clairebear04 - 04 July 2009 01:48 PM

interesting post. thanks for sharing

simulation rachat de credit

Welcome to AFB.

Mace - 04 July 2009 10:58 PM

[...]
Comment:  If AAPL is still in multi-month rally, it would close above $130, likely just below $150 on OE Friday, Jul 18.  Daily RSI, PPO and ADX are bullish.  Stochastics is overbought.

[...]

Stochastic is also overbought on the weekly.

Mace, explain why you see daily RSI as bullish.  I would characterize it as ambiguous.  True the two year uptrend has not been broken.  But on the other hand RSI(14) was at about 74 with AAPL at 140 in early June, and now it is only about 56 with the stock also at 140.

capablanca - 05 July 2009 10:37 PM

Mace - 04 July 2009 10:58 PM

[...]
Comment:  If AAPL is still in multi-month rally, it would close above $130, likely just below $150 on OE Friday, Jul 18.  Daily RSI, PPO and ADX are bullish.  Stochastics is overbought.

[...]

Stochastic is also overbought on the weekly.

Mace, explain why you see daily RSI as bullish.  I would characterize it as ambiguous ...

There are no divergence with price and is above 50.

Stochastics on daily is ambiguous to me. But even though RSI on weekly might not show a divergence with price, stochastics does! A solid stochastics sell signal could come this week.

Mace - 05 July 2009 11:47 PM

capablanca - 05 July 2009 10:37 PM

Mace - 04 July 2009 10:58 PM

[...]
Comment:  If AAPL is still in multi-month rally, it would close above $130, likely just below $150 on OE Friday, Jul 18.  Daily RSI, PPO and ADX are bullish.  Stochastics is overbought.

[...]

Stochastic is also overbought on the weekly.

Mace, explain why you see daily RSI as bullish.  I would characterize it as ambiguous ...

There are no divergence with price and is above 50.

Let’s reconcile our definitions of divergence.  As of the weekend RSI had fallen from 74 (stock at 140) to 56 (stock at 140).  What more is needed for you to identify it as divergence?  (Today RSI is down to 52.5 with the stock at 138.50).

If you believe that preferred count is correct, good time to buy.

v.(5)=$132.88 to:
(5)=(1), $142.81, truncated
(5)=1.618 of (1), $148.95
v=i, $144.18, truncated
v=1.618 of i, $159.51

1.v.(5).(i) = $132.88-$144.66.  61.8% ret is $137.38.  78.6% ret is $135.40.  Today’s LoD is $135.62.  Hence, 1.v.(5).(ii) could be completed.  Otherwise, stay on the sideline and see whether $132.88 is broken.

Edit:  LoD is $135.10.  Closed at $135.40 , exactly 78.6% ret.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally.
Max pain (Jul)=$130, max pain (Aug)=$150 and max pain (Oct)=$130.
Highest OI (Jul call)=$150, OI (Jul put)=$130, OI (Aug call)=$150 and OI (Aug put)=$135.

Preferred count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
1.v.(2)=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
1.v.(3)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
1.v.(4)=$146.40 to $132.88, ret=55%

v.(5)=$132.88 to:
(5)=(1), $142.81, truncated
(5)=1.618 of (1), $148.95
v=i, $144.18, truncated
v=1.618 of i, $159.51
Comment:  So far, it appears to be:
1.v.(5).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(5).(ii)=$144.66 to $134.42
1.v.(5).(iii)=$134.42 to ...
If you believe in this count, is good time to buy.  Count invalid if AAPL declines below $132.88.

Alternative count (previously known as best-fit count):
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.
1.v=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
Now in wave 2,
ret=23.6%, $130.30
ret=38.2%, $120.35
ret=61.8%, $104.25
Comment:  The lowest price is $132.88, about 20% ret which is too shallow for wave 2.  If this count is correct, then $132.88 is W, currently in X.c (up).

Conclusion:  Expect AAPL to close a couple of dollars above $140 on OE Friday.

Max pain (Jul)=$130, max pain (Aug)=$155 up $5.00 and max pain (Oct)=$130.

Max pain (Jul)=$130, max pain (Aug)=$140 down $15 and max pain (Oct)=$130.

Max pain (Aug) drops precipitously to $140.  Traders expect a sell-the-news event?  Need to verify max pain tomorrow’s morning.  Low max pain (Aug) means AAPL needs only to stay above $140 on Aug OE Friday for the multi-month rally to be intact.  Unless something big happen from now till coming Friday, we should expect AAPL to close above max pain (Jul)=$130 on OE Friday.  My gut feel remains that it would close a couple of dollars above $140.  My excessively optimistic view is AAPL should be trading at $155 around earning day.

Thanks once again for the update, Mace.

The sudden drop in the max pain is indeed worrying… could it be an anticipation of bad guidance (though that should affect Jul more, right?)? Though your sell-the-news-event seems to be more probable… either way, it’s worrying

Lord Farkward - 15 July 2009 02:00 AM

Thanks once again for the update, Mace.

The sudden drop in the max pain is indeed worrying… could it be an anticipation of bad guidance (though that should affect Jul more, right?)? Though your sell-the-news-event seems to be more probable… either way, it’s worrying

21 Jul is after Jul OE.  What we might see is AAPL rallies till earning day (complete wave 1) and then sell the news (beginning of wave 2).  Expect wave 2 completes near 52-week EMA, currently at $123.95 .  By Aug OE Friday, max pain (Aug) could have declined to $125.

Mace, still the number one
I am going on with “Preferred Count”. But first to lines about SPX and NDX… and TA and fakes. No offense, please, it is just what is happening… I suppose next is “Triple Top” or whatever Bloomberg, CNBC and other goodfellas thought is the next buy-the-panic best-fitting-new
SPX: H&S does not exists . Expanding Triangle from 956.23 is bogus. Now it is/should be w1 of 3rd (call it (III).(1) or (3).(i) or…)
NDX: H&S does not exists. Triangle from 1511.94 is bogus. It is/should be the beginning w3 of 3rd (call it (III).(3). or (3).(iii).[1] or…)
APPL: we are rolling with 1.v.(5).(iii). Target $160s

I’m switching to bullish! Yesterday’s powerful up day on the markets was a confirmation. The H&S is dead! It was bound to fail when everyone including the mainstream media is calling attention to it!

Last weekend it I thought it looked worrisome for the bears. The wave action on the S&P has been looking like a classic A-B-C correction since June, and daily stochastics indicate the market should rise. I was reminded that this could be an almost exact repeat of the summer of 2004. Then the “expert” at EWI was calling for an imminent collapse in the S&P. I looked at the chart with my limited EW knowledge and thought, “It looks like a classic A-B-C to me, which means a major rally instead of collapse.”  But what did I know?  No one was bullish. The world-renowned EW expert says DOWN! He didn’t even give a market rise as the alternate count. It wasn’t even on his radar! He as so biased that he could not see the obvious.

So I threw almost everything in my account into an S&P futures put option. The market rose dramatically, my option got killed, my account got killed, and I learned some valuable lessons. One was not to put all my eggs into banking the market is going to go in a certain direction. Another was to treat all experts with a grain of salt! Even the best seem to fail when you need them to be right the most. I wrote the EW “expert” and gave him $@##!

Now I figure that there is a better probability that the broad markets will go up short term. There are too many that think the market is going to tank! An S&P rise to at least a 1000+ 38% retracement is realistic, possibly even 50%! This could possibly last until Sept. At the peak, the bullish sentiment should be extreme that the worst is permanently behind us and good time are here again! Yet it wouldn’t change the long-term scenario 6-months to 2 years out—since nothing fundamentally has changed and the economic chickens will come home to roost! After the wave tops out, a wave 3 collapse should occur. If it does, it will dwarf the collapse of last fall.

What does this mean for AAPL? It should rally more. I project an possible upside tarkget of $160+. We will see.

I recently saw a long-term NASDAQ Elliott Wave chart where the current rally is shown in long-term supercycle perspective. If the wave count completes as shown, when this rally terminates, there should be a devastating longer-term cycle collapse that takes it to the 600 level in 2011. That means it will loose 2/3 of its value over the next two years! 

So much for those who hope AAPL will hit $300 by then.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally.
Max pain (Jul)=$130, max pain (Aug)=$140 and max pain (Oct)=$130.
Highest OI (Jul call)=$150, OI (Jul put)=$130, OI (Aug call)=$150 and OI (Aug put)=$130.

AAPL closed at $151.75.  Yippee!  Above max pain.  AAPL still in multi-month rally.