alice - 23 June 2009 11:17 AM

Mace - How does your EW count of AAPL fit in with what Neely is predicting?

If Neely is right, AAPL is in wave E of Cycle IV .  AAPL would break below $80.  Let’s pray that he is wrong.

Mace - 23 June 2009 11:25 AM

alice - 23 June 2009 11:17 AM

Mace - How does your EW count of AAPL fit in with what Neely is predicting?

If Neely is right, AAPL is in wave E of Cycle IV .  AAPL would break below $80.  Let’s pray that he is wrong.

Take it from someone who knows….praying doesn’t help. 

Mace - 23 June 2009 09:18 AM

Max pain (Jul)=$125, max pain (Aug)=$145, good start   and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Yesterday, AAPL peaked at $141.56 and down hard today.  Is in wave two for sure.  Should be in third wave of wave c of wave two , 2.c.iii .

Mace,

We can see another different from $146.40: Count for an abc (c=a, today c.4=$135.10) and we get $129s. And there is EMA50. It is similar in NDX and SPX…

chinabox - 23 June 2009 02:16 PM

Mace - 23 June 2009 09:18 AM

Max pain (Jul)=$125, max pain (Aug)=$145, good start   and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Yesterday, AAPL peaked at $141.56 and down hard today.  Is in wave two for sure.  Should be in third wave of wave c of wave two , 2.c.iii .

Mace,

We can see another different from $146.40: Count for an abc (c=a, today c.4=$135.10) and we get $129s. And there is EMA50. It is similar in NDX and SPX…

What’s the difference?  Now in 2.c.v.

Mace - If aapl closes above Jul max pain of $125 but below Aug max pain of $145 then aapl is no longer in multi month rally.  Correct?

alice - 23 June 2009 04:08 PM

Mace - If aapl closes above Jul max pain of $125 but below Aug max pain of $145 then aapl is no longer in multi month rally.  Correct?

Still in multi-month rally.  In fact, if AAPL hits $130 tomorrow and bounce up, good chance that it will close around max pain (Aug) on Jul OE.  I’ve placed a conditional buy of Aug calls if AAPL is trading less than $130.  A wave two can be a 1:1 zigzag as pointed out by chinabox i.e. completes at $129s or 1:1.618 i.e completes at $122s.  Hopefully is $129s not $122s.  Any price lower than $122s, panic mode.

Mace - 23 June 2009 04:17 PM

alice - 23 June 2009 04:08 PM

Mace - If aapl closes above Jul max pain of $125 but below Aug max pain of $145 then aapl is no longer in multi month rally.  Correct?

Still in multi-month rally.  In fact, if AAPL hits $130 tomorrow and bounce up, good chance that it will close around max pain (Aug) on Jul OE.  I’ve placed a conditional buy of Aug calls if AAPL is trading less than $130.  A wave two can be a 1:1 zigzag as pointed out by chinabox i.e. completes at $129s or 1:1.618 i.e completes at $122s.  Hopefully is $129s not $122s.  Any price lower than $122s, panic mode.

Which Aug calls(strike price) will you be buying when/if aapl < 130?  Also, from reading other AFB posts, aapl is believed generally to move sideways during the summer months and start to move up in the fall.  Zeke mentioned in several of his posts and that Aug is the time to buy. (that’s what I remember).

alice - 23 June 2009 04:38 PM

... Which Aug calls(strike price) will you be buying when/if aapl < 130?  Also, from reading other AFB posts, aapl is believed generally to move sideways during the summer months and start to move up in the fall.  Zeke’s mentioned in several of his posts.

$135.  Zeke is referring to the Apple Cycle, all AFB oldies are aware of this Cycle.  Apple tends to bottom between May-Jul and peak between Nov-Jan.  For broad market, Wall Street have these sayings:

Sell in May and come back in Sep.
Christmas rally.  Rally in late Nov till Christmas.
Jan effect.  Market up in Jan mean up for the year.
Apr effect.  Sell winners to raise cash for tax.

Above phenomenon is visible so long there are no major events masking them.

Mace - 23 June 2009 03:55 PM

chinabox - 23 June 2009 02:16 PM

Mace - 23 June 2009 09:18 AM

Max pain (Jul)=$125, max pain (Aug)=$145, good start   and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Yesterday, AAPL peaked at $141.56 and down hard today.  Is in wave two for sure.  Should be in third wave of wave c of wave two , 2.c.iii .

Mace,

We can see another different from $146.40: Count for an abc (c=a, today c.4=$135.10) and we get $129s. And there is EMA50. It is similar in NDX and SPX…

What’s the difference?  Now in 2.c.v.

My bad… I thought you talked about 3rd of w2. Sorry

Bottom was $132.88, but were is 2.c.v?. It seems a zigzag from $141.56. Weird pattern… IMO it is not ended.

chinabox - 24 June 2009 12:27 PM

... Bottom was $132.88, but were is 2.c.v?. It seems a zigzag from $141.56. Weird pattern… IMO it is not ended.

Confounded me too.  The only reason I can come up with is 2.c is a triangle.

2.c.(a)=$141.56 to $132.88
2.c.(b)=$132.88 to ... in progress.

However, is logical from a channel line perspective.  It bounces off the lower channel line joining all the bottom since Apr.

Edit:  If AAPL is tracing a triangle since $141.56, it is more consistent with a wave four i.e. preferred count.  Hehe, sometime behave like preferred count, sometime behave like best-fit count.  Need to consult Glenn Neely’s book.

Mace - 24 June 2009 12:45 PM

chinabox - 24 June 2009 12:27 PM

... Bottom was $132.88, but were is 2.c.v?. It seems a zigzag from $141.56. Weird pattern… IMO it is not ended.

Confounded me too.  The only reason I can come up with is 2.c is a triangle.

2.c.(a)=$141.56 to $132.88
2.c.(b)=$132.88 to ... in progress.

However, is logical from a channel line perspective.  It bounces off the lower channel line joining all the bottom since Apr.
...

Triangle… could be. Lets see where it stops.

sstenner - 23 June 2009 11:29 AM

Mace - 23 June 2009 11:25 AM

alice - 23 June 2009 11:17 AM

Mace - How does your EW count of AAPL fit in with what Neely is predicting?

If Neely is right, AAPL is in wave E of Cycle IV .  AAPL would break below $80.  Let’s pray that he is wrong.

Take it from someone who knows….praying doesn’t help. 

Louis Naviellier and a few other think tech sector is about to breakout.  However, he prefers AMZN and RIMM even though he admitted that Apple is on a tear, my take is because of SJ’s health.

Mace - 23 June 2009 11:11 AM

If we’re right that it is in wave two and not E of a IV, then should see $170-$180 by Sep/Oct and over $200 (I computed it as $230) before Jan 10.  Don’t know how to compute probability.  However, I do know that for it to happen, AAPL must not break below 52-week EMA or close below max pain (Jul) on OE.

That’s good to know - that at least there’re counts that support that view.  Thanks again for the update!

EDIT - PS sorry don’t have bloomberg with me right now.  What’s the current 52 wk EMA? Thanks!

According to this weekly chart, 52-week EMA is $121.75.  Weekly technicals is bullish.

Mace - 25 June 2009 12:47 AM

According to this weekly chart, 52-week EMA is $121.75.  Weekly technicals is bullish.

Disagree. My weekly technicals are flagging a concern. Stochastics show greatly overbought and a divergence with price. This is exactly what I would expect at the top of a market. However confirmation will not happen for another week or two if the MAs cross over. The question is how long will it stay in this overbought territory? The daily shows the opposite. Oversold territory for stochastics, so we could get a shorter multiday rally soon.

So if I was a longer-term trader, I’d be watching the weekly very closely to get out. Then I would not get in until the stochastics go to oversold territory which will then be months down the road.