AAPL Intraday Updates (Archive)

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 10:42 AM #16

    Anyone else experiencing lag with the new TOS build?

    Edit: seems a System Re-Start was what I needed…..

    [ Edited: 09 February 2009 11:10 AM by aaplcrazie ]

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 10:43 AM #17

    Plato - 09 February 2009 01:45 PM

    I am amazed AAPL is holding up (even positive this PM) so well after such a run up last week.

    And I am happy to see that my BAC buy on Friday (so far) worked out fine even the ‘Bad Bank’ package is delayed.

    I’ve started the morning off rather punchy having sold 95% of the Spank of America stock off at the bell. Trading around the tiny core having reloaded in the thirties.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 10:51 AM #18

    Mercel - 09 February 2009 12:37 PM
    Eric Landstrom - 09 February 2009 06:28 AM
    kiwitrader - 09 February 2009 06:03 AM

    A headline running on Bloomberg TV right now, “Geithner delays bank rescue speech to keep focus on stimulus.” This may explain the bad shape of Futures tonight.

    That’s a pair shape.

    Could care less about the stimulus. The more they spend, the higher inflation.

    Banks guys. Floor the banks and we can do something. Fail to floor the banks and I’ll start talking to contractors about a moat and high walls on an island with good fishing and hunting.

    An interesting update on the hand and glove fit of banks and carmakers:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atjQ8fjgT.kY&refer=home

    Of course Eric is right: the banks are in intensive care and any stimulus package will mean nothing if the credit markets fail.

    People want to sneak a GM, Chysler BK past Mr. Market while he is distracted by the failing credit markets and hyper inflation fears. I assure you, I’ll wine all day about the autos failing and short anything that an increase of 3% national unemployment would hurt.

    Apple wise, the thesis is that Apple sales aren’t falling off as fast as the bears has first thought because the unemployment numbers showed that while 12% of people without college degrees are currently unemployed, less than 4% of college graduates were unemployed. The AAPL thesis hangs on the idea that Apple’s demographic is better educated and that Apple sales aren’t following the unemployment rate.

    On the other hand everybody that I know has slowed spending and so I don’t know how well the thesis will hold up in the markets.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 10:58 AM #19

    Day trading wise aapl scares me right now.  Being out of it’s downtrend going back to October and acting very strange the past week (staying oversold for example way longer than it should).  Anyone care to share any thoughts on some areas of support and resistance?  Thanks

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:19 AM #20

    runedge - 09 February 2009 02:58 PM

    Day trading wise aapl scares me right now.  Being out of it’s downtrend going back to October and acting very strange the past week (staying oversold for example way longer than it should).  Anyone care to share any thoughts on some areas of support and resistance?  Thanks

    There is a sign on the wall that says will trade for food, or tractors, or soup kitchens, or construction projects or something. Maybe the sign only exists in my head, but anyway, trading is how the bills get paid and the lights stay on.

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:22 AM #21

    If we happen to get this high…the Dec. 9 high of 103.60 will be worth keeping your eye on.

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:25 AM #22

    Eric,

    I’m curious about your insights into what it took for these small shorts to finally cover…seems the short trade is off on AAPL for the moment…

    I covered Fri and may go short shortly again…seems too tempting!

    CF

    EDIT:  Shorted at 102.33 for a quickie…or not?

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:29 AM #23

    Level 2 is not showing much selling pressure at least up towards 104.  We also had a good first hour of volume.  Could we see buyers coming in and sellers on strike ahead of Geithner’s plan.  Everyone is talking about a rally to follow post Geithner and stim 2.

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:35 AM #24

    Here is an explanation for the run-up this morning…

    Apple-AAPL upgraded to Buy from Neutral at FTN Midwest (pre-open)    02/09 06:56 AM

    FTN Midwest upgraded Apple as they believe any potential development disruptions from Steve Jobs’ leave will be smaller than previously expected. Target to $140.

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:39 AM #25

    chiforce - 09 February 2009 03:25 PM

    Eric,

    I’m curious about your insights into what it took for these small shorts to finally cover…seems the short trade is off on AAPL for the moment…

    I covered Fri and may go short shortly again…seems too tempting!

    CF

    EDIT:  Shorted at 102.33 for a quickie…or not?

    I have a thesis: people who short are more likely to always be watching the market and so as soon as Apple moved up, smart short-side traders bailed out of their trades or took profits and giggled. Normally, when I take profits out of a short-side trade, I also flip some long to play both sides of the market.

    What I’m looking for today is some .gov type to accidentally say something positive. Otherwise, I’m watching a well-defined flag form on BAC while listening to Vanessa Mae knock out “Moroccan Roll.”

    [ Edited: 09 February 2009 11:43 AM by Eric Landstrom ]

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    Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).

    For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 11:41 AM #26

    runedge - 09 February 2009 03:29 PM

    Level 2 is not showing much selling pressure at least up towards 104.  We also had a good first hour of volume.  Could we see buyers coming in and sellers on strike ahead of Geithner’s plan.  Everyone is talking about a rally to follow post Geithner and stim 2.

    Both Geithner and Obama have postponed their talks till later in the week. This appears to be a good thing, allowing indecision to trump uncertainty.

         
  • Posted: 09 February 2009 11:44 AM #27

    S&P fighting to take out 870 - worth watching. In the meantime AAPL fighting against R2.

    Edit: Placed a short at 102.37 - not yet filled.

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:51 AM #28

    Geithner’s plan is slowly leaking out - not a bad way to “test” the market’s reaction.  There is much talk in the plan about encouraging private investment and building confidence.  If investors feel their money won’t be “nationalized and wiped out” then we will see a nice move up and possibly sustainable rally.  I’m more concerned about stim 2 - I feel it’ll get passed but my party (which is tough to be a party of) the republicans are playing too much politics right now.  Let’s hope on the way to a final version and final vote the street doesn’t get too worried about a failed passage.

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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:52 AM #29

    ‘Til when are the Geithner and Obama talks postponed?

    Agree w/ you Eric, but had expected the short covering to begin sooner/lower.  Guess many shorted from the upper 100s…

    This will end badly in the ST, imho, for the longs, but it’s fun to hold shares for the LT and play this long and short in the interim.

    Cheers!

    CF

         
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    Posted: 09 February 2009 11:54 AM #30

    chiforce - 09 February 2009 03:25 PM

    Eric,

    I’m curious about your insights into what it took for these small shorts to finally cover…seems the short trade is off on AAPL for the moment…

    I covered Fri and may go short shortly again…seems too tempting!

    CF

    EDIT:  Shorted at 102.33 for a quickie…or not?

    As ConMan mentioned, and as cited (as I recall) in the EW or Technical thread, 103.60’s is the area that must breakthrough. I would bet that’s where the shorts are waiting to pounce. Myself included, provided (if) S&P looks like it will crack along with aapl.

    Edit: oops sorry, didn’t see that you were asking Eric directly till after I posted.  :innocent: