Mace - 08 June 2009 07:00 PM

Because of the discovery of the fractals, adjusted preferred count is:

1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
5.i=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
5.ii=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
5.iii=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
5.iv=$146.40 to $139.43, ret=28.3%

5.v=$139.43 to:
v=i, $149.36
v=1.618 of i, $155.50
5=1, $144.18
5=1.618 of 1, $159.51.

Edit2:  Alternative count (previously known as best-fit count)is:
1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.
5=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
Now in wave two,
ret=23.6%, $130.30
ret=38.2%, $120.35
ret=61.8%, $104.25

Alternative count has fib numbers more consistent with EW.

I can perfectly agree with both counts, so I will not update none at this moment… I just want to put another one on the table: $121.75 to $146.40 can contain 3 waves ($121.75-$134.98, $134.98-$132.03, $132.03-$146.40), so we have had five from $119.38. Let say this right: $146.40 to $138.45 can be: zigzag (and done), or 1-2-3 or 1-2-3.i. My point is we need to see it above $142s to keep going up. If AAPL can do that I bet for months of downside (I can not see it lateral until september)...

chinabox - 11 June 2009 11:19 AM

My point is we need to see it above $142s to keep going up. If AAPL can do that I bet for months of downside (I can not see it lateral until september)...

Sorry I’m not following this statement - so if we see it above $142, are you expecting it to “keep going up” or that there’ll be “months of downside”?

Lord Farkward - 11 June 2009 08:36 PM

chinabox - 11 June 2009 11:19 AM

My point is we need to see it above $142s to keep going up. If AAPL can do that I bet for months of downside (I can not see it lateral until september)...

Sorry I’m not following this statement - so if we see it above $142, are you expecting it to “keep going up” or that there’ll be “months of downside”?

AAPL needs to go above $142 to avoid the possibility of an 12345 down. Then: If it breaks down to $136s you can bet it is in bear mode: going down (more optimistic, sideways)

Max pain (Jun)=$135, max pain (Jul)=$120 up $5.00 and max pain (Oct)=$125 up $5.00.
Highest OI for Jun calls is $140.
Give above, if multi-month rally is intact, AAPL should close between $135-$140 on Jun OE Friday and above $125 on Jul OE Friday.  Since there is four weeks between the two OE Fridays, is unlikely AAPL would just grind down slowly to $125, there should be some significant up days, those bull traps, b-/x- waves.

AAPL is currently trending down along hourly channel lines.  Just bounce up from lower channel lines.

That is right

Right now at EMA19, bottom of channel up from $82.33 at $135.1x

(BTW, AFB team: what is the matter with the Fast Reply?, it just does not work)

chinabox - 12 June 2009 10:56 AM

That is right

Right now at EMA19, bottom of channel up from $82.33 at $135.1x

(BTW, AFB team: what is the matter with the Fast Reply?, it just does not work)

AAPL bounces off 20-day EMA, $136.06 .  Together with an ED, A or correction could be over.  B-wave or new impulse next week.

Edit:

chinabox,

Do you think best fit count should be the preferred count?  From max pain and historical AAPL behavior, it should be.  So, after a short bounce up, AAPL should continue to decline to 52-week EMA, currently at $120.43.  For AAPL to escape this faith, it has to rally above $142.44 next week.

Mace - 12 June 2009 02:42 PM

Edit:

chinabox,

Do you think best fit count should be the preferred count?
...

Yes. That bounce around $136 has no significance in the medium term. I could think different above $138, OC, above $142 will be great… but is not my bet.

About NDX now:

I was thinking NDX was in a 4th wave before 1491.62 (June 5th), but right now I am a little confused… Has somebody an alternate for this count? I know, labeling is wrong (“loose”) in the chart, but is much faster that way, taking into acount III should be typed as (III) or (3)  

Could it be that what I labeled III.3.iii.3 was in fact III.3.iii? Then, if 1461.94 (June 3rd) was 4th, we have 5 waves for III.3.v and now it is starting III.4 (I mean (III).(4) or (3).(iv) )...BUT, taking this late as the right one: what pattern was 1461.94 to 1511.94? Kind of diagonal?... I mean: where is pointing such construction? below 1425s it can not be a 4th from 1339.82 (May 13th)... or it could if expanded zigag? Noted volume is almost flat from this low? 

Ideas?

Max pain (Jun)=$135, max pain (Jul)=$125 up $5.00 and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Behavior of max pain (Jul) is encouraging, keep going up .  If multi-month rally is intact, AAPL should stay above $125 despite the looming possibility of a multi-week correction that may have started from $146.40.  Noted that 13-week EMA is above $125 while 52-week EMA is above $120.  I prefer watching these EMAs rather than the popular 50-day and 200-day MAs.

Highest OI for Jun calls is $140 and for Jun puts is $125.
For those who still not aware, AAPL would close between highest OI of call and puts, barring no surprise major news.  It would close closer to OI(call) when in multi-month rally and closer to OI(put) when in multi-month decline.

If tomorrow, AAPL close above max pain (Jun), currently at $135, we can conclude that it is still in multi-month rally.  However, max pain (Jul) is at $125 which mean AAPL can close above $125 on Jul OE, it is still in multi-month rally.  Putting in negative light is AAPL can decline to $125 from here.

Max pain (Jun)=$135, max pain (Jul)=$125 and max pain (Oct)=$125.
AAPL closed at $139.48 higher than max pain (Jun), hence multi-month rally is intact.  However, since max pain (Jul) is only $125, even if multi-month rally is intact, AAPL can decline to and close above $125 on Jul OE.

Updated preferred count:
1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
5.i=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
5.ii=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
5.iii=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
5.iv=$146.40 to $134.53, ret=48.2.%

5.v=$134.53 to:
v=i, $144.46, truncated
v=1.618 of i, $150.60
5=1, $144.18
5=1.618 of 1, $159.51
Hence, likely target of 5.v is $144.

Alternative count (previously known as best-fit count) remained unchanged:
1=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
2=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
3=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
4=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.
5=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
Now in wave two,
ret=23.6%, $130.30
ret=38.2%, $120.35
ret=61.8%, $104.25
If this count is correct, AAPL is in b-wave (up) of wave two.  Max price target for b-wave is $141.86.

Conclusion:  It doesn’t matter which count is correct, AAPL is unlikely to rally above $141-$144 next week, and will decline towards $125 after peaking.

Mace - 20 June 2009 01:04 AM

Conclusion:  It doesn’t matter which count is correct, AAPL is unlikely to rally above $141-$144 next week, and will decline towards $125 after peaking.

Sounds about right.

Max pain (Jul)=$125, max pain (Aug)=$145, good start   and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Yesterday, AAPL peaked at $141.56 and down hard today.  Is in wave two for sure.  Should be in third wave of wave c of wave two , 2.c.iii .

Mace - 23 June 2009 09:18 AM

Max pain (Jul)=$125, max pain (Aug)=$145, good start   and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Yesterday, AAPL peaked at $141.56 and down hard today.  Is in wave two for sure.  Should be in third wave of wave c of wave two , 2.c.iii .

Thanks for the update, Mace.

According to your counts (don’t worry, I won’t hold you liable ) what are the chances of us seeing $170-180 by say Sept/Oct?  I currently am still holding a some 2010 $200 calls and am wondering if those have seen the peak yet… am contemplating whether I should cut losses now or wait for a better opportunity (purely EW, of course, barring any news like Steve coming back having put on 30lbs )

TIA

Lord Farkward - 23 June 2009 10:44 AM

Mace - 23 June 2009 09:18 AM

Max pain (Jul)=$125, max pain (Aug)=$145, good start   and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Yesterday, AAPL peaked at $141.56 and down hard today.  Is in wave two for sure.  Should be in third wave of wave c of wave two , 2.c.iii .

Thanks for the update, Mace.

According to your counts (don’t worry, I won’t hold you liable ) what are the chances of us seeing $170-180 by say Sept/Oct?  I currently am still holding a some 2010 $200 calls and am wondering if those have seen the peak yet… am contemplating whether I should cut losses now or wait for a better opportunity (purely EW, of course, barring any news like Steve coming back having put on 30lbs )

TIA

If we’re right that it is in wave two and not E of a IV, then should see $170-$180 by Sep/Oct and over $200 (I computed it as $230) before Jan 10.  Don’t know how to compute probability.  However, I do know that for it to happen, AAPL must not break below 52-week EMA or close below max pain (Jul) on OE.

Mace - How does your EW count of AAPL fit in with what Neely is predicting?