Zeke - 20 May 2009 02:52 PM

Mace,

I don’t know how this would play into the Elliott Wave theory, but I have mentioned before that I’ve noticed an approximate 9 month cycle of share price disasters for Apple.  It seems that about every 9 months there is a significant share price drop for one reason or another, sometimes for no reason at all.  The last one was 09/2008.  Before that was 01/2008, 04/2007 (admittedly small), and 07/2006.  If we extrapolate into the future the next one is 06/2009.  Does this fit any of the scenarios presented by Elliott Wave theory?

No idea.  Overwhelming calls for market to correct or has it started?  The good news is most think this is the last decline before a multi-year bull market.

chinabox,

Any view about this multi-day count?

xx.i.(1)=$119.38 to $124.62, length=$5.24.
xx.i.(2)=$124.62 to $121.57, ret=58%.
xx.i.(3)=$121.57 to $129.31, length=$7.74, 1.48 of i.(1).
xx.i.(4).(a)= $129.31 to $126.51
xx.i.(4).(b)=$126.51 to $129.21
xx.i.(4).(c)=$129.51 to $125.74
xx.i.(4).(d)=$125.74 to $127s
xx.i.(4).(e)=$127s to $125.30

xx.i.(5) in progress with target=$133.10 or thereabout.

Or you think it is fractal with price behavior during May-Jun, about to tumble big time ?

20-day EMA=$124.74, 13-week EMA=$116.16 and 52-week EMA=$118.27.
Max pain (Jun)=$130, max pain (Jul)=$100 and max pain (Oct)=$115.  Pay attention to changes in max pain (Oct).

Closed at $124.18, below 20-day EMA=$124.69, above 13-week EMA=$115.92 and 52-week EMA=$118.20.
Max pain (Jun)=$130, max pain (Jul)=$100 and max pain (Oct)=$115.  Monitor changes in max pain (Oct).

$133.50 to $119.38 till now appears to be tracing a corrective wave four.  Best fit is:
1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4 in progress.  Ret so far=27.6%.

Time to talk to myself again.

Closed at $133.05, above 20-day EMA, 13-week EMA and 52-week EMA. 
From weekly chart, 13-week EMA about to cross 52-week EMA, bullish .
From daily chart, PPO about to cross above signal, bullish .  +DI is above -DI, ADX poises to trend up, bullish .
Max pain (Jun)=$130, max pain (Jul)=$105 up $5 and max pain (Oct)=$115.

Since nobody challenge the best-fit, counting continues:
1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.97%.
5 in progress.  WAG target is $145.

After a LOT of troubles with my internet provider/conection…it seems OK right now (1:39 AM CET): HOPE I can update my counts tomorrow

chinabox - 28 May 2009 06:39 PM

After a LOT of troubles with my internet provider/conection…it seems OK right now (1:39 AM CET): HOPE I can update my counts tomorrow

Is your nation underneath a rock?

Max pain (Jun)=$130, max pain (Jul)=$110 up another $5 and max pain (Oct)=$115.

Even Patrick Star left me .

Closed at $143.74, above 20-day EMA, 13-week EMA and 52-week EMA.  Well done .

From weekly chart, 13-week EMA crossed 52-week EMA, late confirmation of multi-month rally.  That’s the problem with EMAs.  However, it also mean multi-month rally still have at least 30%-50% to go.

From daily chart, technicals clearly indicate trending up but RSI>70 means an impending correction.  I expect 20-day EMA, currently at $132.03, to hold.

Max pain (Jun)=$130, max pain (Jul)=$110 and max pain (Oct)=$120 up $5.00 .

Best-fit count:
1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.97%.
5=$144.18.  WAG was $145 but looking at intra-day chart, AAPL had completed an ED.  Hence, wave two has begun.
Targets of wave two:
23.6% ret=$128.10.
50% ret=$111.19.
I expect wave two (subdivided into ABC) to be shallow, likely to be completed at $128.10, above max pain (Oct) ... not a typo, use max pain (Oct) since it is higher than max pain (Jul).  Wave A would be completed around 14.6% ret i.e. $134.54, above max pain (Jun).  Btw, this would be a multi-week correction.

Rafiki,

Your sublety always cracks me up.  I do appreciate and read all your work of EW.

I don’t want to post anymore, I don’t want to bring the IQ of the board down with my posts.  The noise is getting way too smart for me here at AFB.

On April 2nd, Mace wrote:
    “norm for wave I (V.I) is $153.30 if extendend first wave.”  ...Perhaps?
We are approaching $146.53 AH, that would eliminate a wave four…leaves X or Wave V?

Sold most June calls today, they got as low as $.08 a few week ago.  I am still draggin QID, and an add on today brings me to 1000 shares.
I am left with 30 June 155’s, 100 July 175’s, and 1000 QID.  I guess Plato and I play it safe (or scared in my case).
I am hoping AAPL outperforms, I am dumping the June calls tomorrow and probably some July’s.  I am not sure how to play the July 175’s now.  I feel greedy.

Good luck to all, I will be expecting a wave II in the near future.

pieman - 04 June 2009 10:05 PM

Rafiki,

Your sublety always cracks me up.  I do appreciate and read all your work of EW.

I don’t want to post anymore, I don’t want to bring the IQ of the board down with my posts.  The noise is getting way too smart for me here at AFB.

On April 2nd, Mace wrote:
    “norm for wave I (V.I) is $153.30 if extendend first wave.”  ...Perhaps?
We are approaching $146.53 AH, that would eliminate a wave four…leaves X or Wave V?

Sold most June calls today, they got as low as $.08 a few week ago.  I am still draggin QID, and an add on today brings me to 1000 shares.
I am left with 30 June 155’s, 100 July 175’s, and 1000 QID.  I guess Plato and I play it safe (or scared in my case).
I am hoping AAPL outperforms, I am dumping the June calls tomorrow and probably some July’s.  I am not sure how to play the July 175’s now.  I feel greedy.

Good luck to all, I will be expecting a wave II in the near future.

You’re an aggressive option trader, always long so OTM calls.  I converted all Jun calls to butterfly 135/140/145 betting that AAPL would close at $140 on Jun 20.  Still holding Jul calls $125, $130 and $140, and Jan $130 ... considering unloading calls (Jul) $125 tomorrow.

You tracked me more than myself.  Definitely not wave four, should be either wave X or wave V.  Need to see how AAPL behaves when it approaches $170, and market conditions.  Still a lot of pot holes in the market.

Btw, which calls would you buy when wave two completes?  Time for me to learn how to make those 15x rather than 2x.

Mace,

No 15 baggers.  :(

If we do hit a probable wave III:

I will buy the far OTM calls because cheap to double down if timing not right or count is wrong.

Example, thinking I.V approaching and upcoming iphone/ Macworld, bought June 155’s -20@$.67, 20@$.52, 20@$.30, and 40 @$.16…they went as low as $.08…sold a few QID.
QID was the hedge if wrong.

Now up so dumping options, Buying QID to hedge decline, want to be wrong for my July 175’s….as long as market moves up or down, I’m OK I guess.

The more I look into my strategy and timing, I think I maybe patiently wait until II completes and confirm it with probable V.III.1., V.III.2, and beginning of probable V.III.3 and go big with a highly probable gamble 3 month OTM, 2 strikes $20 apart, low implied volatility.  Wave threes appear to be the biggies. Will think some more about this, timing might be less of an issue for III.3—(V.III.3 is better nomenclature I think?)

EW is strong right now, why rush if we know decline that could go to 99%(though not probable)?  Maybe I buy lightly OTM Aug at moving averages and scale up.

Please give me some thought on my July 175 dilemma, can only sell covered calls.  Will dump half/most if implied volatility rises above 48.
Any other strategies on these July 175’s besides sell some?

pieman - 05 June 2009 01:08 AM

... The more I look into my strategy and timing, I think I maybe patiently wait until II completes and confirm it with probable V.III.1., V.III.2, and beginning of probable V.III.3 and go big with a highly probable gamble 3 month OTM, 2 strikes $20 apart, low implied volatility.  Wave threes appear to be the biggies. Will think some more about this, timing might be less of an issue for III.3—(V.III.3 is better nomenclature I think?) ...

You want to go big during extended wave impulse.  Extension normally occur in wave three, hence when Elliotticians mention wave three is the best time to trade, they really mean extended wave.  You know is an extended wave impulse when volume support price and stochastics no longer work.  Referring to daily perspective, the rally in Apr is an extended wave impulse since price continues to advance despite RSI>70 most of the time.

As for calls (Jul) $175, I’m not au fait with OTM options.  If I want to be greedy and can afford to lose them all, I would hold till SJ return or end of Jun.

Mace,

Assuming best-fit count:

I infer that you are telling me that since we are approaching $153.30, wave I is the extended wave of waves I to V.  We only get one extended wave and may have had it in the first impulse.  A critical error would then be to plan on an extended wave III that does not occur.  Far out of the money calls may not be a wise play.
ITM calls may be a better option.

Meaning if wave one is an extended wave to $153.30, then wave III and V would not be longer than about $46.35 [(153.30 -78.20)/1.618].

I cannot find any EW information on why this wave I ($78.20 to present) is extended in your opinion if we continue.
1.  Why do you think this in you April 2 post? 
2.  How do you know beforehand without other wave (III and V) counts?
3.  How did you come up with $153.30?

I think your answer to the first two questions is your experience and instinct.  You stated supporting volume and stochastics that do not work.  That is valuable information to me if true.

Thanks.  I am not holding the numbers as absolute, it is just interesting to run them and predict a possible or probable outcome.

Mace - 02 April 2009 02:05 PM

Update for alice :

w1=$82.33 to $109.44 (length=$27.11)
w2.a=$109.44 to $103.86
w2.b=$103.86 to $109.98
w2.c=$109.98 to $102.61 (ret=25.2%)
w3.i=$102.61 to $107.45
w3.ii=$107.45 to $103.89
w3.iii in progress , norm target is 1.618 of w3.i=$111.72.  Next is 2.618 of w3.i=$116,56.
w3.iv ...
w3.v=$115.28 (norm).  Next is $119.36.

20-day EMA=$102.63, nice.  Max pain (Apr)=$100.  Max pain (May)=$105.

w4 is down.
w5=$126.19 if w1-w5 is an extended first wave.  Norm is $153.30.

pieman,

You’re referring to this post.  Note that origin of w1 is $82.33 not $78.20 and the first wave is extended i.e. extension over if true.  This impulse had completed at $133.50.  $133.50 to $$119.38 is a sharp zizag, which is normally a wave two pattern.  If not for $119.38 to $129.72 is an zigzag, I would continue this count instead of the best-fit count.  Having said that, I still monitor this count as if $119.38 to $129.72 is an impulse, which mean AAPL is in wave three of three , usually is an extended wave.  I always post the preferred though I keep counting those alternative counts.

Mace,

Thanks for the reply.  I think I understand.  Interesting post by Tommo regarding $150’s. 
Can you give your full count later in a future post?  I think it was switched up to collaborate with Chinabox.

I sold my June 155’s.  I am keeping the 100 July 175’s, but wrote 100 June 175 calls against them at $.14.  Figured it free money at worst.

Refer to this daily chart.  See the fractals?

Bigger fractal.
$78.20 (Jan) to $103 (Feb) is a zigzag.
$103 (Feb) to $82.33 (Mar) is an impulse.
$82.33 (Mar) to $133.50 is an impulse.

Smaller fractal from May to now.  You would need to examine the internal structure using a hourly chart.
$119.38 to $129.31 is a zigzag.
$129.31 to $121.75 is an impulse.
$121.75 to $146.40 is an impulse.

If the fractal similarity continues, AAPL would decline to $134-$138 next week.

Closed at $143.85, above 20-day EMA, 13-week EMA and 52-week EMA.

Max pain (Jun)=$135 up $5.00 , max pain (Jul)=$115 up $5.00 and max pain (Oct)=$120.

AAPL bounced off 10-day EMA, without declining into $134-$138 price range.  Correction over?  Rally resumed?  Are we getting a repeat of Jun-Dec 07 rally?  For those who didn’t notice, weekly volume support price for the past three weeks.  Looking at the daily chart, AAPL is poised to rally to $160 before a multi-week consolidation sets in.  With max pain (Jun) already $135, and OI of call (Jun) $150 about to overtake call (Jun) $140 as the highest OI call, AAPL is likely to close around $150 instead of $140 on Jun 20, as originally expected.

Edit:

pieman,

Because of the discovery of the fractals, adjusted preferred count is:

1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
5.i=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
5.ii=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
5.iii=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
5.iv=$146.40 to $139.43, ret=28.3%

5.v=$139.43 to:
v=i, $149.36
v=1.618 of i, $155.50
5=1, $144.18
5=1.618 of 1, $159.51.

Edit2:  Alternative count (previously known as best-fit count)is:
1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.
5=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
Now in wave two,
ret=23.6%, $130.30
ret=38.2%, $120.35
ret=61.8%, $104.25

Alternative count has fib numbers more consistent with EW.

In other words, if you’re long, you need to survive alternative.  If you’re short, you need to survive preferred.  Can you come up with such a strategy?