AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:55 PM #31

    The S&P is currently breaking down from its rising wedge and trend line support of 880. I believe if it closes well enough below that mark, then the Bear rally will be over and a new leg down will begin, and in time we should retest the November lows.

    If this happens, then AAPL will, in my opinion, also retest those lows. And, considering the recent weakness AAPL has displayed, it may very well fall below the November 79.14 mark and find support in the 72-74 range.

    -ernie

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:56 PM #32

    I dunno about 60, but I’m not ruling it out.  I am counting on a return to the 70s, though I hope we don’t see that until 2009.

    Like Kiwi, I expect positive Apple reports on the retail front.  It definitely helps, I think, given the harsh winter weather at the weekend, that Apple retail is offering free postage until very nearly the last minute.

    My Apple Store buddy reported his shop had good business despite the weather.

    If I’d read the CNBC report earlier, I think I would have held off buying until tomorrow.  Still, 85s are very tempting (I’ve been buying in very small tranches, so there’s still a good deal of cash left).  And I guess, now that we’re in the 80s, my urge to buy that went unsatisfied during the ‘motor rally’ has become impossible to resist.

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 12:56 PM #33

    chartguy - 22 December 2008 04:47 PM
    kiwitrader - 22 December 2008 04:44 PM

    I am however hesitant to add to my postion ATM toDCA, if the S&P is to lose support at 870.

    It has looked at times like AAPL is leading the markets (down) today.

    When I was writing the post above I was going to comment that while the S&P was turning back and making a new LOD evry couple of minutes, aapl was hanging onto it’s first LOD crash at 86.25. But, several minutes went by before I posted and by the time I was ready, aapl lost hold and went below $86. So, it looked for a moment like aapl was trying to stop the S&P from falling further after doing so much damage off the open.

    Perhaps it’s the DOW that’s holding the lifeline for everyone today at 8500?

    [ Edited: 22 December 2008 12:59 PM by kiwitrader ]      
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:02 PM #34

    Winterpool - 22 December 2008 04:56 PM

    I dunno about 60, but I’m not ruling it out.  I am counting on a return to the 70s, though I hope we don’t see that until 2009.

    I agree with you.  That is what I meant.  We may not see 60 for some time, but 70’s may be here sooner then we think.

    Apple will continue to grow and their stores will continue to be busy, but the rate will decrease and the stock prices will depend on what the market does.

    The only way aapl goes up is if the market goes up.  I should have figured that out a year ago and got out around now at this time. grin

    We will see 200 again but it may be 3 to 4 years.

    I think the economy is bad and will be getting worse.  Everything that i read regarding the housing market says we will hit bottom in 2011.  So time is on our side as far as jumping back in.  We have been given another opportunity to make the money we lost this year.  We just have to be patient and wait for the bottom.

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:03 PM #35

    Jah, I got suckered in by that period AAPL was holding above 86.

    Given that 85 is our last real support, it feels like the 85s are my last chance to buy.  If it holds, we rally from here (please, Santa bring us at least 90 for Christmas).  If not, there’s no floor anyhow, and I probably shan’t be buying again until 80.  Placed a limit order for 79.90 for my long-term account.

    I need to figure out how to integrate the Law of Murphy into my trading strategies.

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:09 PM #36

    CNBC just reported that a forecast said we would have positive GDP of 4% in 4th quarter of 09.


    I don’t buy it at all.  We all predicted a strong 2nd half of 08 back in Feb and March.  Look where we are now.  If the market saw positive GDP in 2nd quarter of 09 we should be trading in the 9500 range right now.  The market is forward looking and the bears clearly see including myself that we will get much lower.

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:11 PM #37

    My closing price prediction is 83.

    You all have a great day.  Need to go to work while I still have a job. grin

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:15 PM #38

    Which disciple of divination made this forecast?  Q4 2009 is a long way off.  I’ve always presumed current share prices were pricing in a very crappy 2009.

    If the stimulus and free money (thank you, Ben) work, we could have a big boost in late 2009, though I’d expect things to flatten out quickly thereafter.  Pace Andy Zaky, I don’t see us having a roaring recovery from this crisis; there’s too much leverage to work out.

    Again, I wouldn’t really want to make any predictions for late 2009, but I suppose some people are paid to do just that.

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  • Posted: 22 December 2008 01:30 PM #39

    I am being patient for another buying opportunity.  But a part of me wants to punt everything and go back to buck skins and bear knives like Ern the burn.  But I’m placing my bets with Warren Buffet—when others get fearful, get greedy.

    My target is $78 - $82 depending of S&P 500 and Vix. 

    Not incidentally, the stock is going to absolutely ROAR when the rest of the world catches on to the App Store.  This reminds me of 2001-2002 all over again with the public’s delayed response to the iPod and iTunes.  The App Store is COOKING!

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:32 PM #40

    erntheburn - 22 December 2008 04:55 PM

    The S&P is currently breaking down from its rising wedge and trend line support of 880…

    Sorry but the only thing your chart shows is the market making a clear support of 870 since breaking 884, which was our support (not 880).

    Your chart also shows that if 870 fails, the market will then use 850 as it’s next support. So, thanks for posting it so I could explain it to everyone.

    Edit:
    BTW, 875 proving to be strong resistance ATM. A return back to 885 for the close would be very positive. 885 is a must have support (reiterated many times by Art Cashin and several other actual NYSE floor traders interviewd in the past few weeks)to continue to rally.

    [ Edited: 22 December 2008 01:40 PM by kiwitrader ]      
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:39 PM #41

    kiwitrader - 22 December 2008 05:32 PM
    erntheburn - 22 December 2008 04:55 PM

    The S&P is currently breaking down from its rising wedge and trend line support of 880…

    Sorry but the only thing your chart shows is the market making a clear support of 870 since breaking 884, which was our support (not 880).

    Your chart also shows that if 870 fails, the market will then use 850 as it’s next support. So, thanks for posting it so I could explain it to everyone.

    Thanks for the clarification Kiwi, it’s like tag-team wrestling!

    -e

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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:47 PM #42

    Just thinking out loud here…

    If the market lets the S&P out of 875, I will add to my aapl to DCA on my position from last week at 88.50’s. Breaks 870 and ibail, take my loss and go short something (FSLR or GS).

    So, what’s it going to be Mr. Market?

    Edit:
    Mr, Market, let me clarify. Break 875 and stay there longer than a nano-second!

    Edit 2: the sight of Gene Munster (and knowing now that he’s actually working this week) made me double up at 85.77.

    [ Edited: 22 December 2008 01:57 PM by kiwitrader ]      
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 01:59 PM #43

    Kiwi, where did you see Munster?  CNBC?  Did he have anything to report?  Am still debating whether to buy more shares at 85ish.  Like you, I am counting on positive Christmas retail to spark a brief rally into the end of year.  I’m not greedy—I’d just like 90+. 
    :rollsanta:

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 02:22 PM #44

    The Wal*mart iPhone news is confirmed, so I’m not sure how much of a pop the actual announcement will yield.  MacRumours has evidence for an iPhone nano in terms of case selection at accessory-maker XSKN.  Note that XSKN’s case selection accurately predicted the iPhone 3G and 4th gen iPod nano, so it’s not completely ridiculous to read their runes.

    Also, there is evidence in the latest Mac OS build that iMacs and, yes, Mac minis using the nViidia chipset are forthcoming.

    CNBC notes that the iPhone nano rumour is failing to boost the share price.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 22 December 2008 02:31 PM #45

    Winterpool - 22 December 2008 05:59 PM

    Kiwi, where did you see Munster?  CNBC?  Did he have anything to report?  Am still debating whether to buy more shares at 85ish.  Like you, I am counting on positive Christmas retail to spark a brief rally into the end of year.  I’m not greedy—I’d just like 90+. 
    :rollsanta:

    It was cnbc. Just a brief appearance along with another anayst the main subject was online video or something? AAPL mentioned just briefly (as a stock he reccomends) but I expect him to come out with guns blazing if not this week than the days right after Christmas. Thought for sure it would be before Christmas with him reporting how his staff was camped out this weekend outside several Apple stores. There’s still tomorrow and Wed. Perhaps he’s just keeping a running tab until the day after the holiday?

    875 still holding steady. 870 seems key support though…