OT: how many have been knocked out?

  • Posted: 12 December 2008 07:59 PM #31

    Sponge,

    Happy to see that ridiculous character again. You have been missed. Keep us on our toes and post more often. Good weekend to you.

    Life is like a crap sandwich, the more bread you’ve got, the easier it goes down.

         
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    Posted: 12 December 2008 08:05 PM #32

    From the school of bad ideas I piled into SRS today on the thesis that GGP would default and got pile driven for my efforts.

    While I believe that REITs are truly in a downturn, the end-of-year pin action by funds to make their investments look better means that I’m fighting the tape. I may come back over the top kick their cans after I coalesce.

    On the upside, Monday I can trade AAPL again. I would have liked to have been all the way out of F buy now so I could have the full broadside of my gun boat because I think F will be dead money above $1.50 after a bailout until next Q but alas, Congress consistently disappoints because of their inability to frame problems from the perspective of doing the most good.

    This week’s scorecard:

    Right: F, USO, AAPL, STV, V

    Wrong: BAC, SRS, RAD

    Draw: RIO

    My heart goes out to those investors, charities, and pensions taken by Madoff.  :-(

    [ Edited: 12 December 2008 09:34 PM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 12 December 2008 08:39 PM #33

    Eric Landstrom - 13 December 2008 12:05 AM

    My heart goes out to those investors, charities, and pensions taken by Madoff.  :-(

    Hear, hear. 50 billion. 50 BILLION! Gone!

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    Brian

    It depends on what you look at, obviously,
    But even more it depends on the way that you see

         
  • Posted: 13 December 2008 10:34 AM #34

    Not to mention this 64B

    Hedge Funds Shrink by $64 Billion, Eurekahedge Says

    Dec. 11 (Bloomberg)—The global hedge-fund industry lost $64 billion of assets in November, with an index tracking its performance declining for a sixth month as economies in Asia and Europe joined the U.S. in recession, Eurekahedge Pte said.

    Market declines contributed to $18 billion in net losses, while investor redemptions made up $46 billion, Singapore-based Eurekahedge said, based on preliminary figures taken from 41 percent of the funds it surveys. It said hedge-fund assets shrank by $110 billion to $1.65 trillion in October.

    The slump takes declines to 13 percent this year as hedge funds accelerate job cuts and brace for the biggest annual losses and investor withdrawals since at least 2000, according to Eurekahedge data. Funds including Chicago-based Citadel Investment Group LLC, run by Kenneth Griffin, have been forced to liquidate funds, limit withdrawals and eliminate jobs.

    ?It?s very clear that there is going to be significant consolidation in the hedge-fund industry,? said Duncan Smith, a partner in Hong Kong at Ogier, a firm that provides corporate and legal services to financial companies. ?Conditions are quite difficult and that really goes without saying. Underlying liquidity is very hard for funds.?

    Hedge funds fell 0.4 percent on average in November, as measured by the Eurekahedge Hedge Fund Index, which tracks the performance of more than 2,000 funds that invest globally. The final figure for the month may be a 2 percent decline, said Eurekahedge, which typically receives data from poorer performing funds later.

    Distressed Selling

    Hedge-fund industry assets peaked at $1.9 trillion in June, data compiled by Chicago-based Hedge Fund Research Inc. show. Investment losses and withdrawals may shrink that amount by 45 percent by the end of this month, according to estimates by analysts at Morgan Stanley.

    Distressed selling and the rollback of debt-funded investments continued to pull down funds as the credit crisis sent the U.S., Europe and Japan into the first simultaneous recession since World War II. The MSCI World Index slumped 6.7 percent last month.

    In regional terms, the Eurekahedge Japan Hedge Fund Index was the best performer, gaining 0.8 percent last month, followed by an index measuring Latin America funds, which rose 0.7 percent.

    The Eurekahedge Eastern Europe & Russia Hedge Fund Index was the worst performer, dropping 3.7 percent, while the North American and European indexes declined 2.1 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.

    Managers that trade fixed income were the best performers in November, gaining 2.4 percent. Those trading futures, or CTAs, and so-called macro-fund managers, who wager on trends in stocks, bonds and currencies worldwide, advanced 2 percent and 1.1 percent. The index measuring hedge funds investing in distressed debt was the worst performer, sliding 3.3 percent.

    Hedge funds are mostly private pools of capital whose managers participate substantially in the profits from their speculation on whether the price of assets will rise or fall.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Tomoko Yamazaki in Tokyo at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)

    Find out more about Bloomberg for iPhone: http://bbiphone.bloomberg.com/iphone

         
  • Posted: 13 December 2008 12:05 PM #35

    Not quite dead yet.

    MacGuffin

         
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    Posted: 13 December 2008 04:37 PM #36

    My poorly timed common to LEAP conversions haven’t worked out very well, however, I’m very much still in the game.  My condolences to anyone who has been forced out. :-(

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    “Knowledge speaks, but wisdom listens.”
    - Jimi Hendrix

         
  • Posted: 13 December 2008 09:25 PM #37

    I probably should have quit, but I haven’t.  Trying to make back what I have lost by getting smarter about my trades.

    I’ve focused on other trading vehicles like QID, UYG, and QLD.  I’m about to start jumping into FAZ and FAS though, they are too tempting.

         
  • Posted: 13 December 2008 09:26 PM #38

    Eric Landstrom - 13 December 2008 12:05 AM

    This week’s scorecard:

    Right: F, USO, AAPL, STV, V

    Wrong: BAC, SRS, RAD

    Draw: RIO

    This is great info Eric.  I wonder if you could provide more info about how, why and when you entered/exited?

         
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    Posted: 30 December 2008 05:13 PM #39

    I’m still trading, but don’t post much any more. I came to the conclusion that I trade better without the assorted distractions of email, news feeds and, dare I say, AFB. I look in once in a while, but rarely during a trading day.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 30 December 2008 06:07 PM #40

    Interesting.  I’m essentially an investor, and a fundamentals guy, so I couldn’t dabble in trading without the Apple Finance Board, especially since I am almost completely ignorant of technical analysis.

    And, if Steve’s health and employment status aren’t settled one way or the other, I may have to join others in abstaining from AAPL for a while.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 30 December 2008 11:03 PM #41

    I am a long term investor and had about 1340 shares during the run-up. I sold some back in the 180s, bought some V and credit union certificates of deposits. I sold the V and repurchased about the same number of AAPL shares I previously sold around $109. I have 1,374 shares at the moment and the CDs. Still, I am down about $50,000 on current holdings. Only thing that saved my butt was no leverage.
    Most of the time, I am just lurking on the site because I am not doing options or leaps or shorts or actively trading. Right now I feel there is great value in AAPL, GOOG and RIMM.
    Right now my favorite track is ‘Keep on Smilin’ by Wet Willie. Great song.

    Hope to see everyone back in the game soon.

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    Striving to exceed the needs of the future.

         
  • Posted: 31 December 2008 10:25 AM #42

    yup the number of posts and posters as well as viewers had dropped considerably this past year. Maybe it is an Apple stock indicator? The way it came down from $200 to $80 is hard to believe considering how well the company has performed. An experience for most of us that will not be forgotten and for those still financially alive it will make them stronger investors/traders. I lost a lot of money (not really lost just net worth dropped considerably) on Apple but fortunately had hedged my 09 and 10 Leaps with spreads. Buying gold and gold miner shares (GG) the past few months and up till yesterday held only 2011 AAPL LEAPS. After the Gizmodo rumour of SJ health FUD and seeing the market react so anemically I bought a bunch of Feb calls. It is nice to see so many positive people on this board considering the carnage to their portfolios. Well we got Rothschild’s ‘‘blood in the streets’’ scenario to buy but we had to wait for dead bodies as well.  Good to see Tommo posting again after fleeing to Switzerland like a Nazi in 45’

         
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    Posted: 31 December 2008 07:05 PM #43

    Winterpool - 30 December 2008 10:07 PM

    Interesting.  I’m essentially an investor, and a fundamentals guy, so I couldn’t dabble in trading without the Apple Finance Board, especially since I am almost completely ignorant of technical analysis.

    As mentioned a while back, AFB is mostly bullish in outlook, so the readers and participants tend to do well in a bull market. However, in a bear market, when there are times you really need to sell, and in some cases short, you can end up leaning the wrong way if all the messages you get are bullish ones.

    For me this year has been one where I got caught in 3 significant down-drafts. In each case I stayed in far too long, simply because of strongly bullish external influences, that convinced me that the pullback would be brief, but instead went on for days. Waiting for a recovery is fine in a bull market, but (apart from the March run-up), has been a very poor tactic this year.

    If the year has taught me anything, it is that any news is quickly factored into a stock’s behaviour (and as Tuesday showed once again, you can’t react fast enough when a big move happens), and that my indicators have proved more reliable than any market guru or pundit. Just because someone makes a bold prediction, does not mean that it will come true!

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore