AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 11:35 AM #16

    chartguy - 22 December 2008 02:39 PM

    FYI… Bloomberg posted a pretty good recap of the VIX over the weekend. (Note: I can’t remember if the original was posted 12/20 or 12/21; it’s been updated as of 12/22.)

    Using the VIX alone to predict price action is probably short-sighted. I use the VIX as a confirming indicator. But the point of my post was to show the atypical behavior of the VIX over the past couple of weeks. I think it shows that a lower VIX and lower prices are in the cards…translation…a longer-term bear market is setting up.

    I have been pondering this specific phenomenon for a couple of weeks now. I first warned subscribers of my alert service on Friday the 19th, that I felt the markets were turning decidedly bearish.

    -ernie

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 11:48 AM #17

    My, how fucking prescient of you. How do you do it? Enough already with this self-congratulatory bullshit. Have you lost or made money in the last 6 months is the only relevant thing, and if you have lost then do us all a favour and please stfu.

    Right now the sound of wailing and gnashing of teeth is infinitely preferable, and understandable, than your head in the sand crapola.

    erntheburn - 22 December 2008 03:35 PM

    I have been pondering this specific phenomenon for a couple of weeks now. I first warned subscribers of my alert service on Friday the 19th, that I felt the markets were turning decidedly bearish.

    -ernie

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 11:54 AM #18

    mike_b - 22 December 2008 03:48 PM

    My, how fucking prescient of you. How do you do it? Enough already with this self-congratulatory bullshit. Have you lost or made money in the last 6 months is the only relevant thing, and if you have lost then do us all a favour and please stfu.

    Right now the sound of wailing and gnashing of teeth is infinitely preferable, and understandable, than your head in the sand crapola.

    erntheburn - 22 December 2008 03:35 PM

    I have been pondering this specific phenomenon for a couple of weeks now. I first warned subscribers of my alert service on Friday the 19th, that I felt the markets were turning decidedly bearish.

    -ernie


    mike_b,
    you took the words right out of my mouth . . .. my sentiments entirely.

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 11:55 AM #19

    mike_b - 22 December 2008 03:48 PM

    My, how fucking prescient of you. How do you do it? Enough already with this self-congratulatory bullshit. Have you lost or made money in the last 6 months is the only relevant thing, and if you have lost then do us all a favour and please stfu.

    Right now the sound of wailing and gnashing of teeth is infinitely preferable, and understandable, than your head in the sand crapola.

    Man, you need to take a chill pill. I was only trying to help point out this unusual sway in market sentiment.

    I really do think if this VIX trend continues, we’re setting up for a much longer-term bear market.

    -ernie

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:02 PM #20

    Back to today’s action…

    In classic form, I took fright at the rapid continuing drop and failed to buy more in the 86s.  And now we’ve recovered over 87.

    I did buy a few shares for my long-term account at 86.50.  We’ll see how that pans out.

    According to CNBC, the Christmas rally tends to occur on Christmas Eve and the days directly afterwards, leading up to the New Year, which makes sense considering the funds’ need to dress up their numbers for year’s end.  I hope we can at least get back over 90 by Christmas Eve, 95+ by the New Year.

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:09 PM #21

    Winterpool - 22 December 2008 04:02 PM

    According to CNBC, the Christmas rally tends to occur on Christmas Eve and the days directly afterwards, leading up to the New Year, which makes sense considering the funds’ need to dress up their numbers for year’s end.  I hope we can at least get back over 90 by Christmas Eve, 95+ by the New Year.

    These period movements are dangerous, because as soon as the crowd gets wind of it, with everybody trying to second guess each other, any swing is neutralized.

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:09 PM #22

    Winterpool - 22 December 2008 04:02 PM

    Back to today’s action…

    In classic form, I took fright at the rapid continuing drop and failed to buy more in the 86s.  And now we’ve recovered over 87.

    I did buy a few shares for my long-term account at 86.50.  We’ll see how that pans out.

    According to CNBC, the Christmas rally tends to occur on Christmas Eve and the days directly afterwards, leading up to the New Year, which makes sense considering the funds’ need to dress up their numbers for year’s end.  I hope we can at least get back over 90 by Christmas Eve, 95+ by the New Year.

    We may also see a number of redemptions as we approach the year end and just into the New Year. However, with the market down as much as it is, I tend to think that this number will be greatly reduced.

    edit: BTW, I don’t know if I would be quite as pessimistic considering we were at $95 just a few days ago.  :wink:

    [ Edited: 22 December 2008 12:11 PM by Play Ultimate ]

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:30 PM #23

    Play Ultimate - 22 December 2008 04:09 PM

    We may also see a number of redemptions as we approach the year end and just into the New Year. However, with the market down as much as it is, I tend to think that this number will be greatly reduced.

    I think there are people who don’t want to sell at these levels, but will be forced to. There is still a significant overhang on hedge fund redemptions from some things I have read. I also expect to see forced mutual fund selling as people re-allocate their 401(k). Maybe something to think about…

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:36 PM #24

    Well, I guess my battle cry for support at $88, let alone Friday’s LOD at 88.80, was too optimistic. I suppose that support was merely there to uphold a minimum $90 strike price on OE. Now that the support on a 10-day chart has broken, I’m looking at the 30-day and it’s $85 flat.

    The S&P is trying to hold support right now from the EOD dip on Friday to the low 870’s.

    So, perhaps going into the afternoon we can watch for a rally across the broader market and perhaps go out of the day flat, unless we break $85. Then we may see the number Plato mentioned last week in the 82’s?

    Sorry Chas MacHomey, maybe we’ll get your 5-bucks back tomorrow or Christmas Eve. ?  :rollsanta:

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:39 PM #25

    Oh dear, we’re heading for S3.  Please let 85 hold.  I’ve bought too much already (more at 86.50).  Would that I had kept my power dry till now…

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:40 PM #26

    Ask yourself why AAPL would go higher today and if you cannot find a good reason then trade accordingly.

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:41 PM #27

    Jah, there are no buyers out there.  Save me.  :evilsanta:

    Edited: can you believe I’m thinking of buying more in the 85s?  I’ll wait a little and see if this support can hold.  Willrob didn’t list an S4… apres 85, le deluge?

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:44 PM #28

    Eric Landstrom - 22 December 2008 04:40 PM

    Ask yourself why AAPL would go higher today and if you cannot find a good reason then trade accordingly.

    The news isn’t going to come today I guess, but I honestly think the Gene Munster “camping-at-the-stores-and-pumping-the-share price” effect will take hold tomorrow or Wed.

    I think that reports of very positive holiday sales for Apple compared to other “retailers” would make it a good trade going into the holiday and possibly a day or so next week.

    I am however hesitant to add to my postion ATM toDCA, if the S&P is to lose support at 870.

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:47 PM #29

    kiwitrader - 22 December 2008 04:44 PM

    I am however hesitant to add to my postion ATM toDCA, if the S&P is to lose support at 870.

    It has looked at times like AAPL is leading the markets (down) today.

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:48 PM #30

    I am patiently waiting for aapl to hit 60. :eg:

    It may happen in 3 months or 18 months.

    All economic signs point to more pain ahead.  Last year at this time we were climbing from 153 to 197 and then we went to 115 in less then three weeks.

    This time we went from 79 to 103.  I don’t see us going back over 103 by the end of the year, but I do see us visiting the 70’s again.

    Regardless of what aapl announces at earnings release, the stock will be dictated by the overall market.  With more bad news in the beginning of the year, I see the market lower and taking aapl with it.