Thoughts? Concerns? I think RIMM’s warning is potentially negative for Apple. If RIMM’s warning is a result of (1) massive competition from Apple and (2) the recent product transitions to the Storm, then it might even positive. Yet, if the warning is really the result of a major slowdown in corporate IT and consumer spending, then it doesn’t really bode that well for Apple. The bitch about this situation is that there’s really no way to tell. The iPhone could have picked up steam this quarter, RIMM could have simply underestimated the impact that the product transition would have on its sales, or the economy can be taking a major toll on sales. Maybe its a combination of all three. What I do know is: A warning from RIMM at least raises the concern that the economy is taking a larger than expected toll on the smart phone market. Then again, RIMM has missed in the past, and so it can be the result of management simply being overly aggressive. Time will tell.
...The bitch about this situation is that there’s really no way to tell….Time will tell.
My thoughts as well. I will wait until Gartner comes out with it’s (two month late and erroneus) smart-phone market press release, and Nokia’s and Apple’s earnings reports. I am already nerve-wracked by the latest gyrations of the stock market—I am not going to add new reasons.
Thoughts? Concerns? I think RIMM’s warning is potentially negative for Apple. If RIMM’s warning is a result of (1) massive competition from Apple and (2) the recent product transitions to the Storm, then it might even positive. Yet, if the warning is really the result of a major slowdown in corporate IT and consumer spending, then it doesn’t really bode that well for Apple. The bitch about this situation is that there’s really no way to tell. The iPhone could have picked up steam this quarter, RIMM could have simply underestimated the impact that the product transition would have on its sales, or the economy can be taking a major toll on sales. Maybe its a combination of all three. What I do know is: A warning from RIMM at least raises the concern that the economy is taking a larger than expected toll on the smart phone market. Then again, RIMM has missed in the past, and so it can be the result of management simply being overly aggressive. Time will tell.
Andy I think this will hurt Apple stock short term, but as far as Apple qtr, all the analyst numbers have come down. The consensus EPS estimate is sitting at 1.43 vs 1.76 last year so the analyst are factoring in negative growth. We all know via subscription accounting that the Iphone revenue/earnings will show huge growth YOY because the sales are already booked from previous qtrs. In my mind I’m trying to determine how much MAC and Ipod sales will slow. Everything I read says the Mac sales growth is still showing YOY growth and IPOD sales are down a couple percent, this combined with increased Iphone revenue should provide a nice earnings surprise, but we have the rest of the Christmas season to keep the analyst worried. The problem with Apple stock is the rest of the market. Until the economy turns the corner, the multiple people are willing to pay for growth will not move up.
And when Apple posts a good set of #‘s for Christmas quarter and RIMM and Nokia and all the others are struggling with development and implementation costs in an effort to get something out the door to compete with the iPhone, then we will be deeper off into this worldwide slowdown and Apple will be trading in the eighties. I can’t get worked up over a “rally” to 108. These days are the pits. It will get better. But it most likely will get worse before it gets better.
Thoughts? Concerns? I think RIMM’s warning is potentially negative for Apple. If RIMM’s warning is a result of (1) massive competition from Apple and (2) the recent product transitions to the Storm, then it might even positive. Yet, if the warning is really the result of a major slowdown in corporate IT and consumer spending, then it doesn’t really bode that well for Apple. ...Time will tell.
First thoughts: RIMM has yet to really get a foothold in the consumer market. Sure there are consumers who use the Blackberry, but mostly it’s the business user. AAPL on the other hand is predominately consumer oriented, with only a toe dipped into the business market. While RIMM’s consumer share may not be growing, AAPL’s certainly is. And AAPL’s share of the business market is starting to grow as well, led by the iPhone and the MacBooks. So I’m not convinced, any more than I was last quarter, that RIMM’s poorer performance bodes ill for Apple.
First thoughts: RIMM has yet to really get a foothold in the consumer market. Sure there are consumers who use the Blackberry, but mostly it’s the business user. AAPL on the other hand is predominately consumer oriented, with only a toe dipped into the business market.
There are people like me in both camps, sort of. As an iPhone user I am a both a consumer and a businessman (albeit a nano businessman). My wife also has an iPhone, but for her it is as a consumer. Interestingly as a small businessman for years I did not have a smart phone until September of when we bought the iPhone 3Gs, my wife, the consumer, had a TREO 600 that was used more for email more than as a phone. When the TREO croaked we both got iPhones.
Anyway answer me this. Do big businesses, the enterprise, get deals on bulk purchases of BlackBerries? As far as I know Apple does not offer volume discounts. That may be factor in keeping Apple from getting further into big businesses.
As CNBC pointed out RIMM is levered to the financials. With every bank cutting payrol on their way to getting back in the black(ish), with every job cut there is likely one less Blackberry user. Meanwhile, worldwide, 6M iPhones are expected to be sold. Yet my concern is if Mac sales will continue to remain strong. My view, as I’ve shared before, is that the growth model we had earlier in the year needs a 30% haircut to properly reflect the economic downturn.
RIM (RIMM) warned it would not make its numbers for the current quarter. Some of that is due to the value of the dollar. The balance is because a weak economy is hurting demand for its Blackberry products.
RIMM said revenue for fiscal Q3 would be $2.75-$2.78 billion. Preliminary revenue is lower than its previously forecast of $2.95-$3.10 billion.
RIMM said it would add 2.6 million new subscribers in the period, down from a previous forecast of 2.9 million.
That news is probably not good for Apple (AAPL) and its new 3G iPhone.
Analysts are already revising estimates for sales of the super-phone Oppenheimer has cut its forecast to 4.8 million from 7.5 million. JP Morgan has taken its number down to 7.1 million. Look at the spread of estimates and it shows that no one seems to have a reasonable picture of how the device will do.
An evaluation of the new quarterly estimates from Palm (PALM), RIM, and Nokia (NOK) would support the notion that the iPhone, despite its tremendous appeal, will do badly and that Apple’s stock is ready for another big letdown.
Apple’s stock is already off from a 52-week high of nearly $203 to $92.47. But, analysts still expect EPS to be a relatively strong $1.43 a share. A big miss on iPhone sales could drop that by $.10 or more.
The miracle at Apple may be coming to an end, not because its products have lost their luster but because it appears no one is immune from a deepening recession.
i am not really worried for apple. I think rim did a stupid thing with the storm because its largest customer is business people are still not really sure about touch screens. And apple already has the hold on consumers. I have played with the blackberry and it is still not nearly as consumer friendly as the iphone. I think apple will continue to eat into the business market and i dont think rim will be abel to match that growth into the consumer market.
... I nominate Eric Landstrom as the head of the AFB Bears Fan Club.
In life, we always have Ying Yang. Who is head of the AFB Bulls Fan Club? Use to be Tommu_UK, currently AndyZaky appears to have taken over this title.
According to my freshman son, more than 50% of computers sighted in a lecture hall are MacBooks. Obviously, there are many iPod owners. The most important point is these kids don’t care about economic conditions much, they buy what they feel is cool and necessary. Apple is the choice brand ATM.
