[quote author=“andyzaky”]And what does TAC stand for, pardon my ignorance.

How about checking Wikipedia ? Lots of information and interesting links.

Good night from the Canary Islands

[quote author=“andyzaky”][quote author=“Mace”]pats,

You’re amazing.  I didn’t expect anyone to know the answer.  Let expand Andy’s IMEI:

IMEI 01-177600-190685-0

01=USA
177600 is the TAC
190685 is a serialized number from 0 to 999999
0=checksum

Am I correct?

And what does TAC stand for, pardon my ignorance.

Type Allocation Code it is used to identify a particular model/manufacture of a phone

I think it must be clear by now that nobody can answer Andy’s original question. The careful collection and spread sheeting of the IEM numbers hasn’t helped us predict with any accuracy where iPhone 3G sales stand.

Re: I

[quote author=“pats”]Andy since no one has really answered your question I will give you my understanding of the IMEI number.  The format of the number is defined and certain portions have definite meaning for instance the first two digit 01 means the IMEI is assigned by the US the last digit of the series is a check sum so that it doesn’t matter.  The middle contains a TAC and a sequence.  Apple applies for a block of numbers and then uses that block with the TAC With both the old and new TAC, the code can be used to uniquely identify the model of phone being used (although some models may have more than one code, depending on revision, manufacturing location, and other factors).  Since the sequence is 6 digit the spreadsheet assumes that each time a new sequence is observed that makes another million being built.  Since 1 million were sold in the first 3 days you would expect a shift to a 2nd sequence also there was a range of production of 500-800K per week estimates and rumors that production began in May with a possible 2 week delay for some part which shifted the date of release from the end of June to the 11th of Jul.  Put that all together and mix it up and we really don’t know.  But the Iphone has used 612, 613, 614, 712, 713, 714, 742 and now 776 which equals 8 sequences of 6 digits.  How many sold your guess.

So what function does the spread sheet serve then?

For more info on IMEI format, read this site .

Re: I

[quote author=“andyzaky”][quote author=“pats”]Andy since no one has really answered your question I will give you my understanding of the IMEI number.  The format of the number is defined and certain portions have definite meaning for instance the first two digit 01 means the IMEI is assigned by the US the last digit of the series is a check sum so that it doesn’t matter.  The middle contains a TAC and a sequence.  Apple applies for a block of numbers and then uses that block with the TAC With both the old and new TAC, the code can be used to uniquely identify the model of phone being used (although some models may have more than one code, depending on revision, manufacturing location, and other factors).  Since the sequence is 6 digit the spreadsheet assumes that each time a new sequence is observed that makes another million being built.  Since 1 million were sold in the first 3 days you would expect a shift to a 2nd sequence also there was a range of production of 500-800K per week estimates and rumors that production began in May with a possible 2 week delay for some part which shifted the date of release from the end of June to the 11th of Jul.  Put that all together and mix it up and we really don’t know.  But the Iphone has used 612, 613, 614, 712, 713, 714, 742 and now 776 which equals 8 sequences of 6 digits.  How many sold your guess.

So what function does the spread sheet serve then?

I didn’‘t write it, but it provides checks and balances for instance if we assume that you can manufacture 1M per week then if I see 3 sequences in one manufacturing week the data is worthless, and I wouldn’t use the model.  I would expect to see some high sequence numbers before the TAC changes. If the numbers track with what we think we know then it gives some confidence in the use of the data for determining how long a sequence went from build to sale and does the build rate make sense with the rumors of 500K-800K per week.  With a couple weeks of pre-built for the launch.  Personally I’m using 6M for the qtr which is the 500K per week and pre build, but with the IMEI numbers the production rate looks closer to 750K - 800K per week.  For sales you could take the IMEI and assume that Apple has about 4 weeks of inventory and some amount of spares for repair/refurb.  Only Apple’s inventory would matter because the carrier buys the phone from Apple.

[quote author=“willrob”]I think it must be clear by now that nobody can answer Andy’s original question. The careful collection and spread sheeting of the IEM numbers hasn’t helped us predict with any accuracy where iPhone 3G sales stand.

Hasn’t it? That’s news to me. We’ve been doing this since the launch of the first iPhone. Its been pretty revealing to-date.
All the answers Andy needs are in   this topic and associated discussion both here and on the IV AAPL Sanity board.

[quote author=“Tommo_UK”][quote author=“willrob”]I think it must be clear by now that nobody can answer Andy’s original question. The careful collection and spread sheeting of the IEM numbers hasn’t helped us predict with any accuracy where iPhone 3G sales stand.

Hasn’t it? That’s news to me. We’ve been doing this since the launch of the first iPhone. Its been pretty revealing to-date.
All the answers Andy needs are in   this topic and associated discussion both here and on the IV AAPL Sanity board.

FWIW, my friend bought a black 16GB tonight here in LA.

IMEI : 0117430001521xx
SERIAL : 86836

how are these getting into the spreadsheet? Do I need to PM howlongtoretire?

Allow me to summarize:

IMEI=short for International Mobile Equipment Identity, is a unique number given to every single mobile phone.

Format=xx-yyyyyy-dddddd-e

xx=manufacturer code ) TAC=Type Allocation Code
yyyyyy=model code )

dddddd=six digit represents device serial number

e=check digit (usually set to 0).

yyyyyy in circulation are:
161200
161300
161400
171200
171300
171400
174200
174300
174400
177600

10 blocks of 1 million devices manufactured i.e. 10 million manufactured.

[quote author=“Mace”]Allow me to summarize:

IMEI=short for International Mobile Equipment Identity, is a unique number given to every single mobile phone.

Format=xx-yyyyyy-dddddd-e

xx=manufacturer code ) TAC=Type Allocation Code
yyyyyy=model code )

dddddd=six digit represents device serial number

e=check digit (usually set to 0).

yyyyyy in circulation are:
161200
161300
161400
171200
171300
171400
174200
174300
174400
177600

10 blocks of 1 million devices manufactured i.e. 10 million manufactured.

And so the question is, how many of those are in hands of individuals and how many of those are in Apple’s inventory?

[quote author=“superbaka”]how are these getting into the spreadsheet? Do I need to PM howlongtoretire?

superbaka, I’ve been taking care of the updates for the last couple of weeks. Thanks for your submission, and thanks to everyone else who’ve submitted their IMEIs.

Andy, the function simply subtracts the six-digit sequences from the IMEIs to derive a count between them, and adds a million for every new TAC, so it assumes that all one million sequence numbers get assigned to an iPhone. Then, we just take the count by week using an interpolation of the weekly cut-off point.

This is what’s represented by the blue bars in the chart (annualized in millions), and the red bars represent the weekly average of the number of days from the beginning of the production week to the buy or ship date reported by the submitter.

Article is up .

My comments:

hltr and AAPL Sanity deserve credit but go unmentioned.

Also, regarding Andy’s claim that Apple is on track to sell XX million phones this year—can we really use original 3G launch sales rates to extrapolate through the rest of 2008… especially considering the emerging slowdown?

[quote author=“lumi”] Article is up .

My comments:

hltr and AAPL Sanity deserve credit but go unmentioned.

Also, regarding Andy’s claim that Apple is on track to sell XX million phones this year—can we really use original 3G launch sales rates to extrapolate through the rest of 2008… especially considering the emerging slowdown?

I would be hesitant to use the launch sales rate of 1 million every 3 days, but since we are still launching in new markets I would think the sales for the next qtr will be pretty good   With the launch in Russia on Oct 2 and China through Hong Kong, I think Apples next qtrs sales will be fine.

and now watch us tank even more

(not a good morning for my portfolio)

Fortune   is covering the story too… I wish HLTR over on the IV AAPL Sanity board was receiving a little more credit for creating and maintaining the spreadsheet in the first place though…