Apple uPod history.
An updated table of Apple’s guidance and performance:
A few notes:
1: calculations may not be consistent due to rounding.
2: EPS for 2009q1 are my calculations by using the mid-point in the range supplied by Apple.
3: I haven’t made any estimates for 2009q1 yet.
A few observations:
1: EPS uPodding has been toned down in F2008 to an average of 23% from an average of 52% in F2007.
2: Apple guided at most $1.35 EPS for 2009q1. If it beats that estimate by 25%, the most recent uPod, EPS will be $1.69, in line with analyst estimates.
We live in interesting times.
FWIW, these are all pretty obsolete now, with the rise in percentage of sales subject to “Subscription Accounting” at almost 40% the amount shown doesn’t even come close to providing meaningful information on how well the company is doing.
For example, this past QTR showed EPS of $1.26
When they were “really” $2.69 only they banked the actual money, and will slowly trickle it out and show it as “earned” at the rate of 1/8th per quarter.
That means they “actually” “made” “banked” over 144% *MORE THAN* that which was shown and reported.
I believe we REALLY need to pound this one home, everywhere, here and there, to try and jumpstart a few sleeping brains out there as to the reality of what massive increases AAPL is now achieving in YOY sales and profits.
“Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition
[quote author=“TanToday”]FWIW, these are all pretty obsolete now, with the rise in percentage of sales subject to “Subscription Accounting” at almost 40% the amount shown doesn’t even come close to providing meaningful information on how well the company is doing.
You are correct, but this is a chart of Apple’s guidance versus Apple’s actual results and a measure of managing expectations. I am quite sure that management knows very well the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP reporting.
Let’s try to keep responses within the theme of the thread title, no matter how valid they may be.
Recall subscription accounting has a negative impact on first few quarters’ eps because sales and admin costs are not deferred. This together with “foggy holiday season” justifies “lot of prudence”. uPod of 25% is too low. 30%-50% is better.
Hence, GAAP eps could be between $1.76 to $2.12.
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