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AAPL Intraday Updates
Posted: 17 October 2008 08:41 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 61 ]
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[quote author=“Hamourabi”]

But why is AAPL so different from the rest of the market? 4.5% down relative to the NAS :x

Is it possible that hedge fund sell huge amount of AAPL to buy call options on AAPL?

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Posted: 17 October 2008 08:41 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 62 ]
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Mojo’s kicking in. I’ll bet if we can continue this breakout above 980 on the S&P, things will really hit the fan. One direction or the other. We could close above 1000! I’ll bet that spells at least a $105 for aapl. Then again, I’ll take anything green on aapl for the close.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 09:00 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 63 ]
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[quote author=“kiwitrader”]Mojo’s kicking in. I’ll bet if we can continue this breakout above 980 on the S&P, things will really hit the fan. One direction or the other. We could close above 1000! I’ll bet that spells at least a $105 for aapl. Then again, I’ll take anything green on aapl for the close.

It looked like we had something nice going on, but then it petered out.  S&P still hovering at 975, so maybe its just a temporary pullback before the push to 1000?

Remember that crazy rally last Friday afternoon?!?  What were the conditions that caused that ... and could we be in for a repeat today? (Hoping!!)  smile

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Posted: 17 October 2008 09:03 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 64 ]
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[quote author=“Hamourabi”][quote author=“Hamourabi”]

But why is AAPL so different from the rest of the market? 4.5% down relative to the NAS :x

Is it possible that hedge fund sell huge amount of AAPL to buy call options on AAPL?

Common strategy used by funds.  Is called call replacement.  If you’re afraid of unfavorable earnings behavior but believe would recover after that, call replacement is a good strategy.  You risk about 10% and keep 90% standby.  If sell the news, buy back AAPL after decline stabilizes.  If rally, just relax and wait for calls to be parity or near OE ... exercise or sell depending on outlook.  An equivalent strategy is buy puts.  However, if you’re on margin, better to use call replacement.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 09:16 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 65 ]
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Looking more and more like pinning to $100.  But hard to tell since AAPL seems to following the indices for the most part.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 09:28 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 66 ]
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[quote author=“Hamourabi”][quote author=“Hamourabi”]

But why is AAPL so different from the rest of the market? 4.5% down relative to the NAS :x

Is it possible that hedge fund sell huge amount of AAPL to buy call options on AAPL?

In the PM I wasn’t able to short. I still am not as there isn’t any available to borrow from Thinkorswim. Clearly whoever scooped it all was intending to use it as is evidenced by the price.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 09:48 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 67 ]
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[quote author=“Hamourabi”][quote author=“donahchoo”][

I think he’s saying that there’s a lot of resistance at 100.

Is that because of consumer sentiment being down?

Is it because of some one trying to keep AAPL below 100 for OE?

Is it because a lot of people bought at 85 and are selling to take profits?

All are possible.

But why is AAPL so different from the rest of the market? 4.5% down relative to the NAS :x

Apple is a cherished, momentum equity that everybody loves to trade and hold.

As such there are in my view several reasons why Apple is screaming sideways to down:

Retail:
Yesterday when I went to short in the morning when the stock was around $99 I had less than 10,000 available shares. By the end of the day, I had over 50,000 available shares to short. This suggests everybody and their dog too bought on margin and now, perhaps those margin buyers are deleveraging by selling.

Institutions:
Institutions continue their deleveraging and even though institutional deleveraging pressure has slowed, it still hasn’t stopped. Think about how many banks and funds own AAPL. By way of homework assignment, Mayer Quimby suggested one may want to look at the top 100 shareholders and then look at their other holdings to figure out who is selling.

For example, enter AAPL into the following page at the ticker symbol box.

http://www.fatpitch.biz/cgi-bin/f.cgi/psp/

and then click on top owners and begin exploring each of those firms.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 09:56 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 68 ]
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[quote author=“wheeles”][quote author=“Hamourabi”][quote author=“Hamourabi”]

But why is AAPL so different from the rest of the market? 4.5% down relative to the NAS :x

Is it possible that hedge fund sell huge amount of AAPL to buy call options on AAPL?

In the PM I wasn’t able to short. I still am not as there isn’t any available to borrow from Thinkorswim. Clearly whoever scooped it all was intending to use it as is evidenced by the price.

Ditto - Still can’t short AAPL on TOS. Yesterday it wasn’t a problem.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 10:01 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 69 ]
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[quote author=“Plato”]Ditto - Still can’t short AAPL on TOS. Yesterday it wasn’t a problem.

Does this shortage have anything to do with OE and covering puts? Turning puts into short positions? I’m not an options literate so please excuse me if this is a dumb question.  razz

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Posted: 17 October 2008 10:02 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 70 ]
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[quote author=“Plato”][quote author=“wheeles”][quote author=“Hamourabi”][quote author=“Hamourabi”]

But why is AAPL so different from the rest of the market? 4.5% down relative to the NAS :x

Is it possible that hedge fund sell huge amount of AAPL to buy call options on AAPL?

In the PM I wasn’t able to short. I still am not as there isn’t any available to borrow from Thinkorswim. Clearly whoever scooped it all was intending to use it as is evidenced by the price.

Ditto - Still can’t short AAPL on TOS. Yesterday it wasn’t a problem.

Fidelity lists 10000+ shortable….  Maybe just a TOS issue.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 10:19 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 71 ]
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[quote author=“kiwitrader”][quote author=“Plato”]Ditto - Still can’t short AAPL on TOS. Yesterday it wasn’t a problem.Does this shortage have anything to do with OE and covering puts? Turning puts into short positions? I’m not an options literate so please excuse me if this is a dumb question.  razz

I don’t think so - other brokers have AAPL available to be borrowed for shorting. Nor sure why TOS has this issue lately - I experienced it now several times over the past 3 weeks or so.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 10:19 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 72 ]
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[quote author=“Eric Landstrom”] ... Institutions:
Institutions continue their deleveraging and even though institutional deleveraging pressure has slowed, it still hasn’t stopped. Think about how many banks and funds own AAPL. By way of homework assignment, Mayer Quimby suggested one may want to look at the top 100 shareholders and then look at their other holdings to figure out who is selling.

For example, enter AAPL into the following page at the ticker symbol box.

http://www.fatpitch.biz/cgi-bin/f.cgi/psp/

and then click on top owners and begin exploring each of those firms.

Btw, do you think leverage would be reduced from 1 for 30 back to 1 for 15 as part of the financial restructuring?  If so, expect de-leveraging to continue for a long while.  Correspondingly, stock market would be trading with a downward bias ... too much selling pressure.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 10:40 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 73 ]
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[quote author=“Mace”][quote author=“Eric Landstrom”] ... Institutions:
Institutions continue their deleveraging and even though institutional deleveraging pressure has slowed, it still hasn’t stopped. Think about how many banks and funds own AAPL. By way of homework assignment, Mayer Quimby suggested one may want to look at the top 100 shareholders and then look at their other holdings to figure out who is selling.

For example, enter AAPL into the following page at the ticker symbol box.

http://www.fatpitch.biz/cgi-bin/f.cgi/psp/

and then click on top owners and begin exploring each of those firms.

Btw, do you think leverage would be reduced from 1 for 30 back to 1 for 15 as part of the financial restructuring?  If so, expect de-leveraging to continue for a long while.  Correspondingly, stock market would be trading with a downward bias ... too much selling pressure.

FWIW, CNBC mentioned yesterday and today that most hedge funds are now sitting on 60-80% cash. This may mean a lot of the de-leveraging has already taken place. The less dramatic sell-offs (300-400 points)we have at the end of the day will be the tell…

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Posted: 17 October 2008 10:42 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 74 ]
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Everyone:

Think for a moment of what investment vehicles might deliver a better ROI over the next year than equities. I don’t see one. While downside pressure continues (and the more pressure now the better), the more dramatic the recovery in the coming months.

The major market indexes are fairly accurate leading economic indicators and the anticipated economic slow down is already baked into prices. The equity markets should respond positively six to nine months ahead of the eventual return to sequential economic growth.

I’m looking to where I see things six to nine months from now, not at what the headlines are delivering today. I’m looking to where I see consumer and enterprise spending heading, not where it’s been and not where it is today. Looking six to nine months out, I see opportunities and quality stocks selling at distress prices against near-term prospects.

I’m staying with equities and I believe what might be lost from now is far less than what might be gained within twelve months.

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Posted: 17 October 2008 10:48 AM [ Ignore ] [ # 75 ]
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Point taken DT, but this being the intraday thread, some of us here like to think about what may happen today, tomorrow, and next week.  big grin

As an aapl long in my IRA, I completely agree with your sentiment.

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