AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 01:43 PM #46

    Winterpool - 21 January 2009 05:37 PM

    Back to today’s earnings: do most of you, erm, think Andy is smoking crack?

    I think Andy is a talented statistician, and a very good analyst. There are times when he’s been far closer to reality than most paid analysts. But Andy also has a bullish bent, and he’s been getting more so over the past few earnings calls.

    With that being said, I have no idea if his conclusions are closer to reality than street consensus. I hope they are, but I fear they are very optimistic.

    -ernie

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 01:47 PM #47

    Winterpool - 21 January 2009 05:37 PM

    Back to today’s earnings: do most of you, erm, think Andy is smoking crack?

    Eric probably posted something prior to 22 October, but this is the first hit that I got:

    Yes. I?d like to see AAPL settle into a range one notch below the current range of around $78-90ish until the end of the year and then trend below $78.00 on dismal guidance off of Q1 ?09 but given subscription accounting I don?t know if it is mathematically possible for Peter Oppenheimer to guide 30% lower year over year for Q2 ?09 like he just did in Q1 ?09. In January, if AAPL broke below below its trading range, I ?d see that period of time to begin building a position to sell in May. At any-rate, because of macro-economic forces I believe AAPL the stock will be experience further PE compression as more and more companies guide lower and consumer spending continues to quantifiably tumble. I believe that consumer spending will come to a grinding halt once the middle class receives their Octclobber ?08 investment statements and this grinding halt will negatively effect AAPL.

    Mapping it out, my assumptions are:

    1) The economy will turn ugly.
    2) Consumers will forgo all but what they deem are necessary purchases.
    3) Negativity will weigh down AAPL stock from outperforming.
    4) People getting out from margin and deleveraging will continue to sell into strength.


    FWIW, it looks like big oil is going to try and defend $60.00 a barrel. If OPEC?s announcing a million barrel a day cut-back in production doesn?t move the market, then the market will begin pricing in an even bigger duesy of a recession with oil headed to $50.00 and AAPL breaking lower with the broader market.

    As it sits, I see no reason for AAPL to trend very high and harbor the suspicion that any such talk is motivated by weak hands.

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 01:55 PM #48

    chartguy - 21 January 2009 05:40 PM

    ... (Not sure what this does to your EW analysis.)

    S&P is in Cycle IV (a textbook regular flat from 2000 till now) and about* to start Cycle V, a multi-year rally.  However, this might not be true for AAPL, it seems to be going down some more i.e. likely to underperform market as cited by some analysts.  SJ’s health issue is dragging AAPL despite in denial by many AAPL permabulls and fundamentalists.  The reason why I’ve begun investing in AAPL since 1997 is SJ.  Without SJ, Apple would be any other company.

    *about could mean weeks and months.

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 02:01 PM #49

    Was there a stealth update of the white MacBook?  It seems to share the same chipset (including the respectable nVidia 9400 graphics) of the ‘unibody’ aluminium MacBooks on the Apple Store (also 2 GB memory standard).  That was unexpected.

    This means Apple’s ‘sub-$1000’ ($999, heh) notebook is arguably a modern offering.  I don’t expect the Street to care, but if the the white notebook drops to $800ish, it would actually be a pretty good deal.

    Edited: ah, the Eric quote is from the poll I was remembering.  I wish we had set up a similar poll for this quarter.

    [ Edited: 21 January 2009 02:04 PM by Winterpool ]

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 02:18 PM #50

    Lots of activity today on many of the Feb and Mar options. In some cases, more trades than OI; the Mar 85C and 95C & Feb 80C have nearly twice as many contracts traded as current open interest.  Haven’t fully analyzed what it all means but very interesting.

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  • Posted: 21 January 2009 02:41 PM #51

    erntheburn - 21 January 2009 05:43 PM
    Winterpool - 21 January 2009 05:37 PM

    Back to today’s earnings: do most of you, erm, think Andy is smoking crack?

    I think Andy is a talented statistician, and a very good analyst. There are times when he’s been far closer to reality than most paid analysts. But Andy also has a bullish bent, and he’s been getting more so over the past few earnings calls.

    With that being said, I have no idea if his conclusions are closer to reality than street consensus. I hope they are, but I fear they are very optimistic.

    -ernie

    Too be honest Ern… sometimes it’s just plain nice to hear some positive stuff for a change. Everytime I read your post I get the urgent need to start digging a bombshelter.. wink So a bit of positive Zen is not bad at all in these times…. Nevertheles i hope he is a bit right…otherwise it ain’t no fun

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 02:48 PM #52

    MacB - 21 January 2009 06:41 PM
    erntheburn - 21 January 2009 05:43 PM
    Winterpool - 21 January 2009 05:37 PM

    Back to today’s earnings: do most of you, erm, think Andy is smoking crack?

    I think Andy is a talented statistician, and a very good analyst. There are times when he’s been far closer to reality than most paid analysts. But Andy also has a bullish bent, and he’s been getting more so over the past few earnings calls.

    With that being said, I have no idea if his conclusions are closer to reality than street consensus. I hope they are, but I fear they are very optimistic.

    -ernie

    Too be honest Ern… sometimes it’s just plain nice to hear some positive stuff for a change. Everytime I read your post I get the urgent need to start digging a bombshelter.. wink So a bit of positive Zen is not bad at all in these times…. Nevertheles i hope he is a bit right…otherwise it ain’t no fun

    We need BOTH here in the AFB…IMVHO. As long as Ern doesn’t start pumping his blog, posting links all the time, and talking down to the group like a bunch of children…then I very much like having his additional perspective. Lord knows we’ve got plenty of optimists here, and not enough pessimists…specially since mtdoc got run off again.

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  • Posted: 21 January 2009 02:56 PM #53

    Where in the hell is Tommo???  I liked the old times better…..

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 02:59 PM #54

    MacB - 21 January 2009 06:56 PM

    Where in the hell is Tommo???  I liked the old times better…..

    So did I…especially when AAPL was at $200.  :wink:

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 03:00 PM #55

    MacB - 21 January 2009 06:41 PM

    Too be honest Ern… sometimes it’s just plain nice to hear some positive stuff for a change. Everytime I read your post I get the urgent need to start digging a bombshelter.. wink So a bit of positive Zen is not bad at all in these times…. Nevertheles i hope he is a bit right…otherwise it ain’t no fun

    The irony of it all is that I am the consummate optimist in virtually all aspects of my endeavors, as well as my overall outlook on life. It actually drives my wife crazy, as she thinks I have my head in the clouds far too often. And that’s because she’s what she would call a realist. She’s fond of saying, “Hope for the best, expect the worst, and take anything in between.” Thank god she pays the bills, and not I!

    But when it comes to my work (technology strategy) or trading, I try to be the realist and make calls that I believe are objective and void of emotion. It is unfortunate that since I’ve been writing the blog or participating in great BBs like this one that there’s been a bear market.

    -ernie

    PS: BTW, I practice Zen Buddhism.

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 03:01 PM #56

    erntheburn wrote

    At this point I don?t believe IBM earnings will have any affect on the markets. We?ve just broken through major support at the 817 level, and we did so with pretty convincing force. On top of that we just back-tested that former support and failed. So now it?s strong resistance.

    The next level of support isn?t until 775. So, unless IBM has the power to overcome the entire market, I don?t hold too much hope. I think we may see another attempt at the new resistance, regardless of what IBM reports, and if it fails, then it?s the November Lows, Here We Come!

    -ernie

    Any second thoughts on IBM’s ability to help move the markets?

    kinda like CSCO remember? wink

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 03:02 PM #57

    chartguy - 21 January 2009 05:47 PM
    Winterpool - 21 January 2009 05:37 PM

    Back to today’s earnings: do most of you, erm, think Andy is smoking crack?

    Eric probably posted something prior to 22 October, but this is the first hit that I got:

    Yes. I?d like to see AAPL settle into a range one notch below the current range of around $78-90ish until the end of the year and then trend below $78.00 on dismal guidance off of Q1 ?09 but given subscription accounting I don?t know if it is mathematically possible for Peter Oppenheimer to guide 30% lower year over year for Q2 ?09 like he just did in Q1 ?09. In January, if AAPL broke below below its trading range, I ?d see that period of time to begin building a position to sell in May. At any-rate, because of macro-economic forces I believe AAPL the stock will be experience further PE compression as more and more companies guide lower and consumer spending continues to quantifiably tumble. I believe that consumer spending will come to a grinding halt once the middle class receives their Octclobber ?08 investment statements and this grinding halt will negatively effect AAPL.

    Mapping it out, my assumptions are:

    1) The economy will turn ugly.
    2) Consumers will forgo all but what they deem are necessary purchases.
    3) Negativity will weigh down AAPL stock from outperforming.
    4) People getting out from margin and deleveraging will continue to sell into strength.


    FWIW, it looks like big oil is going to try and defend $60.00 a barrel. If OPEC?s announcing a million barrel a day cut-back in production doesn?t move the market, then the market will begin pricing in an even bigger duesy of a recession with oil headed to $50.00 and AAPL breaking lower with the broader market.

    As it sits, I see no reason for AAPL to trend very high and harbor the suspicion that any such talk is motivated by weak hands.

    I should have added that I mostly agree with Eric on crude. We differ on timing, however. I am looking for February/March lows on crude to go long USO. At this point there has been substantial demand destruction. To compensate the oil traders have been rolling contracts forward and storing physical. The problem with storage is that there is no more room. The AP reported today, “[t]he uptick in February oil prices suggests there are still buyers out there who can either move crude or have found a rare storage facility. Still, Schork doesn’t expect industrial demand to perk up before the fourth quarter of 2009, and crude prices in March could suffer a worse fate than February, dropping below $30 a barrel, he said.”

    I am also looking at crude as an inflation hedge. Said differently, there is some bad juju for the USD: China and Japan have had it with our borrowing. Their economies are declining, and they have to keep them propped up. To do so, they will dump Treasuries and support their home economies. Plus all the other stuff I’ve posted about the Fed/Treasury actions to halt deflation. Bill Gross provides a different angle on the same issue stating, “There is legitimate concern as to the ultimate destination and outcome of our ‘bailout nation.’ Realistically, quantitative easing, a two-trillion-dollar expansion of the Fed?s balance sheet, and the near certainty of future budget deficits approaching 6-7% of GDP should alert bond investors to once again become vigilant as was the case in the 1980s and 90s.”

         
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    Posted: 21 January 2009 03:08 PM #58

    $Billyall - 21 January 2009 07:01 PM

    erntheburn wrote

    At this point I don?t believe IBM earnings will have any affect on the markets. We?ve just broken through major support at the 817 level, and we did so with pretty convincing force. On top of that we just back-tested that former support and failed. So now it?s strong resistance.

    The next level of support isn?t until 775. So, unless IBM has the power to overcome the entire market, I don?t hold too much hope. I think we may see another attempt at the new resistance, regardless of what IBM reports, and if it fails, then it?s the November Lows, Here We Come!

    -ernie

    Any second thoughts on IBM’s ability to help move the markets?

    kinda like CSCO remember? wink

    Well, no. Other than to reiterate that the level on the S&P which was once solid support (818-820) is now proving to be effective resistance.

    -ernie

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    Posted: 21 January 2009 03:14 PM #59

    Here’s some TA that shows a likely reason for today’s advance.

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    Sometimes I sits and thinks, sometimes I just sits
    -Wish you were here

         
  • Posted: 21 January 2009 03:17 PM #60

    erntheburn - 21 January 2009 07:00 PM
    MacB - 21 January 2009 06:41 PM

    Too be honest Ern… sometimes it’s just plain nice to hear some positive stuff for a change. Everytime I read your post I get the urgent need to start digging a bombshelter.. wink So a bit of positive Zen is not bad at all in these times…. Nevertheles i hope he is a bit right…otherwise it ain’t no fun

    The irony of it all is that I am the consummate optimist in virtually all aspects of my endeavors, as well as my overall outlook on life. It actually drives my wife crazy, as she thinks I have my head in the clouds far too often. And that’s because she’s what she would call a realist. She’s fond of saying, “Hope for the best, expect the worst, and take anything in between.” Thank god she pays the bills, and not I!

    But when it comes to my work (technology strategy) or trading, I try to be the realist and make calls that I believe are objective and void of emotion. It is unfortunate that since I’ve been writing the blog or participating in great BBs like this one that there’s been a bear market.

    -ernie

    PS: BTW, I practice Zen Buddhism.

    I know you do…  still undecided: Gnostic believe or Buddhism. Life is a search….