[quote author=“kiwitrader”][quote author=“willrob”]If we get pinned in the 90s today, closing in the red. What are the odds that investors will climb back on board on Monday when AAPL has a known history (at least this year) of dropping after earnings, despite record breaking revenue? I think I’d find a better entry point on Tuesday after hours or Wednesday morning. But since my typical buying/selling behavior (as I’ve reported in the past) usually proves to be the opposite of what the market does.

I seriously doubt we’ll get pinned in the 90’s today. But, JMHO, unless you are willing to suck up the drop on Tues. AH or are only putting on half or less here today, there’s no reason to get involved until the earnings report and guidance comes out. But again, that’s just my stubborn gut feelings. Been burned very hard and am playing things a little less emotionally with aapl while I still can. 

Today into Tues. is strictly a trade for me on aapl.

I have to confess, I went all cash yesterday and plan to wait on the sidelines until Wednesday. 

[quote author=“litespeed”][quote author=“iBill”]Great way to start the day. Is that due to the president’s speech? Thanks W, don’t you know we just want you to shut up and go away?

He’s like a bad drunk that never knows when to leave the party. 

Had nothing to do with the speech. Housing starts started the slide and gave traders the excuse to take profits from yesterday’s rally. Not a surprise.

That along with the speech, for certain drove things down. Even the pundits (not Cramer) on the shows last night literally said, “Maybe the Gov. should go short with some of the tarp money right before the speech in the morning. That is always a sure bet.” the media is totally on board with willing the market down each time one of the 3 wise-guys speak publicly.  things are definately starting to improve though so the hangover should wear off soon. 

From today’s NY Times:

OP-ED CONTRIBUTOR
Buy American. I Am.
By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Published: October 16, 2008
Omaha

THE financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.

So ... I?ve been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I?m talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.

Why?

A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation?s many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.

Let me be clear on one point: I can?t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven?t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month ? or a year ? from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.

A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor?s best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America?s future at a marked-down price.

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.

You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.

Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn?t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.

Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky?s advice: ?I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.?

I don?t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I?ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: ?Put your mouth where your money was.? Today my money and my mouth both say equities.

Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.

The S&P long ETF that I bought yesterday has been holding strong and steady since the open, this tells me (take that FWIW ) that what’s going on with aapl off the open is just OE shenanigans. It is going to break out anytime now over $100. S&P about to go positive. If ebay is positive, and GOOG is up $20, we’re just waiting in the que.

GOOG was at $390 last night, so it’s price has taken a $18 hit this a.m. That is, if you think of after hours prices as being real and not a false bubble.

Anyone else notice a phantom tick at $91.74?

Don’t see it on Ameritrade.

Doubled down at $97.93. My PM trade was a little impetuous and sloppy, I admit. But last night AH when GOOG reported I put an order in for +.50 above the closing price. That didn’t take, never even close. So when I woke up and saw I could get it .50 below the close, I jumped on it.

Now I can average in the middle.   

[quote author=“kiwitrader”]Doubled down at $97.93. My PM trade was a little impetuous and sloppy, I admit. But last night AH when GOOG reported I put an order in for +.50 above the closing price. That didn’t take, never even close. So when I woke up and saw I could get it .50 below the close, I jumped on it.

Now I can average in the middle.   

GL kiwi. Fingers crossed it will pan out. IMO, we will close above 100 today, even if we do see 92 today.

Why is resistance 100 all of a sudden? 

Update of the daily chart I’ve been posting recently, if anyone’s wondering why AAPL’s stuck here for the moment.. could see a huge breakout from here all the way up to $120, or if the markets tank next week and the downtrend pierces the $98/99 S/R level then a re-test of the lows.

I hope it hits that 120 before Tuesday’s close…

Thanks for the (bearish) update. 

I’m going with the breakout camp. The SSO (long S&P ETF) is green and steady. The Inverse ETF of that one and the inverse financial ETF are both red (were green earlier). All this adds us up IMHO, to aapl just being stuck in the OE mud for the moment and when it breaks out the whole market will rally. They’re really trying hard ATM.

Edit: For the options experts round here: Could it be we just need a strong push above $100 to break out of the strike price and then we take off?

Bounced of of 100 8 times in 20 seconds. IMO, if we pierce it, we move fast.