kiwitrader - 16 December 2008 05:32 PM

... this is lemmings jumping off the cliff and shorts piling on in anticipation of tomorrow’s juicey media speculation about SJ leaving Apple. Quick look at a 10-day chart, support may be at 88-89 but 90’s are still holding ATM in AH.

So for tomorrow (Thursday) I’ve now looked at a 30 day chart, since the 10-day panned out for today after all. That one is looking like good support at $85.

There’s a jobs number in the a.m. with 560k expected. A bad reaction to this could send us right to that support.  A “good” reaction and our clear support today at $88 holds up from here   to $95-96.50. Not saying that’s all in one day, folks!

S&P denied again just under 920. But the vix closed below 50 and that is very positive. In my mind (FWIW!) the market would have taken that up into the close if it was fearing a bad jobs number tomorrow. Philly Fed survey (-40.2) and leading indicators (-.50%) at 10.

We have rimm earnings after the bell as ConMan mentioned. So I know I’ll be watching out for the pin-action, especially at the end of the day.

kiwitrader - 17 December 2008 07:15 PM

There’s a jobs number in the a.m. with 560k expected. A bad reaction to this could send us right to that support.  A “good” reaction and our clear support today at $88 holds up from here   to $95-96.50. Not saying that’s all in one day, folks!

 

95 for OE would not be unreasonable, assuming the MacWorld story looses traction and the market in general eases upwards.

I keep wanting to sell at the peaks and buy back in the valleys. but have been consistently off in my timing. The recent 101 price from a few days ago was the opportunity to sell, with any dip into the low 80s (tomorrow?) the palce to buy back. My mistake is too much optimism, and a too slow reaction time for odd ball news stories (like MacWorld).

kiwitrader - 17 December 2008 07:15 PM

kiwitrader - 16 December 2008 05:32 PM

... this is lemmings jumping off the cliff and shorts piling on in anticipation of tomorrow’s juicey media speculation about SJ leaving Apple. Quick look at a 10-day chart, support may be at 88-89 but 90’s are still holding ATM in AH.

So for tomorrow (Thursday) I’ve now looked at a 30 day chart, since the 10-day panned out for today after all. That one is looking like good support at $85.

There’s a jobs number in the a.m. with 560k expected. A bad reaction to this could send us right to that support.  A “good” reaction and our clear support today at $88 holds up from here   to $95-96.50. Not saying that’s all in one day, folks!

S&P denied again just under 920. But the vix closed below 50 and that is very positive. In my mind (FWIW!) the market would have taken that up into the close if it was fearing a bad jobs number tomorrow. Philly Fed survey (-40.2) and leading indicators (-.50%) at 10.

We have rimm earnings after the bell as ConMan mentioned. So I know I’ll be watching out for the pin-action, especially at the end of the day.

I was looking at the option arbitrage opportunities in AAPL today with Chartguy today and there were some doozies. Buying the common and selling an option locked in $2.50 profit a share. If this was the case, the GS arbitrage traders would have been al over it all day until the opportunity faded. But the arbitrage traders weren’t running the arbitrage trades which suggests to me that we may see $95.00 before Friday’s close.

Eric - Did you buy aapl today?

alice - 17 December 2008 08:26 PM

Eric - Did you buy aapl today?

I did not.

Thursday pivots

R4         98.66
  midpoint   97.12
R3       95.58
  midpoint   94.04
R2       92.50
  midpoint   91.66
R1       90.82
  midpoint   90.12
PP       89.42
  midpoint   88.58
S1       87.74
  midpoint   87.04
S2       86.34
  midpoint   84.80
S3       83.26
  midpoint   81.72
S4       80.18

willrob, thanks for the road signs every day. You’re the best.

Dan

[url=http://www.smartmoney.com/]http://www.smartmoney.com/[/url] picks Apple for a bump up today. Help is where you find it.

aapl holding up fine in pm (at or + will’s PP), rimm getting taken down below 40. Nice change of scenerio for us if aapl continues green today and rimm continues into the red. Could have something to do with the fact that iPhone is eating their lunch and traders finally realize it. It will all come to light after the close.

Jobs number slightly less bad then what was expected. Obama on deck to announce new SEC head. Party on WS for that news!

Today’s open is going to be a repeat of yesterday afternoon (ie hemming and hawing round 89)? 

I feel I ought to take advantage of this peculiar wishy-washiness to buy a few more shares before today’s (hoped for?) recovery in AAPL, but it seems awfully peculiar…

Major indices are moving.  Are we waiting on some news?

Probably not helping that another ANAL-yst (Canaccord Adams) just initiated covering AAPL with a “Hold” rating and an $80 (yikes) price target.

danthemason - 18 December 2008 07:05 AM

willrob, thanks for the road signs every day. You’re the best.

Dan

Yes, thanks from me too. Using these and the PM action as a guide, my order for a traunch at 88.65 executed (for 88.53, love when that happens).

Moving at last…

Well, there went my buying opportunity. 

Oil is at $38.96 right now and the USO is at $33.31.

The SRS is rocking today after a serious multi-week decline that blew up everybody margined in and resulted in becoming over sold (SRS is priced as though this is the best time to own commercial property since Feb of 2007). Has the market figured out that if you own commercial property that you’re wrong?

Disclosure: no futures contracts. Long SRS vulture mode on the USO and looking for an entry point.

Ugh, broader market retraction is sapping AAPL’s upward momentum.

After reading all those ‘commercial property is doomed’ pieces last night (and real-estate investors’ entanglement with Madoff), why didn’t I buy SRS?  Ha!

From what I’ve read, it looks like Paulson looks to release TARP funds to GM in time for Christmas, and he himself has effectively become the ‘car czar’ in the ongoing negotiations.  Presuming there will be a pop when this is announced (unless we’re sick of hearing about Detroit?), I’m looking for an entry point in shares likely to rebound strongly on the news.  No idea what those might be though.    Perhaps Eric has some insight here?

SRS on my radar for 2 days now. That’s why I only went in partial on aapl, saving some cash just in case. This oil pullback today seems fishey though, I think it bounces hard.

Edit: Today’s oil price fishey in that all the talk yesterday was contango and contract expiration. Traders won’t let it linger below 40 for long IMO especially if indices hold up. Talk on CNBC just now that next contract that starts tomorrow is at 43, I believe they said?