Chartist Quackery

  • Posted: 07 February 2009 04:04 PM

    In other threads this week (and every week) we have AFB chartists predicting the next several months’ stock prices based on technical analysis. 

    For day trading, TA may in fact be a useful tool (academic studies are split on this). But when chartists predict “multi-month” bottoms or rallies, its time to bring in the sanity police. 

    The stock price of AAPL this spring and summer will depend totally on the overall stock market, which will depend totally on investor confidence about an economic recovery, which will depend totally on actual signs of an economic recovery, the presence or absence of which in future months cannot be predicted by charts.

    I would still prefer if AFB was split into two forums: one for the day traders to feast on TA and short term buy and sell signals, and the second for a discussion of how events (and rumors) impact long term prospects of AAPL, no TA welcome.

         
  • Posted: 07 February 2009 09:37 PM #1

    Ditto Artman

    Variety is the spice of life.

         
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    Posted: 07 February 2009 10:48 PM #2

    artman1033 - 07 February 2009 09:27 PM

    Next week, AAPL could go to $120 or go to $90.

    Perhaps both.  :wink:

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    Posted: 08 February 2009 12:33 AM #3

    Quacks can be fun! Learn how to do the 5th wave and you’ll enjoy it!  Or was it the 3rd wave?  I dunno.  Goes up and down and ....hopefully waaaaaay back up again.  Hope so cause I lost a lot on the sea floor last Fall smile  Maybe I shoulda been counting the waves….

    But in all seriousness, I wouldn’t want to segregate anyone.  Just start a a topic of interest for non chartists and all is good.

         
  • Posted: 08 February 2009 12:35 AM #4

    Play Ultimate - 08 February 2009 02:48 AM
    artman1033 - 07 February 2009 09:27 PM

    Next week, AAPL could go to $120 or go to $90.

    Perhaps both.  :wink:

    I need the days and time please.  I know how to repay a favor….

    FWIW, I think it’s more likely we’ll see $90 than we will $120.  Maybe I’m overly nervous, but the carmakers were overlooked the last time, and I see a replay of it.  But THIS time, the carmakers are going to need more than a “one month bridge loan.”  Bush could punt, Obama can’t.

         
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    Posted: 08 February 2009 09:31 PM #5

    macorange - 07 February 2009 08:04 PM

    In other threads this week (and every week) we have AFB chartists predicting the next several months’ stock prices based on technical analysis. 

    For day trading, TA may in fact be a useful tool (academic studies are split on this). But when chartists predict “multi-month” bottoms or rallies, its time to bring in the sanity police.

    ROFL!!!  I have a suggestion.  Just ignor us since we obviously don’t know nuttin’.

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    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore