Winterpool - 19 December 2008 09:56 AM

Last time GM share price was $15: 19 June (well, 14.99 high).  GM was last over $10 on 29 September.  AAPL’s high that day was over 119.  I suppose it’s possible we could see AAPL that high in three weeks (very nice, no?), but it’s a much more solid company, and that’s only a 33 per cent increase from the current share price.  I dunno about GM ascending 150 per cent…

Willrob’s data suggests there is considerable upward pressure on the share price.  Perhaps we could get to $5+...?

Edited: why is UYG up, when all the financials I’m looking up are down?  ETF latency?

SKF is down - so that means normaly UYG is up.

willrob - 19 December 2008 09:37 AM

Winterpool - 19 December 2008 09:33 AM

GM now up 20 per cent.  Probably too late to buy in on that rally: I suspect there will be immediate profit-taking (I know I would sell had I any shares).  On the other hand the share price did reach nearly $5 during ‘motor rally’ week.

GM’s MaxPain for January is $15. A lot of money bet on bailout and major stock boost.

Edit: and OE is early next month, the 16th. Can GM go up $11 in three weeks?

I always find out these things after the fact. Just looked at the chart of GM for the first time. It was an high-reliability bargain at $2 on Nov. 20. A steal really… to sell at $5. The clear 3 wave sequence off the bottom does not give me confidence that GM has made a final bottom. But short term (couple weeks), the best case is that it climbs rapidly to hit the downtrend line from July and Sept. at around $9 to $10 (by the time it gets there). Worst case, this rally stalls quickly and GM drops to a new low which would be the final bottom (assuming it doesn’t go bankrupt).

Today may be one of those OE days when traders push the stock up and down a bit, but it will ultimately land at 90.

cramar - 19 December 2008 10:16 AM

willrob - 19 December 2008 09:37 AM

Winterpool - 19 December 2008 09:33 AM

GM now up 20 per cent.  Probably too late to buy in on that rally: I suspect there will be immediate profit-taking (I know I would sell had I any shares).  On the other hand the share price did reach nearly $5 during ‘motor rally’ week.

GM’s MaxPain for January is $15. A lot of money bet on bailout and major stock boost.

Edit: and OE is early next month, the 16th. Can GM go up $11 in three weeks?

I always find out these things after the fact. Just looked at the chart of GM for the first time. It was an high-reliability bargain at $2 on Nov. 20. A steal really… to sell at $5. The clear 3 wave sequence off the bottom does not give me confidence that GM has made a final bottom. But short term (couple weeks), the best case is that it climbs rapidly to hit the downtrend line from July and Sept. at around $9 to $10 (by the time it gets there). Worst case, this rally stalls quickly and GM drops to a new low which would be the final bottom (assuming it doesn’t go bankrupt).

F was below $1.20 not too long ago as well.

I notice that FSLR is trading at $10 over their Max Pain.

Well, whilst I was deliberating, GM price rose from about $4 to 4.30—over 7 per cent.  That would have been nice for an hour’s work!

Getting back to AAPL, we are below 90 again…  Is this going to be the third day of little or no movement?  Are we stuck until someone confirms Steve lives?  And Cramer (confound his unholy name) recommended yesterday that until we know more about Steve’s health, one should take advantage of any opportunity to short AAPL.

Winterpool - 19 December 2008 10:31 AM

Getting back to AAPL, we are below 90 again…  Is this going to be the third day of little or no movement?

I suspect it’s just OE pinning action. So in essence, yes, I’m expecting little movement.

Winterpool - 19 December 2008 10:31 AM

Well, whilst I was deliberating, GM price rose from about $4 to 4.30—over 7 per cent.  That would have been nice for an hour’s work!

Getting back to AAPL, we are below 90 again…  Is this going to be the third day of little or no movement?  Are we stuck until someone confirms Steve lives?  And Cramer (confound his unholy name) recommended yesterday that until we know more about Steve’s health, one should take advantage of any opportunity to short AAPL.

I don’t think any serious investor (or investment house0 really though that the pull out from MacWolrd was due to Jobs’ health. It simply was a perfect excuse to short the stock, which everybody and their grandmother did. Now instead of 95 being our Max Pain, it sunk in the past two days to 90, and that’s were we’ll be when the bell rings. Next week we’ll shoot up to 200. 

Somebody’s starting to think over at Credit Suisse, as reported by the International Herald Tribune…

Credit Suisse to change bonus system

ZURICH, Switzerland: Credit Suisse Group said Thursday it is changing its bonus system to transfer $5 billion in questionable assets to top managers.

Passing on the assets, which may turn out to be worth much less in current volatile markets, will help relieve Switzerland’s second-largest bank of risky investments on its books, Credit Suisse said in an internal memo.

Managing directors, directors and members of senior management will receive cash for part of the bonuses in a payout in February, but they also will receive illiquid shares, the bank said in an internal memo to its employees.

The cash compensation will have to be paid back in rates if the employee quits, it said.

The memo did not contain any figures, but spokesman Marc Dosch said the shares had a book value of around $5 billion and that they would go to around 2,000 senior managers.

AAPL seems to be pinning to $89.90

edit: AAPL’s been in a trading in 20¢ range for the past 20 minutes. 

Play Ultimate - 19 December 2008 11:09 AM

AAPL seems to be pinning to $89.90

edit: AAPL’s been in a trading in 20¢ range for the past 20 minutes.  :roll:

but it looks like a narrowing wedge with volume falling.  If someone is going to make a move, it could be shortly.

As we head into the end of Q1 2009,  it’s time for me to start thinking about analyst expectations and actual EPS.  Surely, actual EPS # should move the stock north, even in this fugly market.  In the meantime, I am not buying or selling at the moment, unless we see low 80s or 130s, respectively, in the next month. 

Should have bought F—it was a fairly safe bet, knowing that at least a temporary bailout was always in the cards.

Battle being fought over every little move up.  RSI being held under 50.  MACD sitting near 0. 

Chartguy, I read about the Credit Suisse ‘bonus’ yesterday and thought it was absolute genius.  Instead of coal, CDOs and mortgage-backed securities in your stockings!

Frankly, I’d take any mortgage-backed securities the banks were willing to give me.  I mean they have to be worth more than nil, right?  I’d probably be fracked somehow, though (tax implications?).

I considered buying GM earlier this week, but the timing made it all too risky.  Presumed the bailout was good for at least a 10 per cent pop… but on what day?  Let’s say I bought on day A, and the bailout was on day C, but on intervening day B the share price dropped another 30 per cent?  A 10 per cent pop on C would do me little good.  All I could reasonably expect was that the bailout would come before Christmas.

I’m content with AAPL stable today.  It’s better than all the Fridays I’ve spent on transport in the afternoon and missed a critical market movement (I’m thinking of you, 21 November!).  Somehow I always expect Fridays to be relatively quiet…

Winterpool - 19 December 2008 11:42 AM

Somehow I always expect Fridays to be relatively quiet…

Triple witching today, however.