Finally, worked out an alternate count for the primary degree wave 1.  It is an extended fifth wave impulse.

1.i=$78.20 to $103.00, length=$24.80
1.ii=$103.00 to $82.33
1.iii=$82.33 to $133.50, length=$51.17
1.iv=$133.50 to $121.75
1.v.(1)=$121.75 to $146.40
1.v.(2)=$146.40 to $134.42 - wave 2 usually ends inside here or near 52-week EMA.
1.v.(3)=$134.42 to $188.90
1.v.(4)=$188.90 to $185.55 - wave 2.A usually ends inside here or near 13-week EMA.
1.v.(5)=$185.55 to $208.71

Price targets for primary degree wave 2:
23.6% (min)=$177.91
38.2%=$158.85
61.8% (trader’s norm)=$128.05

For option traders, if you can figure out when wave 2 ends, you can make indecent gains, something like 30x to 100x by buying calls at the end of wave 2.  This is exciting.  Anyone want to make a WAG price for wave 2?  Or have a good strategy that don’t depend on accurate price forecast?

Since length of wave 1 is $130.51, min price for wave 5 is $289.36.  Norm is $419.88.

Mace - 31 October 2009 06:37 AM

Finally, worked out an alternate count for the primary degree wave 1.  It is an extended fifth wave impulse.

1.i=$78.20 to $103.00, length=$24.80
1.ii=$103.00 to $82.33
1.iii=$82.33 to $133.50, length=$51.17
1.iv=$133.50 to $121.75
1.v.(1)=$121.75 to $146.40
1.v.(2)=$146.40 to $134.42 - wave 2 usually ends inside here or near 52-week EMA.
1.v.(3)=$134.42 to $188.90
1.v.(4)=$188.90 to $185.55 - wave 2.A usually ends inside here or near 13-week EMA.
1.v.(5)=$185.55 to $208.71

Price targets for primary degree wave 2:
23.6% (min)=$177.91
38.2%=$158.85
61.8% (trader’s norm)=$128.05

For option traders, if you can figure out when wave 2 ends, you can make indecent gains, something like 30x to 100x by buying calls at the end of wave 2.  This is exciting.  Anyone want to make a WAG price for wave 2?  Or have a good strategy that don’t depend on accurate price forecast?

Since length of wave 1 is $130.51, min price for wave 5 is $289.36.  Norm is $419.88.

Mace your downside numbers seem reasonable (Fib?) if AAPL were an average S&P 500 stock. However For AAPL I would tend to adjust them upward as I believe the street will be more a stock picker market as opposed to a sector picker. If you are sitting on cash your scenario is very attractive, The question, as always with Options, is time. WAG?  $158 on the downside…$325 upside hopefully end of 2010.

Ted’s insanely bullish call.  Watch those levels mentioned.  If those hold, instead of a correction, an even monstrous rally than since Mar would ensue.  For AAPL, if $185.55 holds and a new ATH is established, min target is $230+ with a possibility of charging straight for $300.  Place your bet.

Mace - 02 November 2009 03:27 AM

Ted’s insanely bullish call.  Watch those levels mentioned.  If those hold, instead of a correction, an even monstrous rally than since Mar would ensue.  For AAPL, if $185.55 holds and a new ATH is established, min target is $230+ with a possibility of charging straight for $300.  Place your bet.

Mace, I like the way you think.  I’m gonna keep an eye on you….

Mercel - 02 November 2009 03:37 AM

Mace - 02 November 2009 03:27 AM

Ted’s insanely bullish call.  Watch those levels mentioned.  If those hold, instead of a correction, an even monstrous rally than since Mar would ensue.  For AAPL, if $185.55 holds and a new ATH is established, min target is $230+ with a possibility of charging straight for $300.  Place your bet.

Mace, I like the way you think.  I’m gonna keep an eye on you….

Mace is SUCH a teaser…..........

EDIT: Oooooh we hit a low of $185.57 today and shot back up.  What does it mean what does it mean OMG OMG

Mace - 02 November 2009 03:27 AM

Ted’s insanely bullish call.  Watch those levels mentioned.  If those hold, instead of a correction, an even monstrous rally than since Mar would ensue.  For AAPL, if $185.55 holds and a new ATH is established, min target is $230+ with a possibility of charging straight for $300.  Place your bet.

thanks Mace I bought back a lot of my short leaps this am and bot some Nov ITM’s and Dec ATM’s ..Just finished watching the video and tell us how accurate has Ted been over the time you have been following him?

SNIPUS - 02 November 2009 12:00 PM

... Just finished watching the video and tell us how accurate has Ted been over the time you have been following him?

I read his site for another view and didn’t evaluate his trades.  I also follow Hussman who has fully hedged his position.  Though AAPL re-bounced from $185.55 but it met resistance in the $192-$196 price (Recall I said dead cat bounce to this price zone?) too.  One thing for sure is breaking below $185.55 means wave 2.  Insanely bullish scenario can have a shot only if $196.81 is recaptured.  So far, $185.57 to $192.88 (Asians like this auspicious number) is a zigzag.  So is $192.88 to $187.08 (another nice number that Asians like).  In conclusion, bears and bulls are still fighting it out.  We just have to watch which one breaks, $185.55 or $196.81.

Mercel - I don’t think.  I merely guessing what market might be thinking.

Ok skeptic question: what would be wrong with 1.v.(3)=$160 (aprox) to $208.71?
Or even 1.iii=$135 (aprox) to $208.71?
[edit: sorry I meant 1.iii.(3).(iii) there.]

(Clearly, I want to postpone this wave 2 indefinitely. I’m sure EW can come up with a solution…)

deagol - 04 November 2009 04:59 PM

Ok skeptic question: what would be wrong with 1.v.(3)=$160 (aprox) to $208.71?
Or even 1.iii=$135 (aprox) to $208.71?
[edit: sorry I meant 1.iii.(3).(iii) there.]

(Clearly, I want to postpone this wave 2 indefinitely. I’m sure EW can come up with a solution…)

Comments on your count:
1.v.(3)=$160 (aprox) to $208.71 - $180.70 to $208.71 is a zigzag. It has to be an impulse for this count to be true.
1.iii.(3).(iii) - Sorry, couldn’t comment.  Too hard to tell what you mean without detailed lower degree counts.

The number of subdivisions are so numerous that you can come up with as many possible counts as you can imagine.  Moreover, I’m not sure wave 1 origin from $78.20 or $82.33.  $78.20 to $103.00 looks more like a zigzag than an impulse.  So, wave 1 should originate from $82.33.  For prudence, I work out two counts.  One originate from $82.33 (preferred) and one originate from $78.20 (alternate).  Nonetheless, I believe it is more likely that wave 1 has completed.

Mace - 04 November 2009 07:53 PM

Comments on your count:
1.v.(3)=$160 (aprox) to $208.71 - $180.70 to $208.71 is a zigzag. It has to be an impulse for this count to be true.
1.iii.(3).(iii) - Sorry, couldn’t comment.  Too hard to tell what you mean without detailed lower degree counts.

Sorry if I was vague before. Here are rough charts of those: 1.v.(3) and 1.iii.(3).(iii).

Just did those intuitively without checking for all those obscure rules, so I’m just curious if valid.

I see what you mean about $78 to $103 looking like a zig-zag. So then both of these would be alternate starting at $78.

deagol - 04 November 2009 10:47 PM

... rough charts of those: 1.v.(3) and 1.iii.(3).(iii) ...

Thank you for the charts.  Both are possible.

If wave 1 originates from $78.20, we would have:
wave i=$78.20 to $103.00
wave ii=$103.00 to $82.33
wave iii=$82.33 to $133.50
wave iv=$133.50 to $119.38
Possible targets of wave 5 would be:
wave v=wave i, =$144.18, wave 1 is an extended third wave impulse
wave v=1.618 of wave i, =$159.51, wave 1 is an extended third wave impulse
wave v=1.618 of wave i+iii, =$208.86 : wave 1 is an extended fifth wave impulse
Since $208.71 is just pennies below $208.86, this count is highly likely i.e. wave 1 has completed.  Moreover, $208.71 to $185.57 feels like an impulse.  So, a zigzag bringing AAPL from $185.57 to $199.86 max won’t surprise me.

Max pain thesis:  So long AAPL closes above max pain on OE Friday, AAPL is in a multi-month rally. It usually closes near highest OI (calls) when in multi-month rally and near highest OI (puts) when in multi-month decline.

Max pain (Nov)=$190, max pain (Dec)=$195 and max pain (Apr)=$185
Current pain=$195

Highest OI (Nov calls)=$200 and OI (Nov puts)=$185.
Highest OI (Dec calls)=$200 and OI (Oct puts)=$180.
Highest OI (Apr calls)=$210 and OI (Apr puts)=$140.

Comment: Would AAPL close near highest OI (Nov calls) or OI(Nov puts)?

EW:  Breaking above $196.81 without breaking below $185.55 increased the probability of this short-term count:
wave one=$185.55 to $208.71
wave two=$208.71 to $185.57
wave three=$185.57 to ...
=wave one, $208.73
=1.618 of wave one=$223.04

Edit:
Ted’s best case scenario=$400max
worst case scenario=$275max
Link

Mace - 02 November 2009 03:27 AM

Ted’s insanely bullish call.  Watch those levels mentioned.  If those hold, instead of a correction, an even monstrous rally than since Mar would ensue.  For AAPL, if $185.55 holds and a new ATH is established, min target is $230+ with a possibility of charging straight for $300.  Place your bet.

Mace - now that we did bounce off ~$185.55 twice, hovered at $192-194 for a while and broke $196 as if it was nothing, do you think we’ll see an ATH soon?

Lord Farkward - 12 November 2009 09:17 PM

Mace - 02 November 2009 03:27 AM

Ted’s insanely bullish call.  Watch those levels mentioned.  If those hold, instead of a correction, an even monstrous rally than since Mar would ensue.  For AAPL, if $185.55 holds and a new ATH is established, min target is $230+ with a possibility of charging straight for $300.  Place your bet.

Mace - now that we did bounce off ~$185.55 twice, hovered at $192-194 for a while and broke $196 as if it was nothing, do you think we’ll see an ATH soon?

Ted thinks so.  I’m not sure given inability of S&P 500 to stay above 1100 and VIX poises to increase dramatically soon.

If Primary degree wave 1 originates from $78.20, it is an extended fifth wave impulse with following lower degree counts:

1.i=$78.20 to $103.00, length=$24.80
1.ii=$103.00 to $82.33, ret=83.3%
1.iii=$82.33 to $133.50, length=$51.17
1.iv=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%
1.v.(1)=$119.38 to $172.49
1.v.(2)=$172.49 to $164.11 - wave 2 usually ends inside here or near 52-week EMA.
1.v.(3)=$164.11 to $188.90
1.v.(4)=$188.90 to $185.55 - wave 2.A usually ends inside here or near 13-week EMA.
1.v.(5)=$185.55 to $208.71
Note: Many possible counts for 1.v.  Merely stating the more optimistic count.

Price targets for primary degree wave 2:
23.6% (min)=$177.91
38.2%=$158.85
61.8% (trader’s norm)=$128.05

Since length of wave 1 is $130.51, min price for wave 5 is $289.36.  Norm is $419.88.

If Primary degree wave 1 originates from $82.33, count is:
1.i=$82.33 to $133.50, length=$51.17
1.ii=$133.50 to $119.38, ret=27.6%
1.iii=$119.38 to $208.71, length=$89.33
1.iv=$208.71 to:
14.6% ret=$195.68
23.6% ret=$187.63
38.2% ret=$174.59
50.0% ret=$164.05

Comment:  Over the next few weeks, AAPL is likely to decline to at least 40-day EMA, most likely breaking slightly below 13-week EMA to $178.