Wheeles, I don’t post on this thread, but I do read it.  I’ll miss you whilst you toil in the monastery.

Maybe you can find Obi-Wan and get your mind on the right side of the force. Come back soon.

Good hunt, wheeles. I am sure this/your new system will work better.

Yesterday, Mace wrote:

“...
Looking at the hourly chart, today’s $158.73 should be completion of 1.v.(5).(iv).  38.2% ret is $149.44.  50% ret is $146.58.”

I supouse you mean 1.v.(5).(v), then 1.v, then 1… Next is 2. Not to say this count does not match the market “new bull spirit”, but this will not be the first time, right?. Just to be the evil advocate: Indexes are drawing new maximimums, and putting aside counts for a moment, I think $146s is the natural landing area. Less would surprise me after the late run…

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally.
Max pain (Aug)=$150 up $5.00, max pain (Sep)=$160 up $10.00 and max pain (Oct)=$135 up $5.00
Highest OI (Aug call)=$160 and OI (Aug put)=$140.
Comment:  Still in multi-month rally.

Preferred count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
1.v.(2)=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
1.v.(3)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
1.v.(4)=$146.40 to $132.88, ret=55%

1.v.(5).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(5).(ii)=$144.66 to $134.42
1.v.(5).(iii)=$134.42 to $158.73
1.v.(5).(iv)=$158.73 to ...
14.6% ret, =$155.18
23.6% ret, =$152.99
38.2% ret, =$149.44
Norm (v)=2.618 of (i), =$163.72

1.v.(5)=$132.88 to:
(5)=(1), =$142.81, truncated
(5)=1.618 of (1), =$148.95
(5)=1.618 of (1) + (3), =$163.10, extended
v=i, =$144.18, truncated
v=1.618 of i, =$159.51

Comment:  From hourly chart, $158.73 is likely completion of (iii), now in 1.v.(5).(iv).  Should complete near 20-day EMA, currently at $145.92.

Alternative count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.

1.v.(1)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
1.v.(2)=$146.40 to $132.88
1.v.(3).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(3).(ii)=$144.66 to $134.42
1.v.(3).(iii)=$134.42 to ...
Yup, similar to preferred but more bullish.

Mace - 23 July 2009 09:44 AM

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally.
Max pain (Aug)=$150 up $5.00, max pain (Sep)=$160 up $10.00 and max pain (Oct)=$135 up $5.00
Highest OI (Aug call)=$160 and OI (Aug put)=$140.
Comment:  Still in multi-month rally.

Preferred count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
1.v.(2)=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
1.v.(3)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
1.v.(4)=$146.40 to $132.88, ret=55%

1.v.(5).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(5).(ii)=$144.66 to $134.42
1.v.(5).(iii)=$134.42 to $158.73
1.v.(5).(iv)=$158.73 to ...
14.6% ret, =$155.18
23.6% ret, =$152.99
38.2% ret, =$149.44
Norm (v)=2.618 of (i), =$163.72

1.v.(5)=$132.88 to:
(5)=(1), =$142.81, truncated
(5)=1.618 of (1), =$148.95
(5)=1.618 of (1) + (3), =$163.10, extended
v=i, =$144.18, truncated
v=1.618 of i, =$159.51

Comment:  From hourly chart, $158.73 is likely completion of (iii), now in 1.v.(5).(iv).  Should complete near 20-day EMA, currently at $145.92.

Alternative count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.

1.v.(1)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
1.v.(2)=$146.40 to $132.88
1.v.(3).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(3).(ii)=$144.66 to $134.42
1.v.(3).(iii)=$134.42 to ...
Yup, similar to preferred but more bullish.

Mace, how long will 1.v.(5).(iv) last?  Is there a time frame for completion of this wave to 145.92?

alice - 23 July 2009 09:56 AM

... Mace, how long will 1.v.(5).(iv) last?  Is there a time frame for completion of this wave to 145.92?

Normally take 0.618 to 1.618 the length of (ii).  So should be 3 to 10 days.  Btw, I said 20-day EMA not $145.92 ... why oh why guys also misinterpreted me.

Mace - 23 July 2009 10:10 AM

alice - 23 July 2009 09:56 AM

... Mace, how long will 1.v.(5).(iv) last?  Is there a time frame for completion of this wave to 145.92?

Normally take 0.618 to 1.618 the length of (ii).  So should be 3 to 10 days.  Btw, I said 20-day EMA not $145.92 ... why oh why guys also misinterpreted me.

Sorry Mace - you said 20-day EMA and not 145.92.

Just a reminder, 1000 for S&P 500 is the point where it is either the completion of a wave four or a wave one.  See this May 8’s post.  It doesn’t matter which count is correct, what ensue is a sharp decline.

Mace - 23 July 2009 12:11 PM

Just a reminder, 1000 for S&P 500 is the point where it is either the completion of a wave four or a wave one.  See this May 8’s post.  It doesn’t matter which count is correct, what ensue is a sharp decline.

Mace, how will this (sharp decline of SP500) affect the Preferred Count for aapl?  What is the time frame of this sharp decline?

Mace - 23 July 2009 12:11 PM

Just a reminder, 1000 for S&P 500 is the point where it is either the completion of a wave four or a wave one.  See this May 8’s post.  It doesn’t matter which count is correct, what ensue is a sharp decline.

There are other wave counts that could be true, and if they are your May labelling is wrong. EW experts all seem to indicate either an A-wave top or currently under a C-wave advance or near a C-wave top. Either way a decline is immanent. The magnitude of the decline will depend on the wave count. When the C-wave tops…shock and awe!!

alice - 23 July 2009 02:44 PM

Mace - 23 July 2009 12:11 PM

Just a reminder, 1000 for S&P 500 is the point where it is either the completion of a wave four or a wave one.  See this May 8’s post.  It doesn’t matter which count is correct, what ensue is a sharp decline.

Mace, how will this (sharp decline of SP500) affect the Preferred Count for aapl?  What is the time frame of this sharp decline?

S&P’s 1000 likely to coincide with completion of AAPL’s wave 1.  Should be two to four months.  Btw, five of five (hope u don’t ask me what I mean) is a bull trap.  Is the reason I’m cautioning chinabox not to be too aggressive.  Is time to be over-cautious.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally.
Max pain (Aug)=$150, max pain (Sep)=$160 and max pain (Oct)=$135.
Highest OI (Aug calls)=$160 and OI (Aug puts)=$140.
Highest OI (Sep calls)=$170 and OI (Sep puts)=$145.
Comment:  If AAPL is still in multi-month rally, AAPL should close above $150 on OE.

Preferred count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $129.31, length=$9.93
1.v.(2)=$129.31 to $121.75, ret=76.1%
1.v.(3)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65
1.v.(4)=$146.40 to $132.88, ret=55%

1.v.(5).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66
1.v.(5).(ii)=$144.66 to $134.42
1.v.(5).(iii)=$134.42 to $158.73
1.v.(5).(iv)=$158.73 to ...
14.6% ret, =$155.18
23.6% ret, =$152.99
38.2% ret, =$149.44
Norm (v)=2.618 of (i), =$163.72

1.v.(5)=$132.88 to:
(5)=(1), =$142.81, truncated
(5)=1.618 of (1), =$148.95
(5)=1.618 of (1) + (3), =$163.10, extended
v=i, =$144.18, truncated
v=1.618 of i, =$159.51
v=i+iii, =$208.86

Comment:  1.v.(5).(iv) should complete near 20-day EMA, currently at $147.26.  $160 should be 1.v.(5).(iv).(b).  If AAPL climbs above $160, it is still in 1.v.(5).(iii).

Alternative count:
1.i=$78.20 to $103, length=$24.80.
1.ii=$103.0 to $82.33, ret=83.3%.
1.iii=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.iv=$133.50 to $121.75, ret=22.9%.

1.v.(1)=$121.75 to $146.40, length=$24.65, almost equal 1.
1.v.(2)=$146.40 to $132.88
1.v.(3).(i)=$132.88 to $144.66, length=$11.78
1.v.(3).(ii)=$144.66 to $134.42, ret=86.9%
1.v.(3).(iii)=$134.42 to ...
1.618 of (i), =$153.48
2.618 of (i), =$165.26

1.v=
$146.55, if v=i
$161.88, if v=1.618 of i
$211.22, if v=i+iii

Comment: If AAPL rallies above $163 next week, this count becomes more likely than preferred.  In fact, this weekly chart indicates that AAPL is likely to hit upper channel line at $165.

Conclusion:  AAPL should either be about to enter into a corrective phase lasting two to four months or continue to blast upwards to over $200.  The critical price point is $165.  If can rally above, next significant resistance should be $200.

Thanks Mace for the updated count.

Your post in the options discussion is intriguing - you think it’s very likely for us to see $170 by Sept and $200-230 by Jan OE? Given your above statement, is it correct for me to infer that you think $165 will most likely be tested and broken to the upside?  If so, am wondering what you’re seeing that supports the $170 and $200-230 view?

By the way, I find the Morningstar website very useful in explaining the greeks - just hover the mouse pointer next to the question mark and you’ll get a pretty good explanation.

Lord Farkward - 25 July 2009 07:22 AM

Thanks Mace for the updated count.

Your post in the options discussion is intriguing - you think it’s very likely for us to see $170 by Sept and $200-230 by Jan OE? Given your above statement, is it correct for me to infer that you think $165 will most likely be tested and broken to the upside?  If so, am wondering what you’re seeing that supports the $170 and $200-230 view? ...

Merely infer from max pain and past AAPL behavior.  If alternate count is correct, AAPL would be over $200 by Oct.  Hence, If alternate count is correct, the response should either be hold (conservative stance) or add calls (aggressive stance).  I’m adopting a defensive stance because I’m not sure.  In any case, if either count is correct, AAPL would be $300 some time next year.  Don’t think you know what I don’t like about GREEKs.

Mace - 25 July 2009 11:26 AM

Lord Farkward - 25 July 2009 07:22 AM

Thanks Mace for the updated count.

Your post in the options discussion is intriguing - you think it’s very likely for us to see $170 by Sept and $200-230 by Jan OE? Given your above statement, is it correct for me to infer that you think $165 will most likely be tested and broken to the upside?  If so, am wondering what you’re seeing that supports the $170 and $200-230 view? ...

Merely infer from max pain and past AAPL behavior.  If alternate count is correct, AAPL would be over $200 by Oct.  Hence, If alternate count is correct, the response should either be hold (conservative stance) or add calls (aggressive stance).  I’m adopting a defensive stance because I’m not sure.  In any case, if either count is correct, AAPL would be $300 some time next year.  Don’t think you know what I don’t like about GREEKs.

Mace, does this mean you don’t think aapl is in 1.v.(5).(iv) count anymore?  Do you still see a possible decline to aapl 20-EMA?  Don’t understand how your prediction of 165 upside fit into 1.v.(5).(iv) & possible 20-EMA downside prediction.  Getting confuse here.  Please clarify.