Mace,

Frankly, I am trying to ride two horses, or a bull and a bear , My bet was 4th was over and 5th will show its face today, but… seems Market prefers to ignore bad news: Madoff 50B bill, Toshiba stoping production, GS warnings on AAPL, 2M oil barrels cut. Can you image that news 4-6 weks ago: 5% down on S&P an Nasdaq should be “natural”. Today: look at INTC, going on new highs all day long, not to talk about MOS or POT. What kind of world are we living in than you can not trust a good and healthy bear market! 

chinabox - 16 December 2008 02:05 PM

Mace,

Frankly, I am trying to ride two horses, or a bull and a bear , My bet was 4th was over and 5th will show its face today, but… seems Market prefers to ignore bad news: Madoff 50B bill, Toshiba stoping production, GS warnings on AAPL, 2M oil barrels cut. Can you image that news 4-6 weks ago: 5% down on S&P an Nasdaq should be “natural”. Today: look at INTC, going on new highs all day long, not to talk about MOS or POT. What kind of world are we living in than you can not trust a good and healthy bear market! 

Are you a descendant of Genghis Khan?

$92.75 to $96.48 looks like an impulse.
$96.48 to $94s looks like a wave two ret.
So in wave three .
If tomorrow goes up, might be able to close above $95 on OE.  $100 would be a solid confirmation.  Let’s pray.
As to why analysts are downgrading now, either they’re following each other or attempt to pin it below $95.  Latter is bullish.

Mace - 16 December 2008 04:19 PM

chinabox - 16 December 2008 02:05 PM

Mace,

Frankly, I am trying to ride two horses, or a bull and a bear , My bet was 4th was over and 5th will show its face today, but… seems Market prefers to ignore bad news: Madoff 50B bill, Toshiba stoping production, GS warnings on AAPL, 2M oil barrels cut. Can you image that news 4-6 weks ago: 5% down on S&P an Nasdaq should be “natural”. Today: look at INTC, going on new highs all day long, not to talk about MOS or POT. What kind of world are we living in than you can not trust a good and healthy bear market! 

Are you a descendant of Genghis Khan?

$92.75 to $96.48 looks like an impulse.
$96.48 to $94s looks like a wave two ret.
So in wave three .
If tomorrow goes up, might be able to close above $95 on OE.  $100 would be a solid confirmation.  Let’s pray.
As to why analysts are downgrading now, either they’re following each other or attempt to pin it below $95.  Latter is bullish.

IMPULSE!? What impulse? Your wave 1 has a pathetic (iii) and a (iv) that overlaps wave (i). Probably an A with a C to come—part of a larger complex double or triple zigzag corrrection. Even if AAPL rockets to $112 it would still look like a correction to me.

chinabox - 16 December 2008 02:05 PM

... My bet was 4th was over and 5th will show its face today ...

Are you expecting a regular or truncated 5th wave?

VIX chart is bearish.  Shouldn’t equity market be bullish?

0% Fed rate is interesting.  Only speculation from here is to stay or goes up .  Also, does this mean Dollar crisis or Dollar carry trade?

Mace - 17 December 2008 11:59 AM

chinabox - 16 December 2008 02:05 PM

... My bet was 4th was over and 5th will show its face today ...

Are you expecting a regular or truncated 5th wave?

VIX chart is bearish.  Shouldn’t equity market be bullish?
...

Truncated 5th, intraday seems turning up…
VIX is in 5th, could go al low as 48 lower if throw-over… below 50 right now

It is rather obvious now that all this garbage from the $79 low is merely an A-B-C correction. Whether it is just the first part of a larger corrective wave remains to be seen.

I personally believe that this could be a D wave of a larger ending diagonal. We are now in the E wave down if this is correct.

Based on trend lines and my PPPS (Proprietary Price Projection System), they both show a probable guesstimation at this point of around $74. MY PPPS also has a built-in invalidation. If AAPL makes it to $95 tomorrow this projection would be invalid.

cramar,

I can see $94s, above will be surprising

VIX declines to 45-40 zone as expected.  Ted is expecting a pop.  So far, market is whimpering.  What give?

chinabox and cramar,

One of you post your EW chart plz.  $79.14 to $103.60 is a zigzag.  So, what is the count from $85 to now?  I can’t see how is it that C.iv has completed ... shouldn’t AAPL in C.iv.d?  $85 to $116.40=a, $116.40 to $79.14=b, $79.14 to $103.60=c.

Mace - 18 December 2008 11:41 AM

VIX declines to 45-40 zone as expected.  Ted is expecting a pop.  So far, market is whimpering.  What give?

chinabox and cramar,

One of you post your EW chart plz.  $79.14 to $103.60 is a zigzag.  So, what is the count from $85 to now?  I can’t see how is it that C.iv has completed ... shouldn’t AAPL in C.iv.d?  $85 to $116.40=a, $116.40 to $79.14=b, $79.14 to $103.60=c.

Did you remember the Jan construction we made a comparison few days ago? I post here an update. You can see AAPL is at 50% of that channel. Your (our?) a-b-c is there. My trouble with that a-b-c is the peak down to $85.89, after $116.40 (before $112.19)... Can we ignore it?, I mean: if the channel is valid (and I think it is) we can count again from $85.00m, and we get a-b-c-d-e, ending at $103.60…

About VIX, first will resume my first count
” ...
81.48 to 50.50 is impulse, and 1 or a
50.50 to 68.28, impulse
68.28 to 60.18, zigzag… or, better 68.28 to 60.21 d. zigzag
60.21 to 66.54, impulse, and we got 2 as abc, right?
66.54 to 56.37, impulse, 1st for 3
56.37 to in progress, w1 seems impulse, could it be for another abc, lower degree…

IMO, all this points to another abc for 3.ii, and the down pattern should keep on going during weeks
...”

53s was 3.iii
58s was 3.iv
now in 3.v, seems expanded 3rd,

Thoughts?

chinabox,

AAPL:  If $103.60 is e, then AAPL is in C.v, a bearish impulse that would bring AAPL to $74s.  So far, the decline feels corrective rather than impulsive.  Only corrective-feeling impulse is an ending diagonal ... can’t figure out the diagonal.

As for VIX, hard to count EW waves.  Technicals are bearish, see chart.  So should continue to decline.  If $81.48 is a truncated fifth wave, can decline to below 30.

Mace - 18 December 2008 12:51 PM

chinabox,

AAPL:  If $103.60 is e, then AAPL is in C.v, a bearish impulse that would bring AAPL to $74s.  So far, the decline feels corrective rather than impulsive.  Only corrective-feeling impulse is an ending diagonal ... can’t figure out the diagonal.
...

So, your bet is for “fractal” figure from Jan, breaking $95, $103s and $111s

chinabox - 18 December 2008 12:59 PM

Mace - 18 December 2008 12:51 PM

chinabox,

AAPL:  If $103.60 is e, then AAPL is in C.v, a bearish impulse that would bring AAPL to $74s.  So far, the decline feels corrective rather than impulsive.  Only corrective-feeling impulse is an ending diagonal ... can’t figure out the diagonal.
...

So, your bet is for “fractal” figure from Jan, breaking $95, $103s and $111s

My bet is C.iv.d is part of a triangle d,e,f,g,h,i.  AAPL trading sideways for another month or two before C.v down.  Interpreting using fundamentals,  sideways to MWSF/earnings then down big because GAAP earnings would be BAD though non-GAAP is ok.

yahooooooo!

Max pain (dec) is $90.  Watch the closing price.

Ding ding ding ding ding ding ding ding diiiinnnnnngggggggg !!!!

Christmas time is over and Happy New Year is far away

Will wait till Three Wizard Kings?, ... or all you out there are sons of the new faith?  ($$$ $$$)

My (small and greedy) wish is AAPL above $87.87 for Tuesday
. .

Happy Brand New Year for all of you! ...and everyone at the Mac Observer and AFB staff: Thanks, thanks and thanks again!