AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 21 December 2008 05:30 PM

    For Monday, my gut tells me that aapl will be the focus of the positive side of retail sales reports for this weekend. My novice but hopefully accurate TA ablities show me aapl has made a higher LOD since the breakdown Tues. night when the SJ/MW news came out. We held support Wed. at 88.02, then saw lows of 88.44 and 88.80 on the 2 days that followed. I believe Monday morning’s OE hangover (if any) will be no lower than that Friday LOD. S&P closed below 885 on Monday thanks to .gov fumbling the autobailout. By Tues. the street felt assured the matter would be handled to it’s satisfaction and brought the index back to close each day above 885. VIX below 50 is key. I think it will break 40 if we finally get our pop above S&P 920 next week on the exageration low volume can bring.

    All to say, I’m still holding my rebought aapl shares from Thursday, and I really think that Chas will have his 5 bucks back by this time tomorrow. :winksanta:

    [ Edited: 23 December 2008 11:51 PM by DawnTreader ]      
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    Posted: 21 December 2008 07:21 PM #1

    I’m glad you brought up the VIX, because I believe there is a counterintuitive trend forming with the VIX. In the past, a drop of the VIX with the magnitude of the most recent drop would have sent the markets skyrocketing. But they didn’t. Check out this annotated chart comparing AAPL to the VIX.

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    Posted: 21 December 2008 08:08 PM #2

    erntheburn - 21 December 2008 11:21 PM

    I’m glad you brought up the VIX, because I believe there is a counterintuitive trend forming with the VIX. In the past, a drop of the VIX with the magnitude of the most recent drop would have sent the markets skyrocketing. But they didn’t. Check out this annotated chart comparing AAPL to the VIX

    Ern,

    1: please post smaller charts, as it forces me into horizontal scrolling.
    2: you are assuming that the correlation between a declining VIX and a rising stock is strong: it isn’t. VIX measures volatility, not “fear”.

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    Posted: 21 December 2008 09:06 PM #3

    awcabot - 22 December 2008 12:08 AM
    erntheburn - 21 December 2008 11:21 PM

    I’m glad you brought up the VIX, because I believe there is a counterintuitive trend forming with the VIX. In the past, a drop of the VIX with the magnitude of the most recent drop would have sent the markets skyrocketing. But they didn’t. Check out this annotated chart comparing AAPL to the VIX

    Ern,

    1: please post smaller charts, as it forces me into horizontal scrolling.
    2: you are assuming that the correlation between a declining VIX and a rising stock is strong: it isn’t. VIX measures volatility, not “fear”.

    The number 2 assumption that a declining VIX and rising index (and in the case of leadership stocks) IS VERY strong, had I put up the S&P 500 index you would see a similar complacency. I used AAPL as an extreme example. And it is widely accepted that volatility is synonymous with fear, that’s why the VIX is often referred to as the “Fear Index.

    Other than the last few session that I highlighted, you will not find another period of time in the last year where such an anomaly occurred. I would say that is pretty darn compelling.

    -ernie

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    Posted: 21 December 2008 11:46 PM #4

    hmm, we went down last week when the vix went down primarily because of the SJ/macworld news. So without some context your ‘pretty darn compelling’ don’t mean much to me.

         
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    Posted: 21 December 2008 11:58 PM #5

    Ern, you remain impervious to the facts before you:

    aapl was down last week in the face of a plummeting VIX over fear of SJ’s health being in jeopordy. Period. Not because a couple of squiggles on a chart didn’t align. And even in the face of this fear, the market has quietly moved up the level of support under the stock with each passing trading session. The stock fell mostly by fault of an absurd blunder put forth by Apple’s PR department. The other reason being the moronic misrepresentation of the NPD report by the financial media highlighting desktop sales being down, yet not reporting that laptop sales have increased instead.

         
  • Posted: 22 December 2008 01:32 AM #6

    Monday

    R4     96.33
    midpoint   95.26
    R3     94.19
    midpoint   93.12
    R2     92.05
    midpoint   91.54
    R1     91.03
    midpoint   90.47
    PP     89.91
    midpoint   89.40
    S1     88.89
    midpoint   88.33
    S2     87.77
    midpoint   86.70
    S3     85.63
    midpoint   84.56
    S4

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 04:40 AM #7

    The price dropped like a rock as the hysterical media surmised that Steve J was “obviously” on his death bed.

    However, I don’t see the real mover for the price to increase significantly in the short term.  In addition, I fear that people wary of January earnings will certainly put the brakes on any significant rise in AAPL.

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 09:49 AM #8

    I think sales will be pretty decent actually.  It’s 2009 that I think will hurt and push things lower.

    Anecdotal…here in NYC, the iPhone is becoming quite the ubiquitous gadget.  I’m starting to see them everywhere.  Very reminiscent of the iPod craze.  I have no idea what sales are, I’m just sayin’.

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 10:38 AM #9

    Mmm, we’re slipping fast.  Any news?

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 10:39 AM #10

    awcabot - 22 December 2008 12:08 AM
    erntheburn - 21 December 2008 11:21 PM

    I’m glad you brought up the VIX, because I believe there is a counterintuitive trend forming with the VIX. In the past, a drop of the VIX with the magnitude of the most recent drop would have sent the markets skyrocketing. But they didn’t. Check out this annotated chart comparing AAPL to the VIX

    Ern,

    1: please post smaller charts, as it forces me into horizontal scrolling.
    2: you are assuming that the correlation between a declining VIX and a rising stock is strong: it isn’t. VIX measures volatility, not “fear”.

    FYI… Bloomberg posted a pretty good recap of the VIX over the weekend. (Note: I can’t remember if the original was posted 12/20 or 12/21; it’s been updated as of 12/22.)

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 10:57 AM #11

    Bought at 88.15.  Should have waited for Willrob’s S2 (87.77?).

    And now we’re through that.

    Edited: dang, my next limit order at 87.19 was triggered.  What the frack?  No one’s reported that Steve has suffered a coronary?  Was he sighted in Xanadu?

    Okay, we’re going to see S3 today, aren’t we.  :-?

    [ Edited: 22 December 2008 11:08 AM by Winterpool ]

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
  • Posted: 22 December 2008 11:09 AM #12

    WTF - CNBC only reports SJ health concerns when mentioning Apple - and the stock behaves as if he already died!

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  • Posted: 22 December 2008 11:21 AM #13

    Support at 86.70 seems to become now resistance!

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    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 11:22 AM #14

    the only smart thing is to be a total bear now with aapl; SJ paranoia (or who knows if it IS paranoia) combined with conviction that things get worse means we will go down on the downs and not pull up on the ups as much. imho. that’s what I’m trading with the few $ that are left from my optimistic strat’s disasters.

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 11:24 AM #15

    I expected overall direction would be down, but this fast?  There really hasn’t been any news?  Dow is only down .40 per cent…

    Owing to low volume and necessity of making end-of-year figures look pretty (or at least not utterly horrible), high volatility has been anticipated.  I just hope there’s some nice volatility on the upside as well.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain