... past Wednesday was $96.23 and today low is $96.50, that is not good…
Breaking below could mean breaking down to $80 again*. Consistent with Art Cashin’s view that S&P has to hold 884. 1-min, 5-min and hourly chart looks bullish. So let’s pray and worry more.
*Refer to daily chart, a valid abc has formed ($85 to $103.60). $96.23 is supposedly a wave one, AAPL declining below $96.23 would invalidate the wave one-two-three possibility. That would mean AAPL would be in d of a descending wedge or c.v .
Sorry to ask what is probably a very basic question. But is a wave series of one-two-three good or bad? I assume waves in general can be good or bad.
Thanks
Generally, a series of one-two-three waves is almost always a corrective pattern opposite to the previous (main) trend. In real markets, most of the time is spent on sideways corrective patterns and the bigger moves are the main trend. They are called impulse waves. You knows them when you sees them! The general rule is that impulse waves subdivide into five waves, while corrective waves have three.
From infrastructure thread, I noted FLR is in early stage of a multi-month rally. Refer to this daily chart. From $28.52 to now looks like an extended first wave impulse. An ideal entry point would be if it declines to near $40.
For layman, is sufficient to know that if AAPL declines below $96.23, the possibility of it retesting $79 is high. And if it can clear above $112 or stay above $95 on OE friday, the possibility of AAPL rallying to at least $126 is high.
This morning looks like we’ll see a day that AAPL will decline below $96.23. But it may not stay there. Does covering by the end of the day negate the possibility of retesting $79? Or does EW see closing prices and intraday prices as the same? Should we consider selling today and wait to buy back at 79, or the low 80s?
For layman, is sufficient to know that if AAPL declines below $96.23, the possibility of it retesting $79 is high. And if it can clear above $112 or stay above $95 on OE friday, the possibility of AAPL rallying to at least $126 is high.
This morning looks like we’ll see a day that AAPL will decline below $96.23. But it may not stay there. Does covering by the end of the day negate the possibility of retesting $79? Or does EW see closing prices and intraday prices as the same? Should we consider selling today and wait to buy back at 79, or the low 80s?
EW is too ambiguous as it usually is. For example $96.23 is 50% retracement, with $94.49 as 61.8%. The poke down on open was not unexpected to me since gaps act as magnets and a lower target this morning. I had a projection target of around $95.90 yesterday, and when it did not get met, I figured today at a projection target around $95.75 would be attainable. I did not buy, because I am still nervous about adding to my position with some technicals on the verge of turning negative. Longer term, EW looks to me like a corrective pattern off the $79 low instead of some major bull move, even though it could go relatively high. Perhaps I am being too cautious since a rocket off the low today might be the start of something big in the next couple of days. Projection off the low indicates a test of $103 is very likely.
In general, are EW pulses based on closing prices, or highs and lows during the Intraday?
EW is based on waves from highs and lows. Closing is irrelevant although it does provide some useful information.
There is of course another school that likes closes, especially when using a system that monitors closes only. My commodity broker said once, “It is the close that counts, the interday stuff is just noise.”
So your earlier statement about AAPL declining to 96.23 increasing the possibility of retesting 79 is still valid? We did drop below 96.23 this morning (low was 95.78). Wojuld this possibility be negated if AAPL were to get to $112, or stay above $95 on OE, as you speculated?
So your earlier statement about AAPL declining to 96.23 increasing the possibility of retesting 79 is still valid? We did drop below 96.23 this morning (low was 95.78). Wojuld this possibility be negated if AAPL were to get to $112, or stay above $95 on OE, as you speculated?
I don’t think AAPL will retest 79 anytime soon. Even if it falls apart and takes out today’s low and the gap, it still may not take out that 79 low. It is possible that AAPL will fail at one of the previous resistance points and fall back, but not take out the 79 low, then mount another leg up. This would be consistent with a complex corrective wave from the Nov. low. However, it is more likely that AAPL will chop higher before we have to worry about a new multi-year low, especially with the gap still intact. That is a bullish sign.
A) Impulse 12345 terminated?: opening was $92.53, below Wen.10 $96.23 and Wen.3 (previous week (pw)) $95.25, so (3).[iv] and (4) are…
B) Alternative reading:
B1) Tue.2 (pw) $86.76, Fri.5 $88.86 and $92.53 are almost perfectly aligned, while
B2) Mon.1 $91.58, Wen.10 (pw) $96.23 and Tue.9 $103.60 are also over the same line (almost)
B3) both lines draw an expanding wedge (triangle, flag,..), and $92.53 seems wave d
...
In other words, is either like Feb or like Aug. I can’t tell. Technicals are similar.
I like you talked about Feb and technicals: Very interesting is the shape from Jan 22 to Feb 28, just after the big deep on high and decreasing Volume, plus a gap down and before the $132.20 high. That sequence does not match so good when we look at Aug.
If compared with Sep 29 to date period we see there are coincidences in Volume shape (before and after the gap down), little delayed MACD bottom and more delayed flat STO (I post it again for easy refence). But, can you see a gap up at this moment?, hardly!
A) Impulse 12345 terminated?: opening was $92.53, below Wen.10 $96.23 and Wen.3 (previous week (pw)) $95.25, so (3).[iv] and (4) are…
B) Alternative reading:
B1) Tue.2 (pw) $86.76, Fri.5 $88.86 and $92.53 are almost perfectly aligned, while
B2) Mon.1 $91.58, Wen.10 (pw) $96.23 and Tue.9 $103.60 are also over the same line (almost)
B3) both lines draw an expanding wedge (triangle, flag,..), and $92.53 seems wave d
Most interesting. Wave count notwithstanding, just did a projection before reading this. Assuming we do not have a major sell-off in the final hour today, and we get above $100 Monday, I’m projecting it should stall out around $107 +/- $1. Max upside today has to be around $99.50 where it runs into the downtread line from $103 & $101.
A) Impulse 12345 terminated?: opening was $92.53, below Wen.10 $96.23 and Wen.3 (previous week (pw)) $95.25, so (3).[iv] and (4) are…
B) Alternative reading:
B1) Tue.2 (pw) $86.76, Fri.5 $88.86 and $92.53 are almost perfectly aligned, while
B2) Mon.1 $91.58, Wen.10 (pw) $96.23 and Tue.9 $103.60 are also over the same line (almost)
B3) both lines draw an expanding wedge (triangle, flag,..), and $92.53 seems wave d
Most interesting. Wave count notwithstanding, just did a projection before reading this. Assuming we do not have a major sell-off in the final hour today, and we get above $100 Monday, I’m projecting it should stall out around $107 +/- $1. Max upside today has to be around $99.50 where it runs into the downtrend line from $103 & $101.
Confirmed below line Tue.2 (pw)-$86.76, Fri.5 $88.86-Fri $92.53… expanding wedge (triangle, flag,..) is violated. I am waiting $92.53 to break, seems it will go down, possible expanding wedge to $107s is over
VIX downtrend broken, waiting higher high for confirmation…
Are you saying AAPL was in c.iv and now in c.v? Price behavior is more similar to late Aug, not so similar to Mar (meant to say Mar, not Feb, previously). If so, price target is scary, about $57.
Invisible force pinning AAPL below max pain (dec) of $95. On OE Friday, we need AAPL to close at least 50 cents above $95, preferably $100, to confirm a multi-month rally. If can’t, a few cents below $95 is better than less than 50 cents above.
Technicals are always ambiguous at critical juncture. For those who have a big long position and unwilling to sell out, is a good time to hedge.
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