Are we seeing unexpected support here at around $81?

  • Posted: 15 January 2009 01:37 PM

    On a day the Dow and Nasdaq plunge more than 2% each, one might expect Apple to crash more than a mere $4 after yesterday’s announcement.

    No?

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2009 02:04 PM #1

    nrabinov - 15 January 2009 05:37 PM

    On a day the Dow and Nasdaq plunge more than 2% each, one might expect Apple to crash more than a mere $4 after yesterday’s announcement.

    No?

    Worries about SJ’s health have reduced the share price by 5% multiple times during the last year, if my memory is correct something of the order of 5 or 6 times, and there has never been a real recovery afterwards. This may be the final nail in the coffin, but all the possible concerns about Steve were basically priced in already. Combined with a possible impression that the diagnosis is in, and options expiration, and the fact that many do not want to miss out on a possible upside after earnings, all this can explain the support at 81.

    But as usual, the market is influenced by so many parameters, many of them random, that nobody can really tell…  grin

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2009 02:15 PM #2

    No.  On November 21 AAPL hit an intraday low of $79.15.  That level hasn’t been seriously retested since.  Today’s activity is a most serious retest of that low.  I believe we have reaffirmed a strong BOTTOM here with over 42,000,000 shares traded at this level in just 3 1/2 hours.

    AAPL has just broke through $82 (intraday high $82.59).  My feeling is that the big boys are jumping in with both feet.

    Why?

    Jobs’ health was the last major, Apple specific, unknown that could impact the stock.  Yesterday’s news doesn’t get any clearer about where he stands.  Although I’d like to see it, I don’t think Jobs will be back, and I firmly believe that is what the market is thinking.  Therefore, Jobs’ health is no longer an issue, and the market can focus exclusively on Apple’s fundamentals.

    By the way, an ISM (my term for PE) of 15 generates an AAPL value of $80.55.

    Signature

    You can’t do more, make more, be more, than the next guy, if you think like the next guy. Think different.

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2009 02:49 PM #3

    lulli - 15 January 2009 06:04 PM
    nrabinov - 15 January 2009 05:37 PM

    On a day the Dow and Nasdaq plunge more than 2% each, one might expect Apple to crash more than a mere $4 after yesterday’s announcement.

    No?

    Worries about SJ’s health have reduced the share price by 5% multiple times during the last year, if my memory is correct something of the order of 5 or 6 times, and there has never been a real recovery afterwards. This may be the final nail in the coffin, but all the possible concerns about Steve were basically priced in already. Combined with a possible impression that the diagnosis is in, and options expiration, and the fact that many do not want to miss out on a possible upside after earnings, all this can explain the support at 81.

    But as usual, the market is influenced by so many parameters, many of them random, that nobody can really tell…  grin

    I think you’re right about that. There’s just too much value in this stock for these prices to go down any further on the Steve Jobs issue alone. It’s basically been priced in already.

    I guess there’s still some method to the market madness grin

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2009 02:56 PM #4

    Gregg Thurman - 15 January 2009 06:15 PM

    AAPL has just broke through $82 (intraday high $82.59).  My feeling is that the big boys are jumping in with both feet.

    Just broke $83.
    This is rock-solid support. I hope I won’t have to eat my words tomorrow though grin

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 January 2009 03:31 PM #5

    Two words: options expiration.

    Signature

    Throughout all my years of investing I’ve found that the big money was never made in the buying or the selling. The big money was made in the waiting. ? Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 15 January 2009 04:40 PM #6

    wheeles - 15 January 2009 07:31 PM

    Two words: options expiration.

    Most likely the dominant factor is renewed hopes for a bailout.
    Seems like the dems have a new $825B proposal.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 15 January 2009 09:55 PM #7

    nrabinov - 15 January 2009 06:49 PM

    I guess there’s still some method to the market madness grin

    We’re happy when the reality distortion field (RDF) influences Apple, Inc. But the RDF comes at a price - the dark side affecting AAPL. The way I look at it, everything has to balance. The RDF giveth, and the RDF taketh away. But I don’t have to like it.

    [ Edited: 17 January 2009 11:52 AM by rezonate ]

    Signature

    Use your powers for good.