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I’ve been waiting for a rally that catches everybody up in it to come and it looks like this is it. However, I believe that this is another bear market rally, which is to say that I think it will eventually reverse. In 1974 the S&P had a month long rally that then collapsed.
While I believe that oil and other commodities is the way to play the slow burn of inflation I notice that people are rotating out of precious metals today and into bonds.
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Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).
For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.
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For what it’s worth, I’m projecting a peak around $104 today.
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“Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” - Jesse Livermore
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I’ve been waiting for a rally that catches everybody up in it to come and it looks like this is it. However, I believe that this is another bear market rally, which is to say that I think it will eventually reverse. In 1974 the S&P had a month long rally that then collapsed.
While I believe that oil and other commodities is the way to play the slow burn of inflation I notice that people are rotating out of precious metals today and into bonds.
Watch the CRB index as it’s moved up the past week. There are some other signs of demand out of China which may push commodity prices up. Add in a weak dollar should risk in foreign markets come back on and this talk of deflation may be “deflating.” If Dr. Ben can pull out dropping rates on the long end of the curve that plus mortgage rewrites could accelerate the floor on housing too.
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NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”
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Thanks for all the input…
Regarding a month rally in ‘74 - That could easily translate into a 3 day rally in today’s crazy mkt, so be careful.
Agreed about 103.60, as Cramar and others have been targeting. It is indeed a trader’s mkt.
Eric, what do you use/track to notice $$ rotating out of metals and into bonds? I need to enhance my detail tracking.
Thanks,
CF
P.S. Just had a funny thought…the longer Geithner and co delay, the higher the mkt goes…giving more of a cushion (read short selling opp) for post announcement…
[ Edited: 09 February 2009 01:03 PM by chiforce ] -
Cramar,
Based on the TA, how low is the next dip likely to be?
Thanks,
CF
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Thanks for all the input…
Regarding a month rally in ‘74 - That could easily translate into a 3 day rally in today’s crazy mkt, so be careful.
Agreed about 103.60, as Cramar and others have been targeting. It is indeed a trader’s mkt.
Eric, what do you use/track to notice $$ rotating out of metals and into bonds? I need to enhance my detail tracking.
Thanks,
CF
Watch lists.
Signature
Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).
For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.
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If you have a chance, Eric, would you please post the key symbols? I have focused on tech and financials, and want to begin to track commodities, currencies, bonds, futures…Thanks, CF
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Did you notice that QQQQ tagged 31.65 and was spanked back down? As Kiwi mentioned last week, if this resistance is broken through, there is some room to run.
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“the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”
-John Maynard Keynes -
Cramar,
Based on the TA, how low is the next dip likely to be?
Thanks,
CF
Ideally not much.
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“Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again.” - Jesse Livermore
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OT:
From the comments over on the WSJ under the Geithner article (i.e., whadda think about our plan before we release the plan, guys?) is the following excerpt:
CHOYIM LO wrote:
...Under Bush?s administration, the Congress? rating is always below Mr. Bush. In the last year of Mr. Bush?s presidency, Mr. Bush got 19% approving rating, Congress was below 15%.Why? This generation, in the Congress, most of them, are mediocre congressman and congresswoman! The notable past example, 99% of them were fooled around by Bush and Cheney?s mushroom and faked WMD theory. And jump to start the unnecessary and 3 trillion dollar Iraq war (the 3 trillion figure was calculated by Prof. Joseph Stiglitz, A Nobel prize winning economist.) Another present outrage and laughing example was to see this kind of Democratic mediocre Congressmen folly dragged by the foxed-witted former Illinois Governor, Rod Blogojevich.- ?NO !?and later ?YES! He is our man, Senator Roland Burris!? case. What a low intelligence! The GOP Congressman and Congresswoman are no better, now they are the students of the ?I hope Obama fails!?, an evil-brain and once druggy, Rush Limbaugh.
What are shame! This kind of low rating Congressman, under their watch, US deficit ballooned to more than 10 trillions under Bush?s administration. The worst, most of Congressman are economy illiteracy and who had failed this country! NOW, NOW! They are planning the future of America and dragging the feet of President Obama? Stimulus plan in this deeply recession and going to depression, dire straits period! I am shivering!
You do not have to ask Paul Krugman, 2008 Nobel Prize economist, just see around your neighbors, how many they lost their job and lost their house! Congressman! Go back to your own state please, especially your own state to see the horrible economic figure!!
To tell you truth, my point is that WE DO NOT HAVE PLAN B, even we pass the closed 800 billions stimulus plan , there are no guarantee we can get through this recession! If we fail, no matter you are republican, democrat or independent. We are no longer the proud American! Because no one will listen to a failed America!!
WE MUST NOT FAIL, WE ARE ALMOST ALL IN AND DO NOT HAVE A PLAN B! God bless America!
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All to say, the drums of doom continue to bang away.
Signature
Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).
For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.
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FWIW: GS acting very strange for the last hour. On an intraday 1-min chart of GS’s been an inverse of the indices since they started to break out. Trying to figure out what the deal is with that. Might be a tell, might be my overactive imagination.
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If you have a chance, Eric, would you please post the key symbols? I have focused on tech and financials, and want to begin to track commodities, currencies, bonds, futures…Thanks, CF
It totally depends on what I’m trading.
Here is an example of a watch list.
^DJI ^IXIC ^SPX SPY SDS ^VIX XLE ^IRX ^TYX ^BKX RKH XLF SKF QQQQ QID AAPL CBI MON MOS XOM FLR GE KO MMM PG AXP BAC C CS GS LEH MER MS USB WFC EDD BP COP DUG RIG SLB AMZN ANF BBY COH COST TGT TIF WMT ABT GSK JNJ LLY PFE MRK SGP AMAT CSCO GOOG MSFT NFLX IBM INTC RIMM CREE ENER FSLR SPWR ADM CF DOW MOS POT AKAM DIVX NVDA ASEI BRKA CWCO MA NKE SLV USO
FWIW, I prefer to trade financials.
Signature
Black Swan Counter: 9 (Banks need money, Jobs needs a break, Geithner has no plan, Cuomo’s grandstanding, .Gov needs a hobby, GS works for money, flash crash, is that bubbling crude?).
For those who look, a flash allows one to see farther.
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FWIW: GS acting very strange for the last hour. On an intraday 1-min chart of GS’s been an inverse of the indices since they started to break out. Trying to figure out what the deal is with that. Might be a tell, might be my overactive imagination.
Both GS and MS have talked about paying back the tarp money - that would certainly pressure the common.
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NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”
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Cramar, You are earning every penny, having the guts to hold through this scene!
Eric, Thanks for the symbols…I assume the commodities, currencies, futures are in there? I’ll sift ‘em out later…
This is fascinating…unbelievable in fact. We should form a consensus on when to go short for a quick trade! I know, after we test 103.60…depending on govt announcement timing…
cf
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SPX is taking out the 50 day SMA and the Dow is not far behind. Bollinger bands are also tightening indicating a decent move in one direction or the other is coming. Right or wrong, Pisani on CNBC is talking how dangerous it is to short the market the next few weeks - Gordon C? Saying the same until SPX hits 900.
Signature
NOBAMA / Carter 2012 - “Yes we can - we just figured out a way - it’s called the American deem”
