AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:10 PM #76

    omacvi - 16 January 2009 03:49 PM

    Some are predicting 40 but 60 is what I am looking for.  The trading for the last 4 weeks shows lots of weakness in aapl.

    60 is the number I’ve been thinking for a while, but what I am really looking at is the price to hit the lower Bollinger on the monthly chart.

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    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:16 PM #77

    wheeles - 16 January 2009 04:10 PM
    omacvi - 16 January 2009 03:49 PM

    Some are predicting 40 but 60 is what I am looking for.  The trading for the last 4 weeks shows lots of weakness in aapl.

    60 is the number I’ve been thinking for a while, but what I am really looking at is the price to hit the lower Bollinger on the monthly chart.

    I should point out that we could see 100 again before we hit 60.  This may play out over 12 months.  So patience is the name of the game now.

    If Apple comes out with some killer product everything can change.  But given the state of the economy I doubt it.  A new and improved iPhone this summer will help a great deal, but if the market is bad we will see a repeat of this last summer.  This time around we won’t hit 180 but maybe just 120.

    I think next week will be critical.  We will see how the market reacts to Wednesday’s numbers.  I will be in a conference so it will be hard to monitor it too closely.

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:22 PM #78

    ConMan - 16 January 2009 03:09 PM

    I noticed the avatar change. Think this bounce off the lows is a dead cat huh? Financials in particular?


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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:24 PM #79

    Seems like there’s an overall market skepticism to yesterday’s mid-day bounce. S&P has failed to sustain +850 and now must hold up 830-35 or else. DOW is the same story, and must hold 8130. Financials are all falling apart, causing this fizzle. Good for me, as I still have a few shares left of my GS short I took out the first few days of the month.

    Of course this financial fizzle could all be a classic retest of yesterday’s lows followed by an end of day rally.

    Personally, I’m not too interested in buying aapl until earnings day. Only then will the market have any real conviction to trade aapl on. Unless there’s a totally irrational rally pre-announcement (like if Obama flashes an iPhone on Tuesday). In case of that, I may even short it.  :innocent: Sorry!!!

    [ Edited: 16 January 2009 12:26 PM by kiwitrader ]      
  • Posted: 16 January 2009 12:25 PM #80

    cramar - 16 January 2009 03:52 PM

    Dvorak says the chance that SJ will return is NIL . . .

    . . . and Cringely says that doesn’t matter one jot.

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:30 PM #81

    cramar - 16 January 2009 03:52 PM

    Dvorak says the chance that SJ will return is NIL . . .

    Not that it matters but has Dvorak been right, ever?

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:33 PM #82

    Kiwi, great to have you back.

    I have to agree with Eric on this one, just follow the trend.

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:40 PM #83

    ChasMac77 - 16 January 2009 04:33 PM

    Kiwi, great to have you back.

    I have to agree with Eric on this one, just follow the trend.

    Yes, I agree (edit: on following the trend). So I just covered the last of my GS short (at 70.70) on this latest plummet.

    All cash ATM.  tongue laugh

    [ Edited: 16 January 2009 12:50 PM by kiwitrader ]      
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:47 PM #84

    Well this cant be helping: RBC Cuts to $70 frm $125.00

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/01/16/rbc_downgrades_apple_to_underperform_slashes_target_to_70.html

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    Lieutenant Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company…

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:48 PM #85

    aaplcrazie - 16 January 2009 04:47 PM

    Well this cant be helping: RBC Cuts to $70 frm $125.00

    http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/09/01/16/rbc_downgrades_apple_to_underperform_slashes_target_to_70.html

    That downgrade was yesterday.

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    “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:51 PM #86

    Yikes…. apologies all round.

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    Lieutenant Dan got me invested in some kind of fruit company…

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:51 PM #87

    Posted this reply on MarketWatch to Dvorak’s column:

    “The journey is over.”

    Ah! The iPhone naysayer!  John, surely you are da man and wisdom will die with you!

    JD has a track record as perspective and accurate as the average mutual and hedge-fund manager in the last year. He is just speculating out in left-field and his perspicacity and insight are only fully appreciated by himself.

    Therefore I recommend that readers treat his view as one more contrary indication that we are close to a bottom in Apple stock and a wonderful buying opportunity is coming up.

    In the mean time John, you deserve a well-earned rest for medical reasons. Please take it. The world will get along just fine without your useless opinions.

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:52 PM #88

    sleepytoo - 16 January 2009 04:25 PM
    cramar - 16 January 2009 03:52 PM

    Dvorak says the chance that SJ will return is NIL . . .

    . . . and Cringely says that doesn’t matter one jot.

    Some may have diss’ed my assertion concerning SJ’s return. And quite frankly I don’t care what you think, but I’ll repeat it in any event; according to my 2nd degree of separation source, SJ’s return is NOT going to happen.

    It really won’t matter anyways. What he has set into motion has a life of its own, there are good people at the helm, have been groomed over the past two years, and Apple will prosper for it. Unfortunately, it won’t be this year.

    [ Edited: 16 January 2009 12:54 PM by erntheburn ]

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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:56 PM #89

    wheeles - 16 January 2009 04:10 PM

    60 is the number I’ve been thinking for a while, but what I am really looking at is the price to hit the lower Bollinger on the monthly chart.

    We are at that point. The 20d SMA lower Bollinger Band, at yesterdays closing price, was $82.37. Are you going to act? It seems as if that line is being steadily pushed lower and lower.

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    Tightwad.

         
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    Posted: 16 January 2009 12:59 PM #90

    erntheburn - 16 January 2009 04:52 PM
    sleepytoo - 16 January 2009 04:25 PM
    cramar - 16 January 2009 03:52 PM

    Dvorak says the chance that SJ will return is NIL . . .

    . . . and Cringely says that doesn’t matter one jot.

    Some may have diss’ed my assertion concerning SJ’s return. And quite frankly I don’t care what you think, but I’ll repeat it in any event; according to my 2nd degree of separation source, SJ’s return is NOT going to happen.

    The larger point is that traders are happier without the SJ factor and we priced him right out of the stock.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.