell on the news. Why?

1) Because selling on the news this year has worked and it’ll likely continue to work.
2) Because the bulls already think Apple has already sold 10 million iPhones and they aren’t buying the common stock anyway.
3) Because the bears believe that the bum rush to purchase an iPhone is over with and that Apple will now experience a cyclical damping in any sales space that requires monthly maintenance like phone contracts that cost money.
4) Because Apple’s momentum that carried the stock so high in the past continues to unwind and forces larger than news that Apple has sold a zillion phones, cured cancer or ushered in world peace can negate or stifle the impact of those larger economic forces.

Re: Explanation?

[quote author=“Hamourabi”]iPhones are luxury devices in a time of economic doom and are facing now some real competition form Google, Nokia, Samsung and Rimm.

Actually that’s simply untrue. The iPhone makes for a perfect alternative to buying another branded cellphone and an iPod. That’s a good thing in a weak economic environment because its less expenditure.

In addition, the iPhone, being subsidised to the cost of an iPod nano in some countries, and even free on very reasonable talk plans in others, is not priced out of any market, whether in a recession or not.

So the iPhone is recession proof.

As for competition? There isn’t any, yet. Its so far ahead of the pack it has the track all to itself.

Re: Explanation?

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“Hamourabi”]iPhones are luxury devices in a time of economic doom and are facing now some real competition form Google, Nokia, Samsung and Rimm.

Actually that’s simply untrue. The iPhone makes for a perfect alternative to buying another branded cellphone and an iPod. That’s a good thing in a weak economic environment because its less expenditure.

In addition, the iPhone, being subsidised to the cost of an iPod nano in some countries, and even free on very reasonable talk plans in others, is not priced out of any market, whether in a recession or not.

So the iPhone is recession proof.

As for competition? There isn’t any, yet. Its so far ahead of the pack it has the track all to itself.

Yes I know you are right but I am so depressed… Only wanted you to tell me the truth makes me feel better thanks

[quote author=“Eric Landstrom”]Andy, I’d sell on the news. Why?

1) Because selling on the news this year has worked and it’ll likely continue to work.
2) Because the bulls already think Apple has already sold 10 million iPhones and they aren’t buying the common stock anyway.
3) Because the bears believe that the bum rush to purchase an iPhone is over with and that Apple will now experience a cyclical damping in any sales space that requires monthly maintenance like phone contracts that cost money.
4) Because Apple’s momentum that carried the stock so high in the past continues to unwind and forces larger than news that Apple has sold a zillion phones, cured cancer or ushered in world peace can negate or stifle the impact of those larger economic forces.

I completely agree with Eric. Andy, as you’re probably aware, I’m one of the biggest AAPL-bulls on the planet, but this is in my view the only sensible strategy right now . Newsflow means nothing - for now - not with the Great Unwind going on. Good luck though! If you pull this stock up to $130 with an article about 10M iPhones sold then it’ll be the equivalent of a strong man pulling an old steam locomotive along the track by his teeth