... Mace, I don’t usually try to compute Cycle V targets using Fib. calculations—only Fib. retracements. I have developed a geometric projection method which is far more accurate at projecting the potential termination of the next wave ...
Please tell me more about your geometric projection method. Assuming Cycle IV is completed, what is the target for Cycle V using your method?
cramar - 05 December 2008 10:55 AM
... But you have to know if the current wave has indeed ended. Still unsure. 50-50 at this stage ...
Prefer to assume correct and make projections. Although if you keep posting them here, is confusing for the uninitiated readers since they may think you mean completed ... how come so many completions and targets ... they shouldn’t follow this thread if they don’t understand . Price targets are obvious to Elliotticians e.g. if one says is a wave one-two, obviously we mean the next wave is a wave three with length of wave three falls between 0.618 to 1.618 of length of wave one.
cramar - 05 December 2008 10:55 AM
... Prechter is adamant that some rules cannot be broken. Like 2nd cannot retrace below the start of 1, and 4 cannot fall into territory of 1 ...
You’ve misunderstood him. Wave four can be inside territory of wave two for leading and ending diagonals. Obviously, territory of wave two is inside territory of wave one.
Btw, don’t understand your comment that count is flat wrong. So many are said not sure which one are you referring to. Could be referring to your own count . Your primary 2 is lower than primary 1 ... verify yourself . Btw, I’ve worked out the counts (down to intermediate degrees) for the life cycle of AAPL since 1980s and can dig out my files to check any counts.
Repost the short-term EW for easy reference:
Short-term EW of AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret.
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $96.23. Length=$9.73.
(iii).[2]=$96.23 to $88.86, ret 75.7%, completed?
In (iii).[3] now?
Note: This type of threaded forum is troublesome for posting content that need updating. Always need to repost.
cramar,
To answer your question about superbaka’s post, that guy’s post is dated Dec 4, 2008. Read this. Obviously, you didn’t click on his link.
Repost the short-term EW for easy reference:
Short-term EW of AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret.
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $96.23. Length=$9.73.
(iii).[2]=$96.23 to $88.86, ret 75.7%, completed?
In (iii).[3] now?
Note: This type of threaded forum is troublesome for posting content that need updating. Always need to repost.
...
Seems (iii).[3], noted how volume was lower after $90.40?, same thing is ocurring after $91.08: 1-2-3.i since $88.86?... promising
BTW, I am following your long-term discussion closely, but I do not want to make noise while you think ..., no, seriously, very interesting.
... BTW, I am following your long-term discussion closely, but I do not want to make noise while you think ..., no, seriously, very interesting.
Most of the discussion contains no new information. The good thing is it forced me to read the EW bible “Mastering EW by Glenn Neely”. Every time I refer to it, I’m impressed with Glenn and realized I didn’t aware of many EW rules and guidelines. Disclosure: Still didn’t read the bible much ... how to force myself to read this book rigorously from page one to last page?
Meanwhile, AAPL is struggling inside the price zone of wave four (called it C.5.iv) of impulse $112.19 to $79.14 (hence is C.5). We need to clear above this price zone soon to have a shot at the next price zone, $112.19 to $104s (C.5.ii). Taking too long is ominous.
... Mace, I don’t usually try to compute Cycle V targets using Fib. calculations—only Fib. retracements. I have developed a geometric projection method which is far more accurate at projecting the potential termination of the next wave ...
Please tell me more about your geometric projection method. Assuming Cycle IV is completed, what is the target for Cycle V using your method?
I would prefer to keep the details secret. I will say that I cannot give you an exact projected termination of the next wave because unlike a fib calculation which is based on absolute numbers, it is a dynamic moving projection based on time and price coming into convergence. Hence it changes on a daily basis. You have to guess when the wave might reach the target or just wait until it gets there and then you know to reverse. This is similar to a trend channel. You cannot absolutely project when price will hit the channel again (you can guess), but you know it when it happens.
Mace - 05 December 2008 11:46 AM
cramar - 05 December 2008 10:55 AM
... But you have to know if the current wave has indeed ended. Still unsure. 50-50 at this stage ...
Prefer to assume correct and make projections. Although if you keep posting them here, is confusing for the uninitiated readers since they may think you mean completed ... how come so many completions and targets ... they shouldn’t follow this thread if they don’t understand . Price targets are obvious to Elliotticians e.g. if one says is a wave one-two, obviously we mean the next wave is a wave three with length of wave three falls between 0.618 to 1.618 of length of wave one.
Some Elliotticians like to assume the count is complete and make projections—and enter the market. Others are more cautious, and wait for confirmation. I have gotten burned with the first approach so many times to know that the second approach is safer.
Mace - 05 December 2008 11:46 AM
cramar - 05 December 2008 10:55 AM
... Prechter is adamant that some rules cannot be broken. Like 2nd cannot retrace below the start of 1, and 4 cannot fall into territory of 1 ...
You’ve misunderstood him. Wave four can be inside territory of wave two for leading and ending diagonals. Obviously, territory of wave two is inside territory of wave one.
Obviously I was referring only to a 5-wave impulse structure. Diagonals and triangles are 5 waves which do have overlapping waves.
“Obviously, territory of wave two is inside territory of wave one.” Yes obviously, but an example might clarify how powerful this rule can be to readers. I’ve seen this many times. You think a major down trend is completed, then you see a clear 5-wave sequence off the bottom. Hah! Wave (1) completed. You think the bottom is in and wait for a 3-wave correction knowing that wave (2) cannot take out the bottom of wave (1). When you see an a-b-c correction, that retraces part of wave (1) you enter the market (and if a futures place your stop below the beginning of wave one). The market rallies, but stalls and chops lower and lower taking out the beginning of wave (1) and your stop. You are wrong in your original analysis that the trend down had finished. It was not a wave (1) since (2) cannot retrace more than (1).
Mace - 05 December 2008 11:46 AM
Btw, don’t understand your comment that count is flat wrong. So many are said not sure which one are you referring to. Could be referring to your own count . Your primary 2 is lower than primary 1 ... verify yourself . Btw, I’ve worked out the counts (down to intermediate degrees) for the life cycle of AAPL since 1980s and can dig out my files to check any counts.
Was not referring to a specific “count,” but rather if anyone’s count violates certain EW rules the count is flat out wrong and they should revise so that it fits within the rules. My primary 2 is not lower than 1. You even posted the figures yourself.
Mace - 05 December 2008 11:46 AM
To answer your question about superbaka’s post, that guy’s post is dated Dec 4, 2008. Read this. Obviously, you didn’t click on his link.
Mace, I agree, too much time, today bull money is talking, volume can be high, what I want is see it above $92.5, the faster the better
edit:
Hey! I have to put more in my posts… go, baby, go!
Certainly need more from you. That’s the kind of price behavior I like ... feel like an extended impulse wave. Refer to this daily chart, let’s pray together for AAPL to break out of the blue zone (C.5.iv) towards red zone (C.5.ii). Doesn’t look good, losing momentum as it approaches $95.
cramar - An extract of my comment about origin of your Primary 1, “Oct 02’s price is about a dollar more” than Apr 16, 03’s $6.36.
Max pain (Dec)=$90.
Max pain (Jan)=$120.
Does this mean AAPL would trade towards $120 in Jan 09?
Short-term EW of AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret.
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $96.23. Length=$9.73.
(iii).[2]=$96.23 to $88.86, ret 75.7%, completed?
In (iii).[3] now? If Monday can break above $96.23, we have a good chance of stabbing $105. Holding above $90 on OE would be .
As I said past week, I am reading your posts closely, and it gives me the opportunity to think about EWT and TA again. Mace, excuse me to made your late count of my own and generate one chart, joining your maths with Volume, MACD and STO:
Weekly, from late Dec 02 to date, adding retracements, time periods (and %s) and absolute values for each wave. There are not conclusions here; I thought it as a common reference to discuss. Just to start the fire: Very interesting is how STO shows support before MACD crosses 0, and MACD bearish crossings are contracting over time… some kind of inertia. At this moment it could/should be important since it is happening once again from $85.89 (not $79.14 low). If you are not sure what I am talking about take a look at the STO shape just before $6.36. OC, zoom-in 12345 waves could be next step…
Short-term EW of AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret.
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $96.23. Length=$9.73.
(iii).[2]=$96.23 to $88.86, 75.7% ret.
In (iii).[3]. Target should be between $105-$112.
Dec 9, 10:10 am PST: Is $103.60 completion of (iii).[3] or (iii).[3].[iii]?
Max pain for Dec is $95, a higher target for AAPL to close above it on OE.
Dec 9, 12:36 am PST: Is $97 to $103.60, then to $99, a wave one-two pattern?
Please refer to daily chart of VIX, is $81.48 a truncated fifth wave or it is in a triangle?
Dec 9, 12:36 am PST: Is $97 to $103.60, then to $99, a wave one-two pattern?
Please refer to daily chart of VIX, is $81.48 a truncated fifth wave or it is in a triangle?
$103.60, then to $99 seems 12345 for wave a. Actually, at the 1 min. chart, 5th could be completed at the opening around $99s, because looks like ending diagonal. If right, today is time for b. If wrong $97s as alternate 5th for a.
About VIX: does not look like a triangle:
81.48 to 50.50 is impulse, and 1 or a
50.50 to 68.28, impulse
68.28 to 60.18, zigzag… or, better 68.28 to 60.21 d. zigzag
60.21 to 66.54, impulse, and we got 2 as abc, right?
66.54 to 56.37, impulse, 1st for 3
56.37 to in progress, w1 seems impulse, could it be for another abc, lower degree…
IMO, all this points to another abc for 3.ii, and the down pattern should keep on going during weeks
but, hey chinabox! what about 44.25 to 81.48?
is it an ending diagonal (again ) ?, this would mean down for weeks too, giving some calm to the markets. As both counts are compatible, I am confident. We can extract some conclusions here, but another HUGE flu (again ) makes my brain just a piece of meat, so excuse me to let you alone with the dialectical storm…
VIX: My optimistic read is VIX would decline to 45-50 forming a flat or descending triangle ... both are wave four patterns, before ramping towards 100 ... market goes lower after a bear rally. Btw, don’t assume a single wave reflected in daily chart is an impulse, you need to check the internal wave pattern using a hourly chart.
Short-term EW of AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret.
In (iii) or c. Targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $96.23. Length=$9.73.
(iii).[2]=$96.23 to $88.86, 75.7% ret.
(iii).[3]=$88.86 to $103.60. Length=$14.74, about 1.5 of (iii).[1].
(iii).[4]=$103.60 to ... not lower than $96.23. Breaking below mean this count is invalid. Breaking below could mean breaking down to $80 again.
(iii).[5]=(iii) or c, saying the obvious . Likely target is $105.
Daily chart of interest. To confirm a multi-month rally, we need an impulse i.e. (i)...(v) above $112.19, ideally above $116.40. Alternatively, a close above max pain on OE. Nine more days to go.
VIX: My optimistic read is VIX would decline to 45-50
...
Btw, don’t assume a single wave reflected in daily chart is an impulse, you need to check the internal wave pattern using a hourly chart.
\
Mace, my reading on VIX is with 10, 5 and 1 minute chart. Both agree it should go down, I see it as wave 3, probably into 3rd of 3
edit,
look at this: past Wednesday was $96.23 and today low is $96.50, that is not good…
... past Wednesday was $96.23 and today low is $96.50, that is not good…
Breaking below could mean breaking down to $80 again*. Consistent with Art Cashin’s view that S&P has to hold 884. 1-min, 5-min and hourly chart looks bullish. So let’s pray and worry more.
*Refer to daily chart, a valid abc has formed ($85 to $103.60). $96.23 is supposedly a wave one, AAPL declining below $96.23 would invalidate the wave one-two-three possibility, which mean AAPL is in either d of a descending wedge or C.v .
... past Wednesday was $96.23 and today low is $96.50, that is not good…
Breaking below could mean breaking down to $80 again*. Consistent with Art Cashin’s view that S&P has to hold 884. 1-min, 5-min and hourly chart looks bullish. So let’s pray and worry more.
*Refer to daily chart, a valid abc has formed ($85 to $103.60). $96.23 is supposedly a wave one, AAPL declining below $96.23 would invalidate the wave one-two-three possibility. That would mean AAPL would be in d of a descending wedge or c.v .
Sorry to ask what is probably a very basic question. But is a wave series of one-two-three good or bad? I assume waves in general can be good or bad.
Depends . I was referring to a bullish impulse sequence 12345. Wave 1, 3 and 5 are up. Wave 2 and 4 are down or sideways. After 123 is 4 down so is bad, but after 4 is 5 up so is good. But after completion of sequence 12345 is correction again, that is bad. Wave pattern occurs within wave pattern. Good or bad is relative to timeframe and whether you’re a long or short. For layman, is sufficient to know that if AAPL declines below $96.23, the possibility of it retesting $79 is high. And if it can clear above $112 or stay above $95 on OE friday, the possibility of AAPL rallying to at least $126 is high.
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. Price targets are obvious to Elliotticians e.g. if one says is a wave one-two, obviously we mean the next wave is a wave three with length of wave three falls between 0.618 to 1.618 of length of wave one.
. Your primary 2 is lower than primary 1 ... verify yourself 
. Btw, I’ve worked out the counts (down to intermediate degrees) for the life cycle of AAPL since 1980s and can dig out my files to check any counts.
..., no, seriously, very interesting.
.
) ?, this would mean down for weeks too, giving some calm to the markets. As both counts are compatible, I am confident. We can extract some conclusions here, but another HUGE flu (again 
) makes my brain just a piece of meat, so excuse me to let you alone with the dialectical storm…
.
. I was referring to a bullish impulse sequence 12345. Wave 1, 3 and 5 are up. Wave 2 and 4 are down or sideways. After 123 is 4 down so is bad, but after 4 is 5 up so is good. But after completion of sequence 12345 is correction again, that is bad. Wave pattern occurs within wave pattern. Good or bad is relative to timeframe and whether you’re a long or short. For layman, is sufficient to know that if AAPL declines below $96.23, the possibility of it retesting $79 is high. And if it can clear above $112 or stay above $95 on OE friday, the possibility of AAPL rallying to at least $126 is high.
