AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 09 December 2008 06:29 PM

    Eric Landstrom - 09 December 2008 10:00 PM
    cramar - 09 December 2008 09:24 PM

    Well…technically I got my close above $100 that I have been waiting for a while for. Volume still pathetic. Not the upside thrust I have been looking for…BUT, if the broad markets recover and open up tomorrow, AAPL could do very well and put in the performance I’ve been looking for. BUT if everything is negaive tomorrow and we close the gap in convincing fashion, look out below!

    Volume pathetic? Huh? Today was above average 2007 volume when the stock was at its all time highs and AAPL was going to 300 or more and a lot more people participated on this forum arguing the virtues of buying hugely out of the money LEAPS.

    My point is I would not confuse the average volume we have now (around 45-46M shares daily) that we can label as the great-I-bank-deleverage-of-2008-slash-the-year-when-traders-ruled-the-market with typical bull-market, full-speed-ahead volume of last year which was around 36M shares.

    So what can we take from this? we have a mildly up day in AAPL when the rest of the market sells off booking profits. This suggests that for today there exists an underlying faith by investors that AAPL is still a value above $100 and that AAPL will continue to trend higher.

    I agree with Eric that today was pretty good volume on average. This close above $100 seems a small but very positive step. On the other hand, I understand where Cramar is coming from in that he’s looking for market event to occur. In order to get that “rip your face off” volume fueled rally we would need a catalyst. We have been getting alot of mini-catalysts over the past 2 weeks since Thanksgiving. Now, what we’ve got left is the finalized automakers’ bailout deal that may or may not happen. Perhaps if something else could be coupled with that? For instance if there is some big buyout deal that comes to light, or an unusually positive piece of data that surprises? Then we might get that event. For now we’ve got the indices and VIX where we want them, and the Media hyping the iPhone/Walmart deal in a positive way. That gives us the Santa Clause rally - a nice steady climb from here (with a couple bits of smaller profit taking) until (IMO) an end of year tax selling/final profit taking sell-off. And that would be marketwide,  not just aapl specific.

    Let’s hope that the a.m. handles the AH news from ERTS as well as it handled lastnight’s TXN news today.

    BTW, nice prognostication AWCabot! :winksanta:

    [ Edited: 12 December 2008 02:02 AM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 09 December 2008 10:24 PM #1

    The Detroit 3 bridge loan will happen.  The market will run only modestly from it, as its long-term efficacy is in doubt.  It buys time for the D3, but WS expectation that another round of bridge loans will be needed may keep Mr. Market wobbling. 

    If one is going to be in the market, Apple is the best play IMHO. Apple’s Q1 will reveal a shining star among the dim lights elsewhere.

         
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    Posted: 09 December 2008 11:18 PM #2

    And speaking of volume… in AH between 4 and 8 pm according to MarketWatch, 434,808 shares changed hands!  I wish I knew what this means in the scheme of things. It also ended up 11 cents at 100.17.  Some mutual trade must have been triggered by a close at or above $100.00.

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  • Posted: 10 December 2008 01:26 AM #3

    BREAKING:  $15B package just approved for automakers!

    Agreement reached on $15 billion Detroit 3 aid plan
         
    WASHINGTON (Reuters)—The White House and congressional Democrats on Tuesday night reached an agreement in principle on a $15 billion proposal for bailing out the Detroit 3 and forcing them to restructure or fail, officials said.
    A Bush administration official and a Democratic leadership aide said the outline covered key points but final issues needed to be resolved and put in writing.
    Democrats have arranged to have the House of Representatives vote on a bill as early as Wednesday and send it to the Senate for consideration.
    President George W. Bush and President-elect Barack Obama were both urged by a key lawmaker to help rally support by Democrats and Republicans for the pending measure.
    “Bipartisan hard work has paid off,” said Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan whose home state headquarters General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC.
    “I understand an agreement has been reached,” Levin said in a statement.
    The bailout is designed to allow GM and Chrysler to avert threatened bankruptcy through March with short-term loans. Ford Motor Co is not requesting immediate help but would like a line of credit in case its finances worsen.
    The parties that negotiated the tentative deal agreed last week that the money would come from an Energy Department fund established in September to help Detroit make more fuel-efficient cars.
    The administration official said the negotiators satisfied the key White House concern in the talks that companies receiving aid obtain the necessary concessions and make other changes to prove they can survive and compete.
    In addition to providing loans, the proposal would force automakers to answer to a presidentially appointed trustee—or “car czar”—and make the government their biggest shareholder.
    The overseer will have powers to shape a restructuring of the companies, withholding further loans if progress toward a turnaround stalled.
    A major provision would permit the czar to recommend a bankruptcy restructuring if companies borrowing money fail to obtain the necessary concessions.
    Some Republicans wanted some sort of bankruptcy option included as an incentive for labor and other stakeholders to agree on givebacks.
    The administration still opposes a Democratic bid to force automakers to drop lawsuits against California and other states seeking to cut auto emissions and other greenhouse gases. The administration official said it was his expectation the bill will not succeed unless that provision is struck

    [ Edited: 10 December 2008 01:30 AM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 10 December 2008 01:41 AM #4

    US futures ae up on the auto news, and Asian markets are also green.

         
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    Posted: 10 December 2008 04:09 AM #5

    Mercel - 10 December 2008 05:26 AM

    BREAKING:  $15B package just approved for automakers!

    Agreement reached on $15 billion Detroit 3 aid plan
         
    WASHINGTON (Reuters)—The White House and congressional Democrats on Tuesday night reached an agreement in principle on a $15 billion proposal for bailing out the Detroit 3 and forcing them to restructure or fail, officials said.
    A Bush administration official and a Democratic leadership aide said the outline covered key points but final issues needed to be resolved and put in writing.
    Democrats have arranged to have the House of Representatives vote on a bill as early as Wednesday and send it to the Senate for consideration.
    President George W. Bush and President-elect Barack Obama were both urged by a key lawmaker to help rally support by Democrats and Republicans for the pending measure.
    “Bipartisan hard work has paid off,” said Democratic Sen. Carl Levin of Michigan whose home state headquarters General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC.
    “I understand an agreement has been reached,” Levin said in a statement.
    The bailout is designed to allow GM and Chrysler to avert threatened bankruptcy through March with short-term loans. Ford Motor Co is not requesting immediate help but would like a line of credit in case its finances worsen.
    The parties that negotiated the tentative deal agreed last week that the money would come from an Energy Department fund established in September to help Detroit make more fuel-efficient cars.
    The administration official said the negotiators satisfied the key White House concern in the talks that companies receiving aid obtain the necessary concessions and make other changes to prove they can survive and compete.
    In addition to providing loans, the proposal would force automakers to answer to a presidentially appointed trustee—or “car czar”—and make the government their biggest shareholder.
    The overseer will have powers to shape a restructuring of the companies, withholding further loans if progress toward a turnaround stalled.
    A major provision would permit the czar to recommend a bankruptcy restructuring if companies borrowing money fail to obtain the necessary concessions.
    Some Republicans wanted some sort of bankruptcy option included as an incentive for labor and other stakeholders to agree on givebacks.
    The administration still opposes a Democratic bid to force automakers to drop lawsuits against California and other states seeking to cut auto emissions and other greenhouse gases. The administration official said it was his expectation the bill will not succeed unless that provision is struck

    Yes, this week’s theme music plays on even as I plan to eject the F core very soon spiking the ball in the end zone in triumph.

    OT: here is a comparison video the F people put together that takes all the full size trucks and hammers on them. The first video is awesome.

    http://www.fordvehicles.com/2009f150/

    [ Edited: 10 December 2008 04:45 AM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 10 December 2008 05:30 AM #6

    kiwitrader - 09 December 2008 10:29 PM

    BTW, nice prognostication AWCabot! :winksanta:

    Thanks for the compliments, but wait till Wednesday’s close to pat me on the back. With AAPL closing between Monday’s upper BB and the $100.00 psychological level on good volume should be a nice platform for a sustained recovery of the stock.

    Other indicators are optimistic: the RSi is trending upwards and yet still barely over 50; MACD is slightly bullish (I think); the S&P 500 is nowhere close to it’s upper BB, which could be interpreted to taking a breather before it goes up too high.

    Heck, even oil is going up: more iPhones for the Arabs!

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 10 December 2008 08:51 AM #7

    AAPL down to $98.80 in early PM. Surprisingly high volume, over 66K shares, for this early in the morning,

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    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
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    Posted: 10 December 2008 09:15 AM #8

    Play Ultimate - 10 December 2008 12:51 PM

    AAPL down to $98.80 in early PM. Surprisingly high volume, over 66K shares, for this early in the morning,

    Besides negative reaction to ERTS, I have news items titled, “handset makers prefer goog android.” Cannot post a link ATM, sorry. Just mentioning it as the only reasons I can find for this pulback in the face of pos. looking open for the broader market.

    [ Edited: 10 December 2008 09:17 AM by kiwitrader ]      
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    Posted: 10 December 2008 09:21 AM #9

    Play Ultimate - 10 December 2008 12:51 PM

    AAPL down to $98.80 in early PM. Surprisingly high volume, over 66K shares, for this early in the morning,

    If the market goes up today, and the futures market point upwards, I am quite convinced that AAPL will also keep upwards. AAPL closed yesterday with a gain above an important psychological barrier ($100), but not by so much that makes it a candidate for profit taking. This on good volume and when the market went down. If today points to a close at about $101, I will be happy.

    For what it’s worth, AmericanBulls.com says to hold AAPL. If it’s American, it’s got to be good!

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    Tightwad.

         
  • Posted: 10 December 2008 09:31 AM #10

    If it?s American, it?s got to be good!

    Just like Eric’s Ford F150 link above. Good stuff.

    I hope Kiwi and awcabot are right in their optomism.

         
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    Posted: 10 December 2008 09:48 AM #11

    Here’s the news item on GOOG Android I couldn’t post earlier:

    Apple Lower on Increasing Pre-Bell Volume - Some Mobile Phone Makers Back Google’s Android

    07:52 AM Eastern Standard Time, 12/10/2008 (MidnightTrader)—Apple (AAPL) shares are under moderate downside pressure in today’s pre-market following reports that mobile phone makers including Sony (SNE), Vodafone (VOD) and ARM Holdings (ARMH) have joined the Open Handset Alliance - a move that supports the Android mobile device platform developed by Google (GOOG). Android competes with Apple’s iPhone 3G.

         
  • Posted: 10 December 2008 09:53 AM #12

    R4         119.46
      midpoint   116.27
    R3       113.07
      midpoint   109.88
    R2       106.68
      midpoint   105.03
    R1       103.37
      midpoint   101.83
    PP       100.29
      midpoint   98.64
    S1       96.98
      midpoint   95.44
    S2       93.90
      midpoint   90.71
    S3       87.51
      midpoint   84.32
    S4       81.12

         
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    Posted: 10 December 2008 09:57 AM #13

    kiwitrader - 10 December 2008 01:48 PM

    Here’s the news item on GOOG Android I couldn’t post earlier:

    Apple Lower on Increasing Pre-Bell Volume - Some Mobile Phone Makers Back Google’s Android

    07:52 AM Eastern Standard Time, 12/10/2008 (MidnightTrader)—Apple (AAPL) shares are under moderate downside pressure in today’s pre-market following reports that mobile phone makers including Sony (SNE), Vodafone (VOD) and ARM Holdings (ARMH) have joined the Open Handset Alliance - a move that supports the Android mobile device platform developed by Google (GOOG). Android competes with Apple’s iPhone 3G.

    Call me surprised that this has had the effect that it has. iPhone S/W is not available for anybody else to use so other phone makers either 1) develop their own s/w, 2) pay MSFT, 3) use Android for free. 

    Whatever.

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    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
  • Posted: 10 December 2008 09:59 AM #14

    Sony (SNE), Vodafone (VOD) and ARM Holdings (ARMH)

    What we have there is platform development by committee. The self interest of each party is in direct conflict with their competitor’s successful application of committee work. That, and when was the last time you authored a document by committee? with a deadline? Not the fastest way to productive communication.

         
  • Posted: 10 December 2008 10:10 AM #15

    The reason we’re down—this has been out and discussed elsewhere for more than two hours:

    Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Morgan Stanley negative on the stock
    Morgan Stanley is out negative on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) saying they see near-term downside to AAPL shares in light of weaker demand, especially for the iPhone where expectations remain high. They highlight three surprising data points from their survey of 2,500 US consumers:

    First and most important to the stock, despite significant price cuts, ?extreme? interest in the iPhone is lower than February ?07 survey (5% vs. 7%). They reduce CY09 unit forecast to 14mln (from 19mln) and note additional price cuts may be necessary to stimulate unit demand at lower margins. Firm assigns a 15x P/E multiple to iPhone, a blended average of RIMM and GOOG.

    Second, Mac brand satisfaction and market share momentum remain intact but PC purchasing plans over the next year are half of 2005 levels.MSCO lowers Mac unit growth to flat and assign a 13x P/E to this segment (50% premium to P/Dell).

    Third, iPod penetration peaked in the US and new purchases by the installed base this holiday season will fall well short of past years (6% vs. 40% typically). They lower CY09 unit growth (to -30%YoY) and assign a 3x P/E multiple which assumes revenues trend towards zero over the next three years

    What?s next: MSCO lowersC4Q estimates but believes Apple can meet the wide guidance range provided in October given channel fill of new products. That said, consensus C1Q and CY09 estimates are at risk of lower unit demand, inventory adjustments and price cuts.

    Notablecalls: AAPL stock is going to get whacked on this. I would not be surprised to see a 5pt downside move today. Note that MSCO’s new price tgt for AAPL is $95.

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