AAPL News Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 02 November 2008 09:26 AM #46

    [quote author=“Mace”][quote author=“quantman”][quote author=“willrob”]Here re two timely article on the redemtion issue:

    Hedge Fund Redemption Cycle Just Beginning

    Hedge funds working to limit redemptions

    The first article is “timely”? It has print date of 2 weeks ago!

    quantman,

    You said hedge funds have 50%-60% cash.  Hence, it is likely that hfs has anticipated these redemptions and raised cash for it.  These type of articles ain’t complete unless they reconcile with the 50%-60% cash position.  Hfs are supposed to be nimble, articles imply they are passive and slow. Moreover, how can $43 billion redemption in Sep tumble the market by so much?

    Mace,

    I agree a lot of hedge redemptions have already happened. These kinds of articles are usually, largely after the fact kind of articles, and I think this is mostly 2-3 week old news.

    However, I am hearing that the whole currency debacle and emerging market problems are still an open issue for hedge funds. The recent hat in hand walk by the UK PM to the Middle East kingdoms, seeking 100’s of billions of $ for the IMF has me wondering.

    Also, I have yet to hear about the impact of those hedge funds who lost a heck of a lot last week, from being short VW in Germany. Perhaps these guys were also shorts on the US and Euro indices, and having lost on VW, had to cover their US and European index shorts. I have no info on this, but just wondering aloud.

    In any event, we will find out this week. IF the markets rally Tues PM and the rest of the week, then I think it would be fair to say that the bottom has been put in. I will wait until Tue Pm/Wed.

         
  • Posted: 02 November 2008 11:00 AM #47

    I think panic selling by US retail investors has been exhausted and hedge fund managers know there are few profit opportunities outside of equities.

    There will be plenty of good equity opportunities with stocks both cheap and consolidations and acquisitions apt reduce equity paper outstanding.

         
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    Posted: 03 November 2008 08:36 AM #48

    Didn’t see this posted on the forums, there is a report that Apple has cut iPhone production levels substantially for calendar Q4.

         
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    Posted: 03 November 2008 10:08 AM #49

    Yet another hedge fund story

    Here’s a somewhat more timely (published today) piece on the implications of hedge-fund redemptions (or outright failures).  Though it doesn’t necessarily present anything new.

     

    The article cites Goldman Sachs as listing AAPL and GOOG, amongst others, as major hedge-fund holdings.  Probably not a surprise to most of us.

    I think it may be important to keep in mind that, if a hedge fund decides to close its doors, even if they have a lot of cash already, won’t they have to liquidate almost all their equities to redeem their ‘limited partners’ (ie investors) with cash?  Everyone seems to be pronouncing death sentences on a significant portion (say, 25 per cent or more) of the hedge funds out there.  When they start keeling over, wouldn’t there be another big wave of selling?

    Read somewhere else (can’t find it at the moment) to expect 15 November as a date round which we should see a lot more hedge-fund selling, as ‘limited partners’ have to inform the fund managers 45 days in advance if they wish to redeem at end of year.  Does this sound accurate to anyone?

    I think we all expect the funds that survive to invest heavily in AAPL as an undervalued equity eventually.  But will the rest of the year yield mostly downward pressure from massive hedge-fund redemptions?

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    Posted: 03 November 2008 11:07 AM #50

    Annoying articles on hedge funds

    There are many contradictions in all those “opportunistic” articles about hedge funds.  MF’s article is outdated.  It has been mentioned that AAPL got hammered so badly during Sep and early Oct is because AAPL is the largest holdings of most hedge funds.  In addition, if those articles are right, hedge funds should have sold out of AAPL by now (they sell higher priced stocks first).  50%-60% cash hoard suggests that hedge funds is ready to deal with redemptions in coming quarter.

    If I’m a hedge fund manager, upon detection of deteriorating market conditions, I would buy a bunch of puts before selling out those stocks that have logged huge gains YTD.  This would lock in huge capital gains + additional gain from puts, remember I’m paid 1% asset/20% profit.  Current upward bias could be due to closing of long puts position. Obviously, I don’t want market to rally while I’m closing the puts.  In addition, having make tons of money from 2003-2008, and the prospect of making good money is not good over the next few years, the best course of action is to close the funds and take a vacation.

    “opportunistic” because is a hot topic.

    Hussman Fund is not a hedge fund.  Nevertheless, is enlightening to note what it is doing ” ... Over the past few weeks, the improvement in market valuations has become so significant that we altered our hedges in the Strategic Growth Fund by covering our short position in index calls and lowering the strike prices of our put options. Presently, about 75% of the Fund’s portfolio remains hedged with out-of-the-money put options. These puts are there to hedge against any abrupt and deep continuation of recent market losses, which I don’t expect, but can’t rule out if only because of recent volatility ...”. 

    Hussman had booked huge profit in puts and spent a small sum on OTM puts.

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    Posted: 03 November 2008 03:35 PM #51

    Apple = Money Flow Leader

    NOVEMBER 3, 2008, 4:40 P.M. ET
    Apple, Microsoft: Money Flow Leaders (AAPL, MSFT)

    Apple Inc. topped the list in late trading on Monday for Buying on Weakness , which tracks stocks that fell in price but had the largest inflow of money. See the full list .

    Microsoft Corp. topped the list for Selling on Strength , which tracks stocks that rose in price but had the largest outflow of money. See the full list .

    Go to Markets Data Center (WSJMarkets.com) for complete coverage.

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    Posted: 03 November 2008 04:31 PM #52

    More aapl crap hoping to torpedo the stock - copied from IV

    And now Tobin Smith joins the bashing party.
    ChangeWave Survey Foretold Apple’s Earnings Call
    1 Comment - Join the discussion>>

    By Paul Carton
    October 28, 2008
    Steve Jobs must be keeping a close eye on our ChangeWave survey findings.

    In a highly unusual move, he participated in Apple earnings phone call last week to ensure investors that despite the economic slowdown there’s no reason to worry. And he did so even though Apple’s outlook going forward came in well below the Street’s expectations - exactly as our September ChangeWave survey had predicted.

    In the conference call, CFO Peter Oppenheimer estimated Apple’s sales would come in between $9-10 billion for the December quarter - well under the $10.7 billion that had been anticipated. He also said earnings per share would fall between $1.06 and $1.35 - also far less than the Street’s $1.67 consensus estimate.

    In our September PC spending survey of 4,262 consumers, we found Apple’s real problem wasn’t Mac sales over the previous 90 days - sales looked good. The problem was the outlook for Macs going forward.

    Moreover, our findings pointed to a big turn for the worse in overall consumer spending just as the crucial holiday season was getting under way - with consumer electronics taking the biggest hit.

    Here was our ‘Bottom Line’ based upon the September ChangeWave survey findings:

    “While Apple’s guidance is normally conservative, we expect it to be much more so on Oct. 21, when it provides its Mac sales projections for the holiday season.”

    Bulls-eye.

    Note we also said that “Apple would meet its Mac sales numbers for the past 90 days.”

    They did.

    Apple sold a record 2.6 million Macs for the September quarter, up 21% from the year ago period. However looking back a quarter, the year over year growth rate for Macs was 41%, and two quarter’s ago it was an astounding 51%. So while Mac sales are continuing to do well, the actual year over year growth rate has slowed considerably.

    Our conservative outlook on Mac sales growth projections notwithstanding, we reiterated in September that “the company still has a tremendous long-term outlook.”

    “For example, our latest consumer cell phone survey shows that…among respondents planning to buy a new smart phone in the next 90 days, 34% say they’ll get an Apple iPhone - the highest level of smart phone demand in the industry…Based on our data, we fully expect Apple’s iPhone numbers will beat consensus estimates on October 21st.”

    Cut to the October 21st Apple earnings call, where the stellar news in the quarter turned out to be much better than anticipated iPhone sales. As Oppenheimer put it, Apple “sold nearly 6.9 million iPhones during the September quarter, exceeding the 6.1 million units shipped over the entire lifetime of the first generation iPhone.”

    We also note that Apple has already surpassed its long stated goal of selling 10 million iPhones for the year - something our ChangeWave surveys have predicted almost from day one.

    So Is Apple Really Vulnerable?

    Peter Oppenheimer characterized Apple’s reduced outlook as being “prudent” for these difficult economic times.

    Still, Apple felt the need to pull out its big gun.

    “We may get buffeted by the waves a bit, but we’ll be fine,” said Steve Jobs. “Apple just reported one of the best quarters in its history, with a spectacular performance by the iPhone—we sold more phones than RIM…We don’t yet know how this economic downturn will affect Apple. But we’re armed with the strongest product line in our history, the most talented employees and the best customers in our industry - and $25 billion of cash safely in the bank with zero debt.”

    Well said, Steve. But our ChangeWave surveys have clearly identified Apple’s biggest potential problem - Mac sales projections going forward.

    Mac visibility is the number one issue for the company and that’s where our survey results show Apple is most vulnerable - caught in the fierce headwinds of the accelerating economic downturn.

    Apple investors can expect a continued bumpy ride for the stock until consumers start spending again. But once the economy does start coming back, our ChangeWave surveys are clear about the long term outcome. Apple will continue to expand its already dominating lead over the rest of the consumer electronics industry.

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    Posted: 03 November 2008 04:44 PM #53

    [quote author=“runedge”]More aapl crap hoping to torpedo the stock - copied from IV

    . . .

    By Paul Carton
    October 28, 2008
    Steve Jobs must be keeping a close eye on our ChangeWave survey findings.

    . . .

    Whatever.  rolleyes

    Longterm, AAPL will do just fine. Short-term, AAPL will bounce around just as much as it always has.  Now, if ChangeWave surveys are so good about predicting the future, why don’t they take a survey and tell us when the recession will end.  :wink:

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    Posted: 03 November 2008 06:04 PM #54

    The FBR report is getting traction - another post from IV - basically some “chick” runs the same story but makes it look like she too is calling softness in product demand due to the “recession.”

    The economic slowdown has finally trickled up to Apple’s gadget-buying faithful


    Weak iPhone Forecast Proves Apple Inc. Isn’t Recession-Proof
    by Elizabeth Harrow (.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address))  11/3/2008 1:40 PM
    Analysts at Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. (FBR) have revised their estimate for iPhone production in the fourth quarter, and the results aren’t pretty. Previously, FBR estimated that Apple Inc. ( AAPL: sentiment, chart, options) would experience a sequential 10% drop in smartphone production during the quarter. Today, the brokerage firm said that its most recent checks indicate a significantly sharper 40% plunge could be in the cards.
    In a note to clients, FBR noted that a number of iPhone-parts suppliers could also be impacted. Marvell Technologies (MRVL) could lose $10 million in revenue, Broadcom (BRCM) could sacrifice $12 million in sales, and Linear Technology (LLTC) could be looking at a $5-million revenue shortfall.
    Friedman said that slipping iPhone production “suggests that the global macroeconomic weakness is impacting even high-end consumers, those that are more likely to buy Apple’s expensive gadgets.” The firm added, “No market segment will be spared in this global downturn.”
    In afternoon trading, AAPL is more than 1% higher despite FBR’s warning of iPhone weakness. The tech-sector heavyweight has recently kept pace with action in the broader U.S. equities market, which could explain today’s mild gains.
    However, Apple shares are facing a serious technical hurdle on the charts, which could limit potential upside. Round-number resistance from the 110 level looms directly overhead; the stock hasn’t surmounted this region on a weekly closing basis since late September. In the weeks since, this level has acted as a ceiling for all of the equity’s rally attempts. As the stock’s 10-week moving average descends into the region, resistance here will likely be augmented.


    In fact, AAPL spent the entire month of October bouncing between the 90 and 110 levels. A rejection at the upper end of this trading range could send the shares dropping back into double-digit territory.
    Meanwhile, the significance of the 110 strike hasn’t been lost on option traders. The stock’s November 110 call has 21,789 contracts in residence, and another 14,112 contracts have crossed the tape at this strike so far today. This call is by far the most popular AAPL option today, and the heavy attention being paid to this strike indicates that many investors are expecting the shares to climb back atop this level by the end of the month.
    Overall, the market’s indifferent reaction to the drastically slashed iPhone production figures is troubling. It seems clear by now that Apple is not immune to the economic downturn, and today’s note from FBR only serves to reinforce that point. With fundamental and technical challenges looming on the horizon—and investors maintaining a stubbornly upbeat stance—it looks like AAPL may continue to struggle in the short term.
    Did you know you can check out my latest SR.com headlines just by visiting your inbox? To sign up for our email alert service, simply click here and sign in with your Schaeffer’s username and password. On the alerts page, select “author” from the first drop-down box, choose your e-mail alert frequency, and type “Elizabeth Harrow” into the third box.

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    Posted: 04 November 2008 08:15 AM #55

    iPhone Subsidy Hits SingTel Earnings

    iPhone Subsidy Hits SingTel Earnings
    By Dianne See Morrison - Tue 04 Nov 2008 08:03 AM PST
    First, the good news: SingTel reported in a filing to the Singaporean exchange today that it had sold 170,000 iPhones since launching the handset in early July in Australia, and Singapore, the Philippines and India in late August. In Singapore, where SingTel is the iPhone?s exclusive carrier, approximately 30 percent of the gadget?s buyers were new customers. In Australia, where Optus competes with Telstra and Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) to offer the iPhone, 55 percent of the carrier?s total activations were from new subscribers. SingTel estimates that Optus accounted for the majority share of iPhone 3G sales in Australia.

    Now the bad news, subsidizing the iPhone has come at a cos. In Singapore iPhone 3G activations reduced EBITDA by $27 million Singaporean dollars ($18 million) in Singapore, and $44 million Australian dollars ($30.8 million) in Australia. Still, SingTel said it was ?confident? that its strategy of ?expanding and acquiring high value data-centric 3G subscribers is value accretive?. It reported that ?early indications? show that ARPU rates for iPhone 3G users were 1.5 times as high as the overall postpaid subscriber base. No specifics on how SingTel and the iPhone are faring in the Indian market, where SingTel has a 30.4 percent stake in carrier Bharti (Release).

         
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    Posted: 04 November 2008 09:27 AM #56

    this from business week:

    Apple: Soon to Be a Mobile Gaming Force
    Watch out, Sony and Nintendo; overnight, the maker of the iPhone is making a mark on the handheld gaming industry

    “I didn’t expect much from games on the iPhone. I had visions of casual games, perhaps a fancy take on solitaire or a version of poker that takes advantage of the handset’s touchscreen. Surely not a true mobile gaming experience.

    Boy, was I wrong. For the last few days I’ve been sampling some of the games available from the iTunes Store on the iPod Touch, and I’ve been stunned at how elaborate and involved they are. On the iPod Touch I’ve played a version of Gameloft’s Real Soccer 2009 that rivals the version of the game on the Nintendo DS, and I didn’t even miss the buttons. I’ve seen demonstrations of Sim City, forthcoming for the iPhone and the Touch from Electronic Arts (ERTS), that look more elaborate and sophisticated than any versions I’ve played before on a desktop PC or console.

    They’re immersive, addictive fun. And it’s now readily apparent to me that the iPhone and iPod Touch are well on their way to becoming an important force in handheld gaming. When you consider the ease and reach of Apple’s (AAPL) online method for distributing games, Apple could do in this category what it did in online music, causing big headaches for the genre’s established players, Sony (SNE) and Nintendo.

    Apple’s come a long way in short order. In the three months and change since the iTunes App Store opened for business, it’s already home to some 1,500 games, compared with fewer than 300 titles for Sony’s PlayStation Portable and about 600 for Nintendo’s handheld console, the DS.”

    full read here:
    http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/nov2008/tc2008113_963033.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

    sounds good to me.
    :wink:  :wink:

         
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    Posted: 04 November 2008 08:30 PM #57

    Interesting articles.

    A couple of relevant articles. More fuel for a rosy future.

    Why Apple Could Make iPhone Chips

    Apple’s Secret Weapon   - Falling flash memory prices

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  • Posted: 04 November 2008 09:37 PM #58

    A bit of FUD to add to the mix.

    http://www.crn.com/hardware/212000486

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  • Posted: 05 November 2008 04:43 AM #59

    Not too significant, but the planned flagship store in NYC has been placed in dry dock.

         
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    Posted: 05 November 2008 04:55 AM #60

    [quote author=“willrob”]Not too significant, but the planned flagship store in NYC has been placed in dry dock.

    Sounds like it was the right move.

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