AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

  • Posted: 06 February 2009 11:16 PM

    I can’t say I take much comfort in this run up.  The car makers are still out there, and sales are still in the tank.  North America auto production for January dropped 62% year over year, so future cash inflows from dealers buying inventory will further exacerbate the Big 2.5’s lack of working capital.

    The stimulus plan does not have enough fizz in it to avoid more cash burn without a loan package that I think is indigestible on the heels of migraine-inducing stimulus package. 

    This might not fully register with Mr. Market until later next week, just before the car makers reconvene the following week.

    [ Edited: 10 February 2009 11:22 PM by DawnTreader ]      
  • Posted: 06 February 2009 11:25 PM #1

    Senators Reach Deal on $780 Billion Stimulus Package

    After a dismal report on unemployment, Democrats succeeded in
    winning the support of enough Republicans to move the package
    toward a final Senate vote.

    Read More:
    http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 06 February 2009 11:31 PM #2

    willrob - 07 February 2009 03:25 AM

    Senators Reach Deal on $780 Billion Stimulus Package

    After a dismal report on unemployment, Democrats succeeded in
    winning the support of enough Republicans to move the package
    toward a final Senate vote.

    Read More:
    http://www.nytimes.com/?emc=na

    Correction, make that “winning the support of 2 Republicans out of 219 in the Congress”.  :wink:

    Signature

    “the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
    -John Maynard Keynes

         
  • Posted: 07 February 2009 12:34 AM #3

    Memories are long of President Pelosi’s trashing of Republicans before the first bailout vote.  She can’t lead, and Obama (and the rest of us) will suffer for it.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 08 February 2009 06:56 PM #4

    Mercel - 07 February 2009 03:16 AM

    I can’t say I take much comfort in this run up.  The car makers are still out there, and sales are still in the tank.  North America auto production for January dropped 62% year over year, so future cash inflows from dealers buying inventory will further exacerbate the Big 2.5’s lack of working capital.

    The stimulus plan does not have enough fizz in it to avoid more cash burn without a loan package that I think is indigestible on the heels of migraine-inducing stimulus package. 

    This might not fully register with Mr. Market until later next week, just before the car makers reconvene the following week.

    I think Mercel brings up a very very good point of caution. Whatever rally we may continue with next week, would time perfectly for a pullback on the Automakers coming back to Washington. But, if they should happen to have their ducks in a rown just enough to keep Mr. Market from throwing the rally away, then we may have nothing more than a healthy pullback before a run at S&P 1000. Personally, I don’t really think or dare to expect anything beyond that level. But beggers can’t be choosers so, let’s rock! S&P 1000 could easily mean appl at $120.

    Looking at 3 and 6 month daily charts, first we must get through and close above 870, then 930. After that those points will become support we must keep in any pullback. Sorry if I’m just stating the obvious, you know the drill.

    Here is the very bullish opening sequence from Fast Money on Friday. Definately worth your time to watch as it contains some good rational and bullish cases for why this rally is a real one. It includes plenty of text in addition to the video in case you have trouble viewing these things. (FYI, just disable pop-up blocker if you do have trouble). Enjoy! http://www.cnbc.com/id/29054093

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 08 February 2009 08:39 PM #5

    Markets are all up in Asia. Looking to be an up day for US as well.
    We’ll see what news may affect the market over the next 12 hours.

    Signature

    “Once we roared like lions for liberty; now we bleat like sheep for security! The solution for America’s problem is not in terms of big government, but it is in big men over whom nobody stands in control but God.”  ?Norman Vincent Peale

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 08 February 2009 09:28 PM #6

    Play Ultimate - 09 February 2009 12:39 AM

    Markets are all up in Asia. Looking to be an up day for US as well.
    We’ll see what news may affect the market over the next 12 hours.

    Unfortunately the stock index futures are down -58 on Dow and -7.2 on S&P at this time. We’ll see if they recover by morning.

    EDIT: Dow now down a hundred. This does not bode well!

    [ Edited: 09 February 2009 12:52 AM by cramar ]

    Signature

    “Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.”    - Jesse Livermore

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 01:24 AM #7

    Monday

    R4         109.35
      midpoint   107.58
    R3       105.81
      midpoint   104.04
    R2       102.27
      midpoint   101.63
    R1       100.99
      midpoint   99.86
    PP       98.73
      midpoint   98.09
    S1       97.45
      midpoint   96.32
    S2       95.19
      midpoint   93.42
    S3       91.65
      midpoint   89.88
    S4       88.11

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 09 February 2009 02:03 AM #8

    A headline running on Bloomberg TV right now, “Geithner delays bank rescue speech to keep focus on stimulus.” This may explain the bad shape of Futures tonight.

         
  • Avatar

    Posted: 09 February 2009 02:28 AM #9

    kiwitrader - 09 February 2009 06:03 AM

    A headline running on Bloomberg TV right now, “Geithner delays bank rescue speech to keep focus on stimulus.” This may explain the bad shape of Futures tonight.

    That’s a pair shape.

    Could care less about the stimulus. The more they spend, the higher inflation.

    Banks guys. Floor the banks and we can do something. Fail to floor the banks and I’ll start talking to contractors about a moat and high walls on an island with good fishing and hunting.

    Signature

    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 08:37 AM #10

    Eric Landstrom - 09 February 2009 06:28 AM
    kiwitrader - 09 February 2009 06:03 AM

    A headline running on Bloomberg TV right now, “Geithner delays bank rescue speech to keep focus on stimulus.” This may explain the bad shape of Futures tonight.

    That’s a pair shape.

    Could care less about the stimulus. The more they spend, the higher inflation.

    Banks guys. Floor the banks and we can do something. Fail to floor the banks and I’ll start talking to contractors about a moat and high walls on an island with good fishing and hunting.

    An interesting update on the hand and glove fit of banks and carmakers:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atjQ8fjgT.kY&refer=home

    Of course Eric is right: the banks are in intensive care and any stimulus package will mean nothing if the credit markets fail.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 09:45 AM #11

    I am amazed AAPL is holding up (even positive this PM) so well after such a run up last week.

    And I am happy to see that my BAC buy on Friday (so far) worked out fine even the ‘Bad Bank’ package is delayed.

    Signature

    “We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office.” - Aesop

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 10:06 AM #12

    One positive from the delaying of the bank announcement is that it gives us one more day to rally before “Sell the News” kicks in.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 10:21 AM #13

    what rally? tongue laugh

    Added: okay i confess…I ‘m waiting for a pullback!

    [ Edited: 09 February 2009 10:24 AM by MacB ]      
  • Avatar

    Posted: 09 February 2009 10:29 AM #14

    Plato - 09 February 2009 01:45 PM

    I am amazed AAPL is holding up (even positive this PM) so well after such a run up last week.

    And I am happy to see that my BAC buy on Friday (so far) worked out fine even the ‘Bad Bank’ package is delayed.

    aapl might be getting some pin action from AMZN this a.m. on their “Kindle” event?

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 10:31 AM #15

    There’s a prevalent rumor that Amazon will start selling their kindle books for the iPhone/Touch platform