Short-term EW for AAPL:
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$16.42.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret, completed?
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $91.90. Length=$5.40.
(iii).[2]=$91.90 to ... 61.8% ret is $88.56.
(iii).[3] now?
Consolidated past observations for easy reference:
C=Bearish impulse from $192.24 to $79.14. Fifth wave of C=$112.19 to $79.14.
If fifth wave of C is an ending diagonal, AAPL would be rejected at $95, $105 or $112 and establishes a new low of $66. Chart.
If it is not an ending diagonal, the relevant resistances based on fib ratios of $202.96 to $79.14 are: $126, $141 and $155. Chart.
Likely scenario is wave X peaking between $160 to $200. Miracle (for those believing in Neo) is beginning of Cycle V.
Is 81.45 of VIX a truncated wave 5 and is in a multi-month downtrend?
[ Edited: 28 February 2010 12:44 PM by DawnTreader ]
Refreshing my understanding of ending diagonal, I noted that all waves are zigzags. Since $112.19 to $79.14 is an impulse (chinabox, cramar and all Elliotticans, please don’t tell me is a zigzag), fifth wave of C can’t be an ending diagonal. That is, $79.14 is indeed the bottom for now ... now because after wave X is another bearish impulse Y which bring AAPL to between $70 to $50 unless miracle occurs.
Refreshing my understanding of ending diagonal, I noted that all waves are zigzags. Since $112.19 to $79.14 is an impulse (chinabox, cramar and all Elliotticans, please don’t tell me is a zigzag), fifth wave of C can’t be an ending diagonal. That is, $79.14 is indeed the bottom for now ... now because after wave X is another bearish impulse Y which bring AAPL to between $70 to $50 unless miracle occurs.
Having difficulty without a labeled diagram of trying to figure out exactly what you are talking about. I note that the DOW (and S&P) look to have traced out a different pattern than AAPL. Dow looks more like a triangle with a thrust down to complete the wave structure. AAPL looks different. From the Oct 10th bottom until the $112.19 peak is clearly 3 waves—probably an irregular flat. I agree that $112.19 to $79.14 is an impulsive 5-wave structure. I maintain that it is a complete 5th to end the move down from $180. Hence we have seen the bottom and $79.14 is it! At least this is the most probable interpretation, IMHO. However if this is wrong and there is another wave down, treadlines and projections at this time indicate not much below $75. I am going with my preferred interpretation until proven otherwise.
... I maintain that it is a complete 5th to end the move down from $180 ...
Notice you keep saying the impulse began from $180 while I (and chinabox?) have always said is from $192.24. Referring to this daily chart, the waves for impulse C=12345 is 1=$192.24 to $146.53, 2=$146.53 to $180.45, 3=$180.45 to $85, 4=$85 to $112.19, 5=$112.19 to $79.14.
I didn’t see any triangle in this SPX chart. Same abc, 3-wave structure as AAPL, then a bearish impulse.
Most of my posts continues from previous posts, so you need to read past posts. Always including past posts into current posts can lead to long post. Other than short-term EW, higher counts have not changed at all for moons. Occasionally, I consolidate for easy reference e.g. Dec 2, 12.08 pm PST post.
Mace wote:
“Notice you keep saying the impulse began from $180 while I (and chinabox?) have always said is from $192.24. Referring to this daily chart, the waves for impulse C=12345 is 1=$192.24 to $146.53, 2=$146.53 to $180.45, 3=$180.45 to $85, 4=$85 to $112.19, 5=$112.19 to $79.14.
...”
$180.45 or $192.24? goooood question!
I am going on with both counts, BUT, if you look at this chart you must agree with me the $180.45 theory is more clearly drawn, or, at least, it is hard to plot the channel from $192.24. That channel (cyan on chart) was drawn when AAPL touched $111.79, so you can see market is taking it into account. You can see EMA7 and MA20 are right there, and CMF is not improving from $79.14, ITOH volume was nice yesterday. IMO, all this means the moment is important… a sideways movement could be enough to turn sentiment
Obviously the same sideways movement can open the door for one longer 4th from $192.24, and 5th will happen 2 to 3 months later… mmmhh, in coincidence with some very bad earnings?
... I maintain that it is a complete 5th to end the move down from $180 ...
Notice you keep saying the impulse began from $180 while I (and chinabox?) have always said is from $192.24. Referring to this daily chart, the waves for impulse C=12345 is 1=$192.24 to $146.53, 2=$146.53 to $180.45, 3=$180.45 to $85, 4=$85 to $112.19, 5=$112.19 to $79.14.
Yes, I have to agree. I should have said from $192.24. It looks like a complete 5-wave sequence from there.
Mace - 02 December 2008 11:36 PM
I didn’t see any triangle in this SPX chart. Same abc, 3-wave structure as AAPL, then a bearish impulse.
Again I have to agree that the S&P looks more like a classic flat and not a triangle. It however does not in anyway alter the larger wave count nor where we are today.
The only major disagreement we have Mace is that you keep referring to this whole wave stucture from $192 to $79 as a C wave of a larger A-B-C from the $200 peak. I maintain that it may NOT be a C (that ends the correction), but part of something much bigger and longer. I hope you are right for it means that AAPL could go to that $250 peak everyone is hoping for. To me having a large A-B-C flat off of that high in a 4th wave position is just too perfect, textbook, and simple. I am skeptical. I think it will morph into something much longer and more complex. Four waves are almost always complex.
... The only major disagreement we have Mace is that you keep referring to this whole wave stucture from $192 to $79 as a C wave of a larger A-B-C from the $200 peak. I maintain that it may NOT be a C (that ends the correction), but part of something much bigger and longer. I hope you are right for it means that AAPL could go to that $250 peak everyone is hoping for. To me having a large A-B-C flat off of that high in a 4th wave position is just too perfect, textbook, and simple. I am skeptical. I think it will morph into something much longer and more complex. Four waves are almost always complex.
You may want to re-read my past posts e.g. Dec 2, 12:08 PST’s post . I’ve always said the most likely scenario is W=ABC from $180 (Oct 07 not Dec 07) to $79. Then wave X. Then dreadful wave Y. You could be mixing up what Juan’s said about SPY with AAPL. Btw, $250 is Gene Munster’s target.
Few days ago, I request you to tell us the start and end price including date of wave three for the uncompleted wave four ... you tell me something else. AAPL has retraced 50% of any impulse from 0 to $203 and hence has to be a wave two, I presume is a retracement of the impulse $6.36 to $180s (or $203). I’ve always think $180s (Oct 07) is the peak not $203 (Dec 07) since Oct 07 .
Mace wote:
“Notice you keep saying the impulse began from $180 while I (and chinabox?) have always said is from $192.24. Referring to this daily chart, the waves for impulse C=12345 is 1=$192.24 to $146.53, 2=$146.53 to $180.45, 3=$180.45 to $85, 4=$85 to $112.19, 5=$112.19 to $79.14.
...”
$180.45 or $192.24? goooood question!
I am going on with both counts, BUT, if you look at this chart you must agree with me the $180.45 theory is more clearly drawn, or, at least, it is hard to plot the channel from $192.24 ...
Your channel indicates clearly impulse should start from $192.24. Usually peaks of wave one and three or wave three and wave five is parallel with completion of wave two and four.
Short-term EW for AAPL - An update
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret, completed?
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $91.90. Length=$5.40.
(iii).[2]=$91.90 to ... 61.8% ret is $88.56.
(iii).[3] now? Currently stalled at $88.56+$5.40=$94 . However, look like a wave four, so expect to break above $94. 10:09 am PST update: Only $94.50 . Again wave four of a degree higher, should decline not lower than $92.50 and then up above $94.50.
Short-term EW for AAPL - An update
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret, completed?
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $91.90. Length=$5.40.
(iii).[2]=$91.90 to ... 61.8% ret is $88.56.
(iii).[3] now? Currently stalled at $88.56+$5.40=$94 . However, look like a wave four, so expect to break above $94.
Your channel indicates clearly impulse should start from $192.24. Usually peaks of wave one and three or wave three and wave five is parallel with completion of wave two and four.
See bold text at the quote
Thank you to point out the rule for w1-w3 and w3-w5 peaks, I was so concentrated on the “current” channel that I forgot the whole 12345 impulsive wave structure. Happy to think about the entire pattern again, because I can see it with more clarity: that cyan channel down in my past chart should be broken soon (today?) and $105 is right there. Two options in my mind:
a) AAPL into w4, and sideways for weeks. $110s and $84s will be the range. w5 far away
b) AAPL into w5:
b1) Rally to $105s, where BB and EMA50 will stop it, around 1.000 of i or a, 2nd of w5
b2) or keep on going to $112s, just below 1.618 of a, 2nd of w5
b3) abobe $112s, and
c) None of this, w5 was $112s to $79s, AAPL into w1 for D/X or Cycle w3 (supposing $79s was Cycle w2)
a) AAPL into w4, and sideways for weeks. $110s and $84s will be the range. w5 far away
b) AAPL into w5:
b1) Rally to $105s, where BB and EMA50 will stop it, around 1.000 of i or a, 2nd of w5
b2) or keep on going to $112s, just below 1.618 of a, 2nd of w5
b3) abobe $112s, and
c) None of this, w5 was $112s to $79s, AAPL into w1 for D/X or Cycle w3 (supposing $79s was Cycle w2)
Two or three options? Whether recession is going to be long and deep or medium and shallow is in the hands of Obama and his team. All these possibilities are reflected as options.
Wow, too optimistic short-term EW reading. AAPL went below $92.50. Don’t tell me is a zigzag, abc, from $86.50 ... was hoping for a w123 pattern.
a) AAPL into w4, and sideways for weeks. $110s and $84s will be the range. w5 far away
b) AAPL into w5:
b1) Rally to $105s, where BB and EMA50 will stop it, around 1.000 of i or a, 2nd of w5
b2) or keep on going to $112s, just below 1.618 of a, 2nd of w5
b3) abobe $112s, and
c) None of this, w5 was $112s to $79s, AAPL into w1 for D/X or Cycle w3 (supposing $79s was Cycle w2)
Two or three options? Whether recession is going to be long and deep or medium and shallow is in the hands of Obama and his team. All these possibilities are reflected as options.
Wow, too optimistic short-term EW reading. AAPL went below $92.50. Don’t tell me is a zigzag, abc, from $86.50 ... was hoping for a w123 pattern.
Just corrective patterns. BTW, thinking we need to look at closing prices to get it, and it is hard: subminuette and lower degrees do not follow EWT rules by themselves, IMHO the only way is pack it together for a better understanding… I am pretty sure there was something about it somewhere into theoretical reading
Short-term EW for AAPL - An update
(i) or a=$79.14 to $94.79 (PM price is $95.56). Length=$15.65.
(ii) or b=$94.79 to $86.50, 50.5% ret, completed?
In (iii) or c. Obviously, targets for c are $95, $105 or $112.
(iii).[1]=$86.50 to $91.90. Length=$5.40.
(iii).[2]=$91.90 to ... 61.8% ret is $88.56.
(iii).[3] now? Currently stalled at $88.56+$5.40=$94 . However, look like a wave four, so expect to break above $94. 10:09 am PST update: Only $94.50 . Again wave four of a degree higher, should decline not lower than $92.50 and then up above $94.50. 11:56 am PST update: Went below $92.50 and bottom at $91.33, current HoD is $95.08, above $94.50. The BIG question is what is $95.08? Is the third jab at $95 since Nov 25, please succeed .
chinabox - 03 December 2008 02:06 PM
... we need to look at closing prices to get it, and it is hard: subminuette and lower degrees do not follow EWT rules by themselves, IMHO the only way is pack it together for a better understanding… I am pretty sure there was something about it somewhere into theoretical reading ...
This limits use of EW for day trading. Btw, do you agree that price always retraces to previous wave four? If this is true and $85 to $112.19 is a wave four, doesn’t this mean AAPL would eventually retrace to $112 (regardless of what happen after that)?
... The only major disagreement we have Mace is that you keep referring to this whole wave stucture from $192 to $79 as a C wave of a larger A-B-C from the $200 peak. I maintain that it may NOT be a C (that ends the correction), but part of something much bigger and longer. I hope you are right for it means that AAPL could go to that $250 peak everyone is hoping for. To me having a large A-B-C flat off of that high in a 4th wave position is just too perfect, textbook, and simple. I am skeptical. I think it will morph into something much longer and more complex. Four waves are almost always complex.
You may want to re-read my past posts e.g. Dec 2, 12:08 PST’s post . I’ve always said the most likely scenario is W=ABC from $180 (Oct 07 not Dec 07) to $79. Then wave X. Then dreadful wave Y. You could be mixing up what Juan’s said about SPY with AAPL. Btw, $250 is Gene Munster’s target.
Okay I get yah now. Other than I don’t buy the Oct 07 peak (flat out disagree), here is what is wrong with your prognostication. X-Y-Z only occurs in triple-three corrections—-either triple-zigzags or triple-flats. I rule this out as not being realistic for the following reasons:
1) No Elliott expert I’ve ever come across in the last 30 years has ever correctly predicted a triple three correction in advance. NEVER-EVER! (Why not a double three?) Predicting a reliable pattern in advance is difficult enough. The odds of successfully predicting the most complex EW corrective pattern is infinitesimal.
3) One expert I was just reading said that they only occur in 4th waves and last from 1 to 2 years, typically 18 months. Since your X wave has taken over a year, and X-Y-Z waves tend to be symmetrical in time, an over 3-year correction seems unrealistic.
Mace - 03 December 2008 10:29 AM
Few days ago, I request you to tell us the start and end price including date of wave three for the uncompleted wave four ... you tell me something else. AAPL has retraced 50% of any impulse from 0 to $203 and hence has to be a wave two, I presume is a retracement of the impulse $6.36 to $180s (or $203). I’ve always think $180s (Oct 07) is the peak not $203 (Dec 07) since Oct 07 .
Cycle wave I started 1997.5 until early 2000 and ended around $38. Wave II took until late 2002 and ended around $5-$6. Thus began Cycle wave III in late 2002 and ended in Dec 2007 at $203. I can see five clear waves in III, with Primary 1 ending at around $45 in early 2005, Primary 3 ending early 2006, then a parabolic blow-off Primary 5 ending in Dec. 2007. So far, Cycle wave IV has traced out a simple A-B-C, but has not violated EW principle by entering the territory of Cycle I at $38, nor even Primary 1 at $45!
So under this interpretation, there SHOULD be a Cycle V that would last a couple of years and take AAPL to the $200+ range. I emphasize “should” since a couple of years of super bull would require the total co-operation of the broad markets. I’m not holding by breath! The simple A-B-C IV could easily morph into something else.
Now having said the above, I don’t like the looks of Cycle II (too long). This flags to me that something else much more bearish might be going on here.
I never answered you on the wave two idea because it implies that the following 3-4-5 waves (which would take decades) would carry the price into the $thousands. Based on a Grand Supercycle collapse, Kondratieff Winter, and things you are not even aware of, I hold that to be so unrealistic that it wasn’t worth commenting on.
... we need to look at closing prices to get it, and it is hard: subminuette and lower degrees do not follow EWT rules by themselves, IMHO the only way is pack it together for a better understanding… I am pretty sure there was something about it somewhere into theoretical reading ...
This limits use of EW for day trading. Btw, do you agree that price always retraces to previous wave four? If this is true and $85 to $112.19 is a wave four, doesn’t this mean AAPL would eventually retrace to $112 (regardless of what happen after that)?
Mace, $85 to $112.19 as wave 4 is just what… how to say it… just not sure it is the complete wave 4: I look this pattern in a horizontal mirror (suppose my MacBook Pro keyboard is the mirror), also “erase” the log scale and I get the picture as in a bull market. After this, simply, the shape does not match, that $85.89 after $116.40 is weird for abc or whatever, really, not sure about it… anyway, going back to my scenarios, I can see AAPL going to $112 and above, this was b3) and 3rd of 2 options in my post ;-D
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. I’ve always said the most likely scenario is W=ABC from $180 (Oct 07 not Dec 07) to $79. Then wave X. Then dreadful wave Y. You could be mixing up what Juan’s said about SPY with AAPL. Btw, $250 is Gene Munster’s target.
. However, look like a wave four, so expect to break above $94. 10:09 am PST update: Only $94.50 
. Again wave four of a degree higher, should decline not lower than $92.50 and then up above $94.50.
$92.50 and bottom at $91.33, current HoD is $95.08, above 
$94.50. The BIG question is what is $95.08? Is the third jab at $95 since Nov 25, please succeed 
.
keyboard is the mirror), also “erase” the log scale and I get the picture as in a bull market. After this, simply, the shape does not match, that $85.89 after $116.40 is weird for abc or whatever, really, not sure about it… anyway, going back to my scenarios, I can see AAPL going to $112 and above, this was b3) and 3rd of 2 options in my post ;-D
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