What does the MacWorld keynote decision mean for Jobs’ future?

Poll: Does Steve Jobs not giving keynote at MacWorld signify:
Total Votes: 57
He is going to reduce his role.
23
He is on his way out.
4
Nothing. His role will be unchanged.
30
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    Posted: 23 December 2008 02:34 PM #16

    ALL the Apple Stores are crowded from what I have gathered and there will most likely be surprises happening w/ retail sales, earnings and Macworld.  Everyone is so caught up in rumor hype from the media that no one is using common sense here.  SJ had pancreatic cancer and a major surgery so of COURSE he is thin and will have health challenges!  This was not a skinned knee and the recovery and prognosis are very serious.  The company has known this since 2004 and so they certainly have management plans with SJ?s health in mind.  The best thing for SJ would be for everyone to stop buggin? him about his health so that he could focus on running the company and planning for the future when he retires. 

    One more thing - many have speculated that an Apple w/o SJ is doomed and they site 1987 as the reason.  Again, where is common sense??  The company that SJ AND his TEAM have built since 1997 is completely different than the one horse show from the ?80s.  They have professional management, a huge loyal customer base with coverage through their own channels (to the point where they do NOT need 3rd party advertising such as Macworld), tons of innovative products that are quickly adopted and gaining share everyday, and plenty of new products in the pipeline.  This is NOT a one man show and hasn?t been for a VERY long time.

    FWIW, people in the Apple stores in and around Silicon Valley report that the company IS ?buzzing? with the excitement of new products coming soon, and the only damper in anyone?s enthusiasm is the annoyance of media regarding SJ?s health that has temporarily tanked the stock price.  Apple never has responded to rumors and never will, and yet traders sell anyway.  One day soon the SHORTS will be caught with their pants down on this stock IMHO. 

    Happy Holidays!

         
  • Posted: 23 December 2008 02:54 PM #17

    omacvi - 23 December 2008 06:26 PM

    This is a very interesting conversation which I think is very healthy for us aapl investors.

    Can someone please take the time and research this issue in our past forums.  We had the same talk a year or two ago about the future of Apple or the impact of SJ on Apple as a company.  I seem to recall that we were in agreement that the success of Apple was dependent on its overall management team rather then one person.

    Consensus was that had Steve left at that point in time it would have been a negative both for the company and the stock.  A couple more years down the road and it might dent the stock in the short term but not so much the company.  I happen to believe we’ve reached that point.  Steve’s contributions will always be beneficial but not irreplaceable in my opinion.  Apple has reached a point where the way forward is clearly defined internally and it’s mostly about execution.  With that in mind it would be more worrisome if Tim Cook or Ron Johnson were to leave than Steve.
    If we’re skating to where the puck will be we should be a lot more interested as to whether they are harboring the next generation of young turks that are a pia to have around but necessary for the next decades “insanely great” products.  Steve freely admitted that he almost missed the music thing.  All of us old guys missed the myspace/facebook revolution.  It’s time to bring the kids to the forefront.

    [ Edited: 23 December 2008 03:08 PM by BillH ]

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    Posted: 23 December 2008 03:08 PM #18

    They also have Ives, Dobberpuhl and Papermaster (within a year he will be a very KEY player), among others.  Their team is solid and all bases seem to be covered.  If SJ were to withdraw from day to day responsibilities to eventually transition to retirement, Apple’s operation still would run smoothly, perhaps with a bit less glitter but their future products will take care of this!

    In a way, Apple’s insistence on being secretive about succession plans will prove healthy for the stock in the long run because the rumors have shaken out ignorant traders/investors, allowing committed investors a better point of entry for the longer term.

    Happy holidays!

         
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    Posted: 23 December 2008 03:12 PM #19

    BTW, on the SJ poll here, there should be a 4th category: “SJ’s role will change.”  That’s all we really can speculate for sure based on him not participating in Macworld, a 3rd party show that is all but extinct.

    In other words, he probably will have as MUCH of a role, just different in terms of the glitzy appearances.  It’s time for other mgt to have the spotlight so that traders/investors quit identifying Apple with SJ exclusively. 

    He’s not likely “on his way out” but when he does retire it will be important for shareholders to believe in the rest of his amazing mgt team.  Eventually people will realize that the products provide the glitter and drama with OR without Steve’s popular presentation style.

    Happy holidays!

         
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    Posted: 23 December 2008 04:23 PM #20

    chiforce - 23 December 2008 07:12 PM

    ... when he does retire it will be important for shareholders to believe in the rest of his amazing mgt team ...

    Exactly what we have in mind.  Hence, is critical rolleyes for transition to have begun.

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  • Posted: 23 December 2008 10:29 PM #21

    From daring fireball:


    Newsweek on Steve Jobs ?

      Newsweek columnist Dan ?Fake Steve? Lyons wrote the Steve Jobs profile for Newsweek?s ?The Global Elite? special issue. The subhead describes him as ?the ailing creator of the iPhone and iPod?. Lyons has been hammering on Jobs?s health since June. Maybe the guy is in fact ill ? I don?t know. But at what point has Newsweek published any evidence whatsoever that he is ?ailing??

      Keep in mind that Lyons is the guy who wrote in June, ?If Jobso is still running Apple at year-end, I?ll be shocked.?

    Hmm, does make me wonder if this guy knows something we don’t. It was pretty annoying that he wrote a headline saying SJ is “ailing” with no evidence. What would you do if you were privy to top secret info about SJ and wrote for a major media outlet? Would you spill it, or would you tease and watch people squirm? :oh:

         
  • Posted: 23 December 2008 10:39 PM #22

    I think people are weighting Macworld far too much as a predictor of SJ’s future at Apple.  Plus, all those prognosticators pushing SJ out the door are the last people on earth SJ will want to legitimize by leaving.  I don’t know SJ personally, but a part of me thinks that any talk of his early retirement feeds more of his ambition to continue. My 2 cents.

    [ Edited: 23 December 2008 10:43 PM by ByeTMO ]      
  • Posted: 24 December 2008 02:00 AM #23

    Mercel - 24 December 2008 02:39 AM

    I don’t know SJ personally, but a part of me thinks that any talk of his early retirement feeds more of his ambition to continue. My 2 cents.

    I am with you that all this talk about his health and him leaving would feed his ambition.  If it all the talk was not true, I would expect him to deliver an epic hour or longer keynote that would put all the talk behind us once and for all.  There is no way he would be willing to step down to a lower presence with all of this talk going on if he really was healthy and capable.

    I mean it just makes no sense.  If he was healthy but just trying to expand the roles of other management members he would still be up there leading the keynote and hanging around to crack jokes while all of the others were sharing their parts.  He would not just disappear from the scene.  I have been drinking the koolaid for too long, and I finally came to the realization last week. Steve is not healthy. I will be the first to admit I was chugging the koolaid at $200 a share laughing at every rumor about his health, but it was irrational and I was wrong.  I am owning Apple here because I find it to be a bargain, even pricing in Jesus’ departure by the end of next year.

    “You heard that he would be retiring by 2009 or is your educated guess?” -Mace
    Of course it is just my educated guess that I am counting on, no one can know for sure.

    I know Apple has a great management team under Steve, but I still think he is vital to the company.  Him as CEO drives home the idea that I can count on Apple not to make shitty products, and for them to always be pushing the envelope with the newest innovation.  I think he drives every one in the company to think bigger, work faster, and make better products.  But that’s just my opinion, of course Steve’s value to the company is always going to be a great debate.


    Steve leaving will be a total net negative, no doubt about it, but the one positive I see is that the company will finally do something with their cash pile once he moves on and takes his irrational fear of bankruptcy with him.

    [ Edited: 24 December 2008 02:05 AM by WillyPitt ]      
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    Posted: 24 December 2008 10:07 AM #24

    WillyPitt - 24 December 2008 06:00 AM

    If it all the talk was not true, I would expect him to deliver an epic hour or longer keynote that would put all the talk behind us once and for all.  There is no way he would be willing to step down to a lower presence with all of this talk going on if he really was healthy and capable.

    How often does he need to do this? He just gave a long presentation in November. The problem with unsubstantiated theories is that they can never be proven otherwise. Thus even if he gave an epic keynote in Jan., if he decided to not the next presentation these rumors would fly again. 

    The truth of the matter is a) SJ will eventually retire and b) SJ will eventually die. Thus, the rumor mongers will eventually be proven true.  rolleyes

    As I mentioned previously, the challenge is that SJ and Apple are perceived to be synonymous. SJ recognizes that for Apple’s long term future, this must change. By allowing others to give keynotes/financial reports etc. over the long term the focus is taken off of SJ and put back onto Apple’s financials and products.  As a person with a large ego, SJ wants Apple to thrive once he leaves. SJ is taking the steps to insure Apple’s future;  especially now after seeing the state of MSFT after Gates departure.  :wink:

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  • Posted: 24 December 2008 01:07 PM #25

    Play Ultimate - 24 December 2008 02:07 PM
    WillyPitt - 24 December 2008 06:00 AM

    If it all the talk was not true, I would expect him to deliver an epic hour or longer keynote that would put all the talk behind us once and for all.  There is no way he would be willing to step down to a lower presence with all of this talk going on if he really was healthy and capable.

    How often does he need to do this? He just gave a long presentation in November.

    He was only on the stage for 30 min in October, and handed over a good portion of the presentation to 2 other presenters…that only added fuel to the fire that was already burning.