Apple uPod history.

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    Posted: 23 October 2008 04:36 AM

    An updated table of Apple’s guidance and performance:

    A few notes:
    1: calculations may not be consistent due to rounding.
    2: EPS for 2009q1 are my calculations by using the mid-point in the range supplied by Apple.
    3: I haven’t made any estimates for 2009q1 yet.

    A few observations:
    1: EPS uPodding has been toned down in F2008 to an average of 23% from an average of 52% in F2007.
    2: Apple guided at most $1.35 EPS for 2009q1. If it beats that estimate by 25%, the most recent uPod, EPS will be $1.69, in line with analyst estimates.

    We live in interesting times.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 23 October 2008 05:33 AM #1

    FWIW, these are all pretty obsolete now, with the rise in percentage of sales subject to “Subscription Accounting” at almost 40% the amount shown doesn’t even come close to providing meaningful information on how well the company is doing.

    For example, this past QTR showed EPS of $1.26

    When they were “really” $2.69 only they banked the actual money, and will slowly trickle it out and show it as “earned” at the rate of 1/8th per quarter.

    That means they “actually” “made” “banked” over 144% *MORE THAN* that which was shown and reported.

    I believe we REALLY need to pound this one home, everywhere, here and there, to try and jumpstart a few sleeping brains out there as to the reality of what massive increases AAPL is now achieving in YOY sales and profits.

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    Posted: 23 October 2008 05:46 AM #2

    [quote author=“TanToday”]FWIW, these are all pretty obsolete now, with the rise in percentage of sales subject to “Subscription Accounting” at almost 40% the amount shown doesn’t even come close to providing meaningful information on how well the company is doing.

    You are correct, but this is a chart of Apple’s guidance versus Apple’s actual results and a measure of managing expectations. I am quite sure that management knows very well the difference between GAAP and non-GAAP reporting.
    Let’s try to keep responses within the theme of the thread title, no matter how valid they may be.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 23 October 2008 06:08 AM #3

    awacabot,

    Recall subscription accounting has a negative impact on first few quarters’ eps because sales and admin costs are not deferred. This together with “foggy holiday season” justifies “lot of prudence”.  uPod of 25% is too low. 30%-50% is better.

    Hence, GAAP eps could be between $1.76 to $2.12.

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