Play Ultimate - 28 September 2009 01:26 PM

Mace - 28 September 2009 01:19 PM

EW update:  Forgot to mention that if $188.90 is broken upwards, AAPL would be in 1.v.(3).

Knowing little about EW, assuming a break up, what would be your estimated target for the end of that wave?

Length of (1)=$24.79.  So min target for completion of wave 1.v.(5) is $204, norm target is $229 and max target is $337 (one can hope ).

omacvi - Max pain thesis is a lag indicator.  It would be interesting to know which indicators would show completion of wave 1 earliest.  Haven’t done such comparison before.  Relevant multi-week trend following indicators are EW, ichimoku cloud (daily price enter the cloud), moving average (13-week EMA turns down), ADX (weekly ADX crosses above DI+), weekly MACD (MACD crosses below signal) and weekly RSI (RSI crosses below 70).  So far, weekly ADX have crossed above DI+ which mean a multi-week correction is about to start.  Btw, in daily chart, RSI and MACD are both bearishly divergent with price.

Assume impulse below is (1) instead of (1)...(5).
1.v.(1)=$164.11 to $174.47
1.v.(2)=$174.47 to $170.25
1.v.(3)=$170.25 to $186.79
1.v.(4)=$186.79 to $181.62
1.v.(5)=$181.62 to $188.90
Length=$24.79

Then possible targets for 1.v.(2) are:
23.6%=$183.05 (min target)
38.2%=$179.43
61.8%=$173.58 (norm used by traders)
76.4%=$169.96

Low so far since $188.90 is $181.44.

“Current pain” for AAPL = 175

willrob - 05 October 2009 10:51 AM

“Current pain” for AAPL = 175

Thank for the info.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Max pain (Oct)=$165, max pain (Nov)=$185 up   $5.00 and max pain (Apr)=$175 same as current pain.

Highest OI (Oct calls)=$200 and OI (Oct puts)=$150.
Highest OI (Nov calls)=$200 up $5.00 and OI (Nov puts)=$170.
Highest OI (Apr calls)=$210 and OI (Apr puts)=$140

CommentWith highest OI (calls) over $200, I’m contemplating opening a vertical spread (Oct calls) $190/$200 position.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Max pain (Oct)=$170 up $5.00, max pain (Nov)=$185 and max pain (Apr)=$175.

Highest OI (Oct calls)=$200 and OI (Oct puts)=$150.
Highest OI (Nov calls)=$200 and OI (Nov puts)=$170.
Highest OI (Apr calls)=$210 and OI (Apr puts)=$140.

Comment  For the past few months, AAPL closed above highest OI (calls).  Will it happen this month?

Current pain=$180.  Highest OI (Oct calls) remains at $200.

Ted multi-day price target is $205.

Mace - 08 October 2009 11:56 AM

Comment  For the past few months, AAPL closed above highest OI (calls).  Will it happen this month?

According to morningstar, highest OI is still $200. But sadly Oct might be the first month where we close below highest OI

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Max pain (Nov)=$185, max pain (Dec)=NA and max pain (Apr)=$175.

Highest OI (Nov calls)=$200 and OI (Nov puts)=$170.
Highest OI (Dec calls)=$185 and OI (Oct puts)=$160.
Highest OI (Apr calls)=$210 and OI (Apr puts)=$140.

Comment:  AAPL closed above max pain (Oct) on OE Friday and hence still in multi-month rally.

Multi-day EW - Either still in wave four or in wave five.  Price target of wave five is around $205.
Multi-month EW - In wave 1.v.iii.(3).  Expect primary degree wave 1 to complete near $230.

Time to consolidate count since Mar 09 .

1.i=$82.33 to $$133.50, length=$51.17.
1.ii=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%.
1.iii=$119.38 to $168.67, length=$49.29
1.iv=$168.67 to 164.11, ret=9.25%
1.v.(1)=$164.11 to $188.90, length=$24.79
1.v.(2)=$188.90 to $180.70, ret=33.1%
1.v.(3).(i)=$180.70 to $192.32, length=$11.62
1.v.(3).(ii)=$192.32 to $185.55, ret=58.3%
1.v.(3).(iii)=$185.55 to possible targets:
(iii)=(i), $197.17 (passed)
(iii)=1.618 of (i), $204.35 (Did AH hit this price?)
...
For extended (iii), norm for (3) is $211.12
...
Max for wave 1 for this count is $213.4

Comment:  1.iii and 1.iv don’t seem right.  Would present alternate count later.

AAPL Current Pain = $195

AAPL Nov Current Pain = $200

willrob - 22 October 2009 03:17 PM

AAPL Nov Current Pain = $200

barring major market meltdown, aapl could see 225 by Christmas.

our max pain has improved considerably in the last two months.

225 seems a little light in the boots Sponge.

If the S&P rallies another 10% to around 1,200 by end of year, Apple should be up 2x that amount, around $250 in my mind.

Of course I thought that back in Dec 2007 as well.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Max pain (Nov)=$190 up $5.00, max pain (Dec)=$120   and max pain (Apr)=$180 up $5.00.
Current pain=$200 , willrob - Have they given up hope of earning from current pain subscription?

Highest OI (Nov calls)=$210 and OI (Nov puts)=$170.
Highest OI (Dec calls)=$200 and OI (Oct puts)=$185.
Highest OI (Apr calls)=$210 and OI (Apr puts)=$170.

Comment:  Let’s hope AAPL would close near highest OI (Nov calls) on OE.

As for EW, I’ve difficulty coming up with a good alternate count.  Instead of alternate count, I would like to point that:

a.  Wave i is from $82.33 to $133.50, length=$51.17.  Norm for wave 1 (=i-ii-iii-iv-v)=$216.29.  Hence, high probability AAPL would be completing wave 1 soon.  Please remember wave 2 retraces 23.6% to 99% of wave 1.  There is no reliable way to determine when wave 1 would be completed or how much wave 2 would retrace.  So, it would be prudent to hedge or prepare to sell quickly.

b. This week, $185.55 to $208.71 is an impulse.  Typical retracements are:
14.6%=$205.33 (min for a wave four type of retracement)
23.6%=$203.24 (min for a wave two type of retracement)
38.2%=$199.86
61.8%=$194.40
Any price lower than $195, is likely that a higher degree impulse is being retraced.

Mace - 23 October 2009 11:56 PM

a.  Wave i is from $82.33 to $133.50, length=$51.17.  Norm for wave 1 (=i-ii-iii-iv-v)=$216.29.  Hence, high probability AAPL would be completing wave 1 soon.  Please remember wave 2 retraces 23.6% to 99% of wave 1.  There is no reliable way to determine when wave 1 would be completed or how much wave 2 would retrace.  So, it would be prudent to hedge or prepare to sell quickly.

Thanks mace for another update!
Just want to clarify - ”  There is no reliable way to determine when wave 1 would be completed or how much wave 2 would retrace”
what’s unclear regarding wave 1 is *when* it’ll stop, right? Or is it even unclear if this is wave 1 at all?  Thanks in advance!