OT: how many have been knocked out?

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    Posted: 09 December 2008 08:32 PM #16

    CdnPhoto - 09 December 2008 10:50 PM

    Still around, just haven’t had much to say.

    Picked up a few more shares around $91

    You should be warming up to coloring China in on your Risk Map within the next three months, CdnPhoto!

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    Posted: 09 December 2008 08:46 PM #17

    Pretty much (note I didn’t say “all”) everyone, myself included, has gotten the proverbial haircut from the market crash.  But I’m still in the game, thanks in part to the lessons learned from the dot-bomb era.  Even if you’re one of those hard-headed long-investing types like me, there’s a lot of potentially attractive acquisition opportunities.  AAPL, for instance.  =) 

    This is a sensitive time to be in this game.  I feel terrible for investors who’ve been especially hurt by these market conditions, and I hope those in the AFB crowd who aren’t here now will eventually find themselves up and investing (and posting) before too long.

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    Posted: 09 December 2008 09:32 PM #18

    Eric Landstrom - 10 December 2008 12:32 AM
    CdnPhoto - 09 December 2008 10:50 PM

    Still around, just haven’t had much to say.

    Picked up a few more shares around $91

    You should be warming up to coloring China in on your Risk Map within the next three months, CdnPhoto!

    There are so many locations now, I’ve totally lost track.

         
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    Posted: 09 December 2008 10:22 PM #19

    Tommo_UK - 10 December 2008 12:25 AM

    ... And nothing will change my mind until after Q2 2009, when I think the picture will start to change significantly ...

    Picture regarding Apple business or macroeconomic conditions?  In either case, please elaborate.

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    Posted: 10 December 2008 02:42 PM #20

    I may be the opposite: began trading actively and participating on this board after the crash began in earnest.  My funds aren’t really my own—they’re from my pater (my ‘inheritance’, I suppose), and so I’ve never really thought of them as ‘my money’.  Which meant they were sitting in useless mutual funds most of this decade…

    As everything went wrong this summer, I finally gave in to my father’s entreaties and began taking an active role in managing my ‘wealth’.  Liquidated the mutual funds (a couple months too late, helas) and began buying shares, especially AAPL.  So I didn’t have the long positions that were devastated by this year’s crash.

    I am not a trader by personality or philosophy, but I’ve been drawn in to the trading game by the wild volatility.  I’ve also set myself a goal of trying to negate the losses I suffered by buying C this autumn.  :evilsanta:

    The big dilemma for me is when to switch from trading to investing mode.  I’ve established a separate brokerage account at Schwab to facilitate the distinction, though too late to buy long-term shares at the 21 November low.  I still feel short-term trading is not a good idea, at least for the likes of me, but it’s difficult to resist when there’s so much action in short-term rallies (eg these past few days).

    I am hoping (sorry) for a significant dip in AAPL duing 2009 to the mid-70s to buy in heavily for the long term…

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    Posted: 11 December 2008 01:07 PM #21

    Still in. Unable to monitor hour-to-hour, let alone day-to-day. Our 15-month old is occupying a much happier portion of our time, and my (new) day job just doesn’t allow for it. Scaling out whenever it gets near or over 140, and I’m done for a good while.

    I work for a DOW component that announced job cutbacks—luckily I changed jobs (internally) last August, and don’t have exposure to the carnage… so far. (Good thing—me and my wife just learned over Thanksgiving that she’s expecting.) This is the third time in my 23-year career I’ve seen the company go through this, and I’m still not used to it. I also have a knuckle sandwich for anyone who says the big three should be allowed to fail. Filing ch.11 bankruptcy would be a death knell for sales; they’d fail then anyway.

    Have a Happy Holiday/Merry Christmas/Happy New Year.

    [ Edited: 11 December 2008 01:11 PM by bluebox ]

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    /.doug
    "Any sufficiently advanced Apple technology is indistinguishable from magic." Arthur C. Clarke, 2008wink

         
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    Posted: 11 December 2008 02:12 PM #22

    mike_b - 10 December 2008 12:16 AM

    frigging disaster 10 bagger the wrong from the peak. what if’d give for a time machine. not much, since i lost it all on aapl.

    Same here. Nearly out - but still hanging in there. To scared to trade - though.

    ...how we all miss you Tommo!

         
  • Posted: 11 December 2008 05:16 PM #23

    Sold AAPL back around June at $185 and bought Jan 09 calls.  Was feeling bad that I didn’t sell at $200 when I had the chance in Dec 2007.  Bought back into AAPL common shares a couple months ago at 90.  Now half cash, half AAPL, calls worth $.01.  I have pulled out and spent 5 times my original investment over the last 5 years, and still have 500% of original money in my portfolio.  I’ve never liked holding cash, but it’s feeling a bit nicer lately.

         
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    Posted: 11 December 2008 06:09 PM #24

    Eric Landstrom - 09 December 2008 10:15 PM

    However, in positions that it is difficult to find the stock to short, then look at an ultrshort ETF.

    Starting tomorrow AM short EVERY single commercial REIT or commercial management company you can, one huge one will miss a HUGE repayment on Friday, that will begin the next cascade of failures. Malls, office buildings, and office parks are out there on the edge and will be unable to refinance as the short term loans they loaded up on 3-5 years ago come due, owing to vacancies, and delinquent rents from tenants themselves in trouble.

    GREAT SHORT opportunity coming, starting Friday.

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    Posted: 11 December 2008 09:52 PM #25

    TanToday - 11 December 2008 10:09 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 09 December 2008 10:15 PM

    However, in positions that it is difficult to find the stock to short, then look at an ultrshort ETF.

    Starting tomorrow AM short EVERY single commercial REIT or commercial management company you can, one huge one will miss a HUGE repayment on Friday, that will begin the next cascade of failures. Malls, office buildings, and office parks are out there on the edge and will be unable to refinance as the short term loans they loaded up on 3-5 years ago come due, owing to vacancies, and delinquent rents from tenants themselves in trouble.

    GREAT SHORT opportunity coming, starting Friday.

    Any chance that your talking about GGP?

         
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    Posted: 12 December 2008 11:01 AM #26

    Yep.

    Bought some calls on SRS, an INVERSE real estate play, up 30% { the stock } since yesterday morning.

    The NEXT shoe to drop will be the commercial real estate markets. Cutbacks, less sales, closings = reduced need for, and inability to PAY FOR their leased space, be it offices, industrial parks, and/or commercial stores.

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    “Even in the worst of times, someone turns a profit. . ” —#162 Ferengi: Rules of Acquisition

         
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    Posted: 12 December 2008 11:49 AM #27

    TanToday - 12 December 2008 03:01 PM

    Yep.

    Bought some calls on SRS, an INVERSE real estate play, up 30% { the stock } since yesterday morning.

    The NEXT shoe to drop will be the commercial real estate markets. Cutbacks, less sales, closings = reduced need for, and inability to PAY FOR their leased space, be it offices, industrial parks, and/or commercial stores.

    So does that affect the retailers in those malls if at all? What happens when no one wants to buy these properties or can even scrape together the funding for that?

         
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    Posted: 12 December 2008 12:55 PM #28

    The sponge is still around

    I am all cash, I sold even my IRA Roth account that I bought around $36 a share.


    Nothing to add to the conversation, except that we may never see a run up like we did before.  I believe given the state of the real estate market that we are in for
    a long recession that will affect most people and companies much more then they are being affected now.


    I truly think that the market will crash further and bring aapl down with it.  We may have a few fake bounces in the next 6 to 12 months, but all hell will break lose in 2010 and 2011 when a bigger number of mortgages are due for resetting.

    http://bp3.blogger.com/_pMscxxELHEg/RxzD0s_7EYI/AAAAAAAABB4/ljDSXZhMG3o/s1600-h/IMFresets.jpg

    We may not recover until 2012 or 2013.

    Apple may end up staying flat like it did between 1987 to 1995 unless they come out with another killer product in the next 4 years..  I hope it does not take 8 years but WS will ultimately dictate the price per share since it is so depended on how the market does.

    [ Edited: 12 December 2008 01:00 PM by omacvi ]      
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    Posted: 12 December 2008 02:39 PM #29

    omacvi - 12 December 2008 04:55 PM

    ... Apple may end up staying flat like it did between 1987 to 1995 unless they come out with another killer product in the next 4 years..  I hope it does not take 8 years but WS will ultimately dictate the price per share since it is so depended on how the market does.

    Price in 1991-2 is higher than 1987.  Noted you’re no longer a perma-bull.  I’m in the camp of a possible Great Depression between 2010 to 2012.  However, I believe government invention could change that ... Obama might be able to orchestrate that.

    [ Edited: 12 December 2008 02:42 PM by Mace ]

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    Posted: 12 December 2008 04:09 PM #30

    Mace - 12 December 2008 06:39 PM
    omacvi - 12 December 2008 04:55 PM

    ... Apple may end up staying flat like it did between 1987 to 1995 unless they come out with another killer product in the next 4 years..  I hope it does not take 8 years but WS will ultimately dictate the price per share since it is so depended on how the market does.

    Price in 1991-2 is higher than 1987.  Noted you’re no longer a perma-bull.  I’m in the camp of a possible Great Depression between 2010 to 2012.  However, I believe government invention could change that ... Obama might be able to orchestrate that.

    I am still a bull on aapl, but after making the mistake that housing would not bring the market down, the economy, or aapl, I have learned to be more realistic.

    I think we will have our 300 party but it will be in 2013 or 2014 grin