AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 16 January 2009 04:42 PM #106

    awcabot - 16 January 2009 08:31 PM

    Nice big drop from $82.19 to $80.82 in five minutes, after a rather boring afternoon. Any reasons?
    Similar drop in the S&P, on high volume.

    From my watchpost, seems it may have been reaction to the announcement that Moody’s downgraded Citi’s debt on preferred shares for dividend risk. Then things seemed to recover minutes later on Bill Gross commenting that the worst is over as far as bank balance sheets are concerened.

         
  • Posted: 16 January 2009 04:48 PM #107

    The robustness and the quick rebound of AAPL after that SJ-related rumor from Bloomberg hit is a very good sign, I think. Weeks ago such a thing would have killed the stock. I guess it’s dead enough already…

    [ Edited: 16 January 2009 04:57 PM by lulli ]      
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 05:04 PM #108

    lulli - 16 January 2009 08:48 PM

    ...Weeks ago such a thing would have killed the stock. I guess it’s dead enough already…

    Wait, that’s a good sign?

    I agree there’s a bottom-ish feel to the resilience of AAPL after such long-dreaded news.  But as today demonstrated, now AAPL gets to be just another tech company, subject to the general market and its sector (PC, mobile, take your pick).  So we may have nullified the big downside threat… does that leave us with only as much upside potential as HPQ or MSFT?  Dear lord, I hope not…

    Next week’s earnings may reveal whether the Street will maintain (restore?) the Apple premium v other tech companies.

    Edited because d != t

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  • Posted: 16 January 2009 05:17 PM #109

    I have just looked at the today’s closing-price-to-the-highest-price ratio for AAPL and GOOG, and it seems that AAPL’s is a little better than GOOG’s (something like 40.9% for AAPL vs. 40.1% for GOOG). This is not a scientific comparison, of course. However, I would like everyone to remember that the personal computer industry is especially hard hit in the tech sector at this point, and we have just heard that Steve Jobs’ health problems are more serious than initially thought or hoped for. There’s no guarantee that Steve will be back by the end of June, or ever, for that matter, even though I am still hoping he can solve his health problems and come back to Apple. So, my point is that provided the circumstances, AAPL is not doing any worse than GOOG. The worst fear that AAPL investors have had for several years now has been about the market reaction to the announcement that Steve is stepping down. I believe we have just had this announcement, and AAPL is holding up no worse than GOOG, which has not had anywere close to the amount of bad news that has hit Apple in the past couple of months.

    Hopefullly, the upcoming earnings report will lift us out of this doom and gloom mood. I just think we need to maintain the perspective that we have probably reached the worse-case scenario, and we are doing no worse than GOOG.

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 05:25 PM #110

    What I find so frustrating is that Apple has not yet reported any losses, not even a decrease in units or sales.  Growth is decelerating, which understandably hits (what was) a relatively high P/E equity hard.

    Personally I thought Apple’s business should prove more resilient than Google’s up to a certain point, as Google’s core business (advertising) is exposed to essentially the entire economy, whilst Apple is concentrated amongst students, youth, and the bourgeoisie.  Of course, once the economy deteriorates beyond a certain point, even the bourgeoisie may stop buying Apple, but clearly that hasn’t happened yet.  The latest Gartner report suggests Apple Mac sales continued to grow, even as HP and Dell units declined.

    I understand that the market regards Apple products as consumer discretionary goods, as luxuries, but again, given Apple’s core demographics, I felt they would hold up much better than other discretionary purchases, and such has proven to be the case.

    Q2 (ie right now) is what worries me, which is why guidance next week will be critical.  Of course the market always acts on the bloody guidance, even though it’s such a red herring in Apple’s case.

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    Ah, love, let us be true to one another! for the world… hath really neither joy, nor love, nor light, nor certitude, nor peace, nor help for pain

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 05:38 PM #111

    I wouldn’t look for any upside in the guidance, that’s for sure.  The tone for future guidance was set quite clearly last quarter.  The global economic climate has very low visibility, so Apple will guide very conservatively.  What that means for the stock price, who knows.

    It helps that Apple still has so much room to grow in the Mac and phone markets.

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 05:49 PM #112

    Bloomberg has reached new lows.  They had the nerve to call SJ (on medical leave, hello!), who answered, and flat-out asked them “Why don’t you guys leave me alone—why is this important?”

    Link (well, if only for proof they had the phone call with SJ, the rest of the article is standard health speculation…stuff):  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDmh9xsKBMe4&refer=home

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    The Summer of AAPL is here.  Enjoy it (responsibly) while it lasts.
    AFB Night Owl Team™
    Thanks, Steve.

         
  • Posted: 16 January 2009 05:52 PM #113

    Mav - 16 January 2009 09:49 PM

    Bloomberg has reached new lows.  They had the nerve to call SJ (on medical leave, hello!), who answered, and flat-out asked them “Why don’t you guys leave me alone—why is this important?”

    Link (well, if only for proof they had the phone call with SJ, the rest of the article is standard health speculation…stuff):  http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDmh9xsKBMe4&refer=home

    At least they have just confirmed that Steve is alive and feisty. That’s good news.

         
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    Posted: 17 January 2009 05:35 AM #114

    erntheburn - 16 January 2009 04:52 PM

    Some may have diss’ed my assertion concerning SJ’s return. And quite frankly I don’t care what you think, but I’ll repeat it in any event; according to my 2nd degree of separation source, SJ’s return is NOT going to happen.

    Let’s just dissect this assertion for a moment. You claim to have sources who know, without a shadow of doubt, what Steve is going to do. So, who could they possibly be to have that sort of concrete information?

    Someone high up at Apple, perhaps? Well, they would have to be on the BoD to know for sure, otherwise it’s guesswork, and I think anyone on the BoD would have more integrity than to tell you. Lower than that level and it’s still hearsay and second-guessing.

    How about one Steve’s doctors? Once again, they would be seriously lacking in integrity and breaking doctor/patient confidentiality by telling you.

    Maybe it’s one of Steve’s family or close friends? According to Cringely, Jobs has no friends other than Larry Ellison and I don’t think you and he would mix in the same circles, or that he would tell you what Jobs’ condition was. Would Steve’s family talk to you about his condition? Unlikely.

    Maybe you know Steve himself? After the assorted articles you’ve written, I doubt he would have stayed friends, so that is out.

    So, eliminating pretty much everyone that would know, for absolute certain, what Jobs would do, we are down to the wider circle of people around him, who will not be told for definite what his plans are. It may be that your source has been told to get on with their job as if Steve wasn’t going to return, but that is a far cry from saying that he definitely won’t return. The only remaining option is that SJ is on his deathbed and that news would be confirmed and public knowledge.

    So, Ern, while you may ultimately be right that SJ won’t return, it’s not because your source knows for certain, but that this is their best guess.

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  • Posted: 17 January 2009 05:59 AM #115

    wheeles - 17 January 2009 09:35 AM

    So, Ern, while you may ultimately be right that SJ won’t return, it’s not because your source knows for certain, but that this is their best guess.

    Unless a doctor has pronounced Steve’s illness to be terminal or the BOD has made a final ruling that steve is gone (which I believe would become public knowledge soon), nobody knows for sure. Steve could even tell everyone he knows that he is done with Apple..and then simply change his mind down the road if he recovers and gets bored.

    If steve were to die, I would expect a massive rally of the cult of apple, including many at apple, to carry on his goals. I expect the opposite of the days when he was kicked out of Apple. I expect martyrdom for steve at least for the first couple years which would mean strong ideas continue to come from Apple.