Mace - If aapl closes above Jul max pain of $125 but below Aug max pain of $145 then aapl is no longer in multi month rally. Correct?
Still in multi-month rally. In fact, if AAPL hits $130 tomorrow and bounce up, good chance that it will close around max pain (Aug) on Jul OE. I’ve placed a conditional buy of Aug calls if AAPL is trading less than $130. A wave two can be a 1:1 zigzag as pointed out by chinabox i.e. completes at $129s or 1:1.618 i.e completes at $122s. Hopefully is $129s not $122s. Any price lower than $122s, panic mode.
Mace, are you still expecting a pullback to below $130 or do you think the low of 132-133 on Tuesday was it? Wondering when you will buy the Aug calls 135.
Mace - If aapl closes above Jul max pain of $125 but below Aug max pain of $145 then aapl is no longer in multi month rally. Correct?
Still in multi-month rally. In fact, if AAPL hits $130 tomorrow and bounce up, good chance that it will close around max pain (Aug) on Jul OE. I’ve placed a conditional buy of Aug calls if AAPL is trading less than $130. A wave two can be a 1:1 zigzag as pointed out by chinabox i.e. completes at $129s or 1:1.618 i.e completes at $122s. Hopefully is $129s not $122s. Any price lower than $122s, panic mode.
Mace, are you still expecting a pullback to below $130 or do you think the low of 132-133 on Tuesday was it? Wondering when you will buy the Aug calls 135.
Still waiting for $129s . I believe is a triangular corrective wave to $130.
cramar - Toppy in a bull trend is still considered as bullish.
Max pain (Jul)=$125, max pain (Aug)=$150 up $5.00 and max pain (Oct)=$125.
Behavior of max pain (Aug) is encouraging, keep going up . Traders betting on good coming quarter results.
Mace - If aapl closes above Jul max pain of $125 but below Aug max pain of $145 then aapl is no longer in multi month rally. Correct?
Still in multi-month rally. In fact, if AAPL hits $130 tomorrow and bounce up, good chance that it will close around max pain (Aug) on Jul OE. I’ve placed a conditional buy of Aug calls if AAPL is trading less than $130. A wave two can be a 1:1 zigzag as pointed out by chinabox i.e. completes at $129s or 1:1.618 i.e completes at $122s. Hopefully is $129s not $122s. Any price lower than $122s, panic mode.
Mace, are you still expecting a pullback to below $130 or do you think the low of 132-133 on Tuesday was it? Wondering when you will buy the Aug calls 135.
Still waiting for $129s . I believe is a triangular corrective wave to $130.
cramar - Toppy in a bull trend is still considered as bullish.
Still bullish… still above $129… still into channel up… still below trend from $146.40 (closing was at the top, but not above the downline)... still weird pattern…
The money today was betting buy. Could be triangle to EMA50, but it is not so important. Is market (NDX, SPX) pointing up?... IMO yes: ABC is clear from June 11th highs. I will change my bullish mind below NDX 1445 and SPX 905
Max pain (Jul)=$130 up $5.00, max pain (Aug)=$150 and max pain (Oct)=$125.
The probability of AAPL closing around max pain (Aug) on OE Friday is pretty high. Edit: For this to happen, highest OI (Aug call) has to change to $155 instead of $140.
Zeke: Max pain (Jul) is now $130, rising fast , If multi-month rally is intact, AAPL would close above $130 on OE Friday. If close below max pain, no point opening a long position. In other words, you won’t be able/unwise to get AAPL at $115. What’s your move?
Updated preferred count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
1.v.(2)=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
1.v.(3)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
1.v.(4)=$146.40 to $132.88, ret=55%
v.(5)=$132.88 to:
(5)=(1), $142.81, truncated
(5)=1.618 of (1), $148.95
v=i, $144.18
v=1.618 of i, $159.51 Edit: Looking at the hourly chart, AAPL seems to be in 1.v.(5).(i) which is extended since stochastics is overbought and still going up. If true, target of 1.v.(5).(v) is $150. Target of wave (i) is $144 and (ii) is $137-9
Alternative count (previously known as best-fit count) remained unchanged:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.
1.v=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
Now in wave 2,
ret=23.6%, $130.30
ret=38.2%, $120.35
ret=61.8%, $104.25
The lowest point is $132.88, about 20% ret. Can we conclude that wave 2 is over and now in wave three? Edit: Btw, 20% ret is too shallow for wave 2. If this count is correct, then $132.88 is W, currently in X (up). Watch out for Y which should bring AAPL down to $130 and not lower since max pain (Jul) is already $130.
Conclusion: It doesn’t matter which count is correct, AAPL is unlikely to rally above $141-$144 next week, and will decline towards $125 after peaking.
Sounds about right.
We got the peak right . Next week, is a little hard to see. My bet is AAPL to decline to $137.
Edit: Btw, 20% ret is too shallow for wave 2. If this count is correct, then $132.88 is W, currently in X (up). Watch out for Y which should bring AAPL down to $130 and not lower since max pain (Jul) is already $130.
Note: I’ve relabelled to one degree lower.
We bounced at 132.88 as that was almost exactly a 50% retracement of the previous leg up from 119.40 to 146.40. Thursday saw a 50% retracement of that retracement and even then I believe a lot was down to window dressing and short covering as it had been shaping up to go lower than 132 during the PM. Yesterday was just as strange as once again it climbed when it was initially shaping up for a fall (more window dressing and a breakout of the down channel it was in?). With the move down being a retest of it’s previous channel down’s upper boundary.
The move above the previous high of 141.56 likely fuelled more short covering and then we ran out of gas as we hit one of the retracement levels on the much larger AAPL chart at 142.22 and the top of it’s current upward channel. Assuming that we correct on Monday (things are looking very overbought in the short term now), we could either see this be a pullback before a move higher (say to 146 region) if the correction bottoms out above 139, but if it goes much lower than that on Monday (i.e below 138.71), AAPL drops back into its previous downward channel, which has a channel bottom currently around 130, and this could mean we see a move back to those levels in the following day(s).
Personally to think that AAPL won’t go lower than 130 because that is July’s max pain is not a great rule, as we’ve seen moves below max pain numbers in the past by more than a dollar or so, but in this case I think you might be correct. However, I am looking at the small gap between 130.83 and 130.91 from 26-27 May and think that might get filled if AAPL starts to drop again.
Talking of filling gaps, I notice that AAPL managed to just fill the gap between the 9-10 June of 142.43 to 142.52 on Friday. Make of that what you will.
... Personally to think that AAPL won’t go lower than 130 because that is July’s max pain is not a great rule, as we’ve seen moves below max pain numbers in the past by more than a dollar or so ...
First thing first, your TA is excellent, impressive. Obviously, you’ve put in much effort in learning them. Agree with your observation about $130, however, is so rare for it to decline below max pain temporarily when it is in a multi-month rally that I’ve simplified the rule. If it does decline below $130 before OE, is either a godsend buy opportunity or get out fast, usually the decision time is pretty short. Since $133.50 to $119.38 is an Intermediate degree’s wave four, AAPL has to decline to $130 eventually since corrective wave of Primary degree would decline to Intermediate degree’s wave four, except for extended fifth wave. It would happen either in Jul (max pain (Jul) is $130) or a few months later (likely to be Oct since max pain is $125). Is unlikely to be Aug since max pain (Aug) is $150 and I expect max pain (Sep) to be higher than $140. Also, I believe AAPL would hit $155-$160 before earning announcement ... after that is critical decision time ... rally to over $200 by year end or tumbled towards $80.
Can you see 5 waves from $132.88 to $144.66? I said this because $141.99 to $144.66 is about .618 ret of [1] (I am working with [1]=$132.88 to $137.50, June 24th), and AAPL failed to bounce around $143.6x. That level was the reference during Monday and Tuesday trading, so it is/was important. Below $142.6x I will suppose it will go down to $139s or $136s. The preferred count could be:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80
?1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.1
?1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93?
1.v.(2)=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%?
1.v.(3)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65?
1.v.(4)=$146.40 to $132.88, ret=55%
1.v.(5).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(5).(ii)=in progress…
Can you see 5 waves from $132.88 to $144.66? I said this because $141.99 to $144.66 is about .618 ret of [1] (I am working with [1]=$132.88 to $137.50, June 24th), and AAPL failed to bounce around $143.6x. That level was the reference during Monday and Tuesday trading, so it is/was important. Below $142.6x I will suppose it will go down to $139s or $136s. The preferred count could be:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80
?1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.1
?1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93?
1.v.(2)=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%?
1.v.(3)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65?
1.v.(4)=$146.40 to $132.88, ret=55%
1.v.(5).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(5).(ii)=in progress…
. I believe is a triangular corrective wave to $130.
$5.00 and max pain (Oct)=$125.
. Traders betting on good coming quarter results.
, If multi-month rally is intact, AAPL would close above $130 on OE Friday. If close below max pain, no point opening a long position. In other words, you won’t be able/unwise to get AAPL at $115. What’s your move? 
. Next week, is a little hard to see. My bet is AAPL to decline to $137.
. My take is if 20-day EMA held, then is 1.v.(5).(i), if failed, then is truncated 1.v.(5).
