Hello again

cramar,

I do not follow DJ, I prefer NDX and SPX: can you see different counts from 1286.01 and 943.85 (Jan 6 highs)? or could it be into 3rd of w3 in both cases?, if so, does 942.14 seems to you a failed 5th?, I think it could be an ending expanding diagonal, what is very rare…

For AAPL, I am waiting for support around $87 to confirm a channel up from $79.14 (joint $79.14, $84.72 and $85.16)

chinabox - 12 January 2009 12:42 PM

Hello again

cramar,

I do not follow DJ, I prefer NDX and SPX: can you see different counts from 1286.01 and 943.85 (Jan 6 highs)? or could it be into 3rd of w3 in both cases?, if so, does 942.14 seems to you a failed 5th?, I think it could be an ending expanding diagonal, what is very rare…

For AAPL, I am waiting for support around $87 to confirm a channel up from $79.14 (joint $79.14, $84.72 and $85.16)

I haven’t tried to analyse NDX or SPX in detail, but they look similar to DJ. This current drop does not look or feel like a 3rd of a 3rd—yet! It would have opened with a significant gap and the Dow would be down 400 in high volume by now instead of 90. Could still be just the beginning of the 3rd. If so then tomorrow should be wicked and last several days. Or it is something else? Regardless all indexes look in a bad position, at the bottom of weak upward trend channel, and major technicals are ready to turn ugly.

SPX 942 could be a failed 5th. My projection showed it should have ideally reached 948 at least. It could be an ending expanding diagonal (which is extremely bearish), but I don’t care! It peaked and that is all that really matters.

I was shocked that AAPL did not punch through the 4th touch of the top of the channel at $97. Since it seems to be heading down to $87 channel support as you say, I think the possibility is great that it will slice through this time (after a brief stop) and head down to test the $79 low. That will probably fail too if the broad markets are collapsing.

P.S. While typing this Dow is collapsing so maybe it is beginning! WIth a bad close today, tomorrow could be brutal!

cramar - 12 January 2009 02:10 PM

chinabox - 12 January 2009 12:42 PM

Hello again

cramar,

I do not follow DJ, I prefer NDX and SPX: can you see different counts from 1286.01 and 943.85 (Jan 6 highs)? or could it be into 3rd of w3 in both cases?, if so, does 942.14 seems to you a failed 5th?, I think it could be an ending expanding diagonal, what is very rare…

For AAPL, I am waiting for support around $87 to confirm a channel up from $79.14 (joint $79.14, $84.72 and $85.16)

...
SPX 942 could be a failed 5th. My projection showed it should have ideally reached 948 at least. It could be an ending expanding diagonal (which is extremely bearish), but I don’t care! It peaked and that is all that really matters.

I was shocked that AAPL did not punch through the 4th touch of the top of the channel at $97. Since it seems to be heading down to $87 channel support as you say, I think the possibility is great that it will slice through this time (after a brief stop) and head down to test the $79 low. That will probably fail too if the broad markets are collapsing.
...

The $87s channel theory is gone with the wind…

I am trying to understand the ending and leading diagonal since there are a lot of stocks showing constructions that can be read as this. One thing I do not remember was the leading diagonal 5-3-5-3-5 can appear in wave 1 and wave A of zigzags: very interesting to take into account when thinks start to be weird in 3rd wave subdivisions, i.e. overlapping 4th followed by short impulses than “do not match” what you are expecting, and “surprising” sharp corrections, that seems to invalidate the count. I think it worth to revisit textbooks…

chinabox,

What I am afraid is AAPL could be tracing a triangular wave four from $85 (Oct 08) which mean a parabolic fifth wave down has not occurred yet ... target could be as low as $50.  Very ominous price behavior so far.

Interesting… I had figured $60 as the ultimate low, but could see $55.

Mace - 13 January 2009 02:57 PM

chinabox,

What I am afraid is AAPL could be tracing a triangular wave four from $85 (Oct 08) which mean a parabolic fifth wave down has not occurred yet ... target could be as low as $50.  Very ominous price behavior so far.

Mace, can you post the count for this triangular wave four?; In my preferred count I am suposing fifth wave could had started at $103.60 (Dec 9), after abcde, but I will accept every idea

chinabox,

Refer to this daily chart:

a=$85 to $116.40
b=$116.40 to $79.14
c=$79.14 to $103.60
d=$103.60 to ...

Recall above count, lol.  I expect to be d, e, f, g, h, i before fifth wave.  If not, AAPL is in beginning of the fifth, scary?

The only bullish indicator I can see is in this weekly chart.  Weekly MACD is above signal line.  All other indicators are bearish or at best ambiguous.

I have a possible alternative. We could still be under a B-wave of an A-B-C from the low. That’s maybe why it is so hard to read. Although most technicals are now negative, my Price Projection System (PPS) indications that the Dow has reached a possible turning point and could rally from right here. This might be realistic since the Dow has been down for 5 days and now is temporarily oversold.  If so the next upward wave could be the start of the C.  If the Dow drops significantly from here, or weakly rallies and again turns south, this alternative would be invalid, and we could be in the preferred count of a 5th wave down.

Apple’s chart looks different than the Dow, but it could also rally from here or ideally from $84-$85. Wed & Thurs. will tell us.

cramar - 13 January 2009 07:48 PM

I have a possible alternative. We could still be under a B-wave of an A-B-C from the low. That’s maybe why it is so hard to read. Although most technicals are now negative, my Price Projection System (PPS) indications that the Dow has reached a possible turning point and could rally from right here. This might be realistic since the Dow has been down for 5 days and now is temporarily oversold.  If so the next upward wave could be the start of the C.  If the Dow drops significantly from here, or weakly rallies and again turns south, this alternative would be invalid, and we could be in the preferred count of a 5th wave down.

Apple’s chart looks different than the Dow, but it could also rally from here or ideally from $84-$85. Wed & Thurs. will tell us.

What are you expecting/hopeing/want to see on Wed & Thurs?  Thanks.

alice - 13 January 2009 07:58 PM

cramar - 13 January 2009 07:48 PM

I have a possible alternative. We could still be under a B-wave of an A-B-C from the low. That’s maybe why it is so hard to read. Although most technicals are now negative, my Price Projection System (PPS) indications that the Dow has reached a possible turning point and could rally from right here. This might be realistic since the Dow has been down for 5 days and now is temporarily oversold.  If so the next upward wave could be the start of the C.  If the Dow drops significantly from here, or weakly rallies and again turns south, this alternative would be invalid, and we could be in the preferred count of a 5th wave down.

Apple’s chart looks different than the Dow, but it could also rally from here or ideally from $84-$85. Wed & Thurs. will tell us.

What are you expecting/hopeing/want to see on Wed & Thurs?  Thanks.

If we get a rally, it could be quick to $94 to $97.

cramar,

Sound like you are referring cde of abcde as abc.  Please give a higher count perspective to your abc.  Note that I didn’t conclude that d is completed.

Mace - 14 January 2009 03:40 AM

cramar,

Sound like you are referring cde of abcde as abc.  Please give a higher count perspective to your abc.  Note that I didn’t conclude that d is completed.

Probably. $79 would be completion of larger III, and an A-B-C would be IV. I’m not putting a high probability on it as an alternative. An abcde looks preferred.

Mace - 13 January 2009 04:21 PM

chinabox,

Refer to this daily chart:

a=$85 to $116.40
b=$116.40 to $79.14
c=$79.14 to $103.60
d=$103.60 to ...

Recall above count, lol.  I expect to be d, e, f, g, h, i before fifth wave.  If not, AAPL is in beginning of the fifth, scary?
...

really scary, if the channel I drawn works that d can go just below $70s with actual indexes progression. Noted volume decreases with every down wave from $116.40 to date?, also total volume from each movement is lower than previous… we are around Jul+Aug average, when it touched $180.45. This is a bullish sign, but it could be also the usual progression for a triangle or more complex bearish pattern. Are we seeing an exhaustion?, I think not: NDX has not ended 5th, nor SPX. VIX higher and higher, right now seems into w4 of 5th. 

A classic EWT triangle has a fast sharp thrust out in the direction of the previous trend. Looks like just this case for tomorrow.

cramar - 14 January 2009 07:36 PM

A classic EWT triangle has a fast sharp thrust out in the direction of the previous trend. Looks like just this case for tomorrow.

cramar, was this AAPL opening what you were talking about?

Anyone following NDX count from 1286.01 (Jan 6)?, my count right now is 4th of w5, so we can go down hard once more, could be around 1090 !!!