lulli - 19 December 2008 10:06 AM

I have some VIX 45 january put options that I bought when VIX was close to 90, they never increased in value despite the VIX drop, but they now managed for the first time to turn very slightly green, with an enormous jump in value from just yesterday.

What do you guys think? Is this a fluctuation that I have to take advantage of and bail, or else should I let my greed run for a while?

thanks!

I’m just a VIX watcher, trade no options. But I can see on a 3-month chart ( and recall from watching daily for as much time or more) that 45 was key support for the vix once it fell below 60. Now it has broken that and the next clear support on the same chart as well as a six month, is $30.

So, Mr. Market may fool around for a bit pushing this back and forth between 40 & 50, provided “he” can get this back through 45 as this is now resistance. In any case, if the market rallies over S&P 920 and into 1000, next stop down on the VIX will be 30. We break S&P 850 and we could see VIX 60 in no time flat again.

Don’t know if this helps in your options quandary, but that’s the S&R IMO on the VIX (and the VIX is a direct trade off the S&P action).

EDIT: CNBC reporting from the floor just now, mentioned that traders are noting VIX 44.25 was key support from Nov. that was broken and in doing so the VIX continues to slide.

macglenn - 19 December 2008 11:24 AM

Play Ultimate - 19 December 2008 11:09 AM

AAPL seems to be pinning to $89.90

edit: AAPL’s been in a trading in 20¢ range for the past 20 minutes. 

but it looks like a narrowing wedge with volume falling.  If someone is going to make a move, it could be shortly.

Yup!  It’s moving.

Seems like as long as S&P 884 maitains as support, we will have the typical OE pinning in 89-90 area. Breaks 884, and then maybe we retest our lows from yesterday and the day before (88.44/88.02)?

This Fitch (or was it Moody’s) downgrade of GM that just came out may chew away at the 884 support though. For now, market’s turning the other cheek

AAPL volume looks ridiculously light… look for a move this afternoon. I don’t play near-term options, but if I had to take a guess, I’d say there is an effort to kill the $90 calls and possibly some $85s while selling some $90 puts… then look for a close at $91 or $92.

Pure speculation on my part, but that’s what I would do with a big enough bankroll.

I think we have an Obama-conference this afternoon too. Anyone know what time? Perhaps if it’s close enough to the EOD, that will rev things up for a 91-92 close on indices rallying?

It’s a slow day, so I calculated the pivot points for the VIX

R4         63.25
  midpoint   60.58
R3       57.91
  midpoint   55.24
R2       52.57
  midpoint   51.26
R1       49.95
  midpoint   48.59
PP       47.23
  midpoint   45.92
S1       44.61
  midpoint   43.25
S2       41.89
  midpoint   39.22
S3       36.55
  midpoint   33.88
S4       31.21

Oh dear, look at RIMM go.

Can we get a nice pop of this magnitude when AAPL beats the Street’s doom and gloom in January?

Looks like RIMM will close over their Max Pain (40), unless there is a sell off toward the close. FRSL looks to being held to $10 above its MP, hovering around 140 by the use of magnets.

$90.00 is showing great resistance.

90.00?  Max pain.

Edited: close got revised on my screen to 89.69. 

First TDAmeritrade said the close was 90, then they revised and now say it was 89.81. Google Finance at first said the close was 89.69, but has now revised and says it was 90. Yahoo also says 90. As does MarketWatch.

willrob - 19 December 2008 04:22 PM

First TDAmeritrade said the close was 90, then they revised and now say it was 89.81. Google Finance at first said the close was 89.69, but has now revised and says it was 90. Yahoo also says 90. As does MarketWatch.

It’s $90.00.

Eric Landstrom - 19 December 2008 04:25 PM

willrob - 19 December 2008 04:22 PM

First TDAmeritrade said the close was 90, then they revised and now say it was 89.81. Google Finance at first said the close was 89.69, but has now revised and says it was 90. Yahoo also says 90. As does MarketWatch.

It’s $90.00.

I have a love/hate feeling on those OE Fridays when “they” can end the day precisely on the price they need. “They” didn’t bother trying with FSLR or RIMM, which overshot their runways. Was is just easier for them to keep AAPL in line because the MacWorld story scared away all the buyers?

willrob - 19 December 2008 05:53 PM

Eric Landstrom - 19 December 2008 04:25 PM

willrob - 19 December 2008 04:22 PM

First TDAmeritrade said the close was 90, then they revised and now say it was 89.81. Google Finance at first said the close was 89.69, but has now revised and says it was 90. Yahoo also says 90. As does MarketWatch.

It’s $90.00.

I have a love/hate feeling on those OE Fridays when “they” can end the day precisely on the price they need. “They” didn’t bother trying with FSLR or RIMM, which overshot their runways. Was is just easier for them to keep AAPL in line because the MacWorld story scared away all the buyers?

Here, here. Let’s just hope that we pick up that $5 in a hurry next week. This week has been brutal for me…